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Wednesday, August 19, 2020

What to take away from the Patriots Quarterback competition so far.

All three quarterbacks in the Patriots organization have been going up against the top secondary unit in the NFL. So far the two frontrunners have thrown a total of seven interceptions.

As I open up article after article, there are five names that stand out when passing drills are discussed. I am sure the others are getting work in but the five guys are all depth chart guys. Byrd, Olszewski, Ross, Harris, and the one exception, third round draft pick Devin Asiasi.

Right now, Belichick is naming Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham co-starters. Which many believe that Bill just is doing that to improve Stidham but has already decided on Newton. It's a possibility, doubtful but only Belichick knows for certain.

Thus far, strictly off pure passing ability, although he has thrown more picks, Stidham is the best QB so far; completing 73% of his passes. He has completed 27 of his 37 passes, yes I know 5 have been picks. His decision-making could be better than what is but it's still pretty good. So far he's showing he could've used one more year to polish that up but he's looking good otherwise. 

He's also showing that he's willing to test the coverage. Too many young quarterbacks or quarterbacks in general have talent but can be too careful when testing a defense. Main example, Tyrod Taylor. Others like Nathan Peterman take risk without thinking. Again he could use a little bit more polish but I don't know he'll get that from Newton, who so far isn't showing a great deal of accuracy improvement. 

Newton finished 2018 with a completion percentage of 67.9%. So far Newton has completed 64% of his passes, almost 4% less; completing 24 out of 33 passes. He's barely better than Hoyer but unlike Hoyer, Newton has two interceptions.

Again as a pure passer, Stidham is looking like the better quarterback. Newton has been practicing and throwing all spring summer, so I am not gonna buy the rust excuse. He looks like he's in the best shape of his life. Plus, Newton could've sat and played catch to keep his arm loose.

Once the quarterbacks get into scrimmages, Newton will be able to make up for his lack of passing talent with his ability to run the football. Which is an area Stidham is lacking in comparison to Newton. If we learned anything from the Ravens, along as one has some form of running back under center, they don't need to be elite throwing the football. (I'm aware Jackson completed 66%)

So the third man in this competition hasn't made really any mistakes but he's also not gonna take many risks. That's veteran game manager and the only quarterback on the roster with a Superbowl ring, Brian Hoyer.

When it comes to interceptions thrown so far, Hoyer has a great big o'le goose egg, a nice fat zero. Hoyer has completed 62% of his passes, that's about what we would expect from him. Hoyer has completed 23 out of 37 passes. Which is why Bill named the other two co-starters.

Now low completion percentage doesn't mean anything if you have help, whether it's your own ability or help from your teammates. Five winning quarterbacks last season had under 64% competition percentage. 

Aaron Rodgers 62% went 13-3, Tom Brady 60.8% went 12-4, Josh Allen 58.5% went 10-6,  Jared Goff 62.9 went 9-7, and Carson Wentz 63.2% went 9-7. 

Those five had help. All three of the Patriots quarterbacks will have help. All they have to do is be smart with the football and manage the game. 

This is why I have said with Hoyer under center, he has the ability with this team and only this team to help them make Superbowl birth. Just like Trent Dilfer did in 2000 with the Ravens. Now Stidham and Newton take more risk, thus I do not know if the team can get there dispute those two. 

When looking at this battle, so far Stidham is looking like the better quarterback thus far but Hoyer is the safer decision. If Stidham continues to throw interceptions and Newton's experience finally kicks in and he stops; that might be enough to make up for his accuracy issues to win the Job without his legs.

Camp stops September 6th and  the Patriots first game is September 13th against the Miami Dolphins. Unless Belichick is going quarterback by committee and doing some Rodger Staubach and Craig Morton rotation and alternation like Landry did in Dallas, a starter will be named by September 6th.

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