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Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Patriots Sign Jabrill Peppers To A One Year Deal

When a team signs a 26 year old free agent that's already played for two teams and missed 20 games over his career, one doesn't tend to get too excited. However, learning that player was a Heisman trophy finalist and a late first round draft pick can change the doubt one has to mixed emotions that something maybe there and that's what the Jabrill Peppers signing does.

The first thing people need to under is that the only reason he's played for two teams is that the Browns traded him for OBJ which at the time was huge. The Giants felt he made the deal worth while when they shipped out their number one receiver.

Out of 81 possible games, he played in a total of 61, starting 59. He's got 25 passes defended and 4 interceptions to his name. He's forced 4 fumbles and recovered 5. He has 333 tackles with 13 quarterback hits and 4.5 sacks. He's averaged 22 yards on 34 kickoff returns and 8.35 yards on 83 punt returns but he's also fumbled 7 times, losing 2 of them. 

There goes the idea that he has a nose for the football. His recoveries were from his own mistakes.

Looking at his scouting reports coming out of Michigan, he was a hybrid defender with speed and good agility for change of direction. That was good at providing containment on the outside. It was said he also struggled in pass coverage and open field tackling. Scouts felt he was undersized and had poor control over his emotions. 

He had a left hamstring issue in college. As a pro he's had a toe sprain and a grade 1 knee strain. A pulled groin, a tailbone fracture, an ankle sprain, a strained hamstring, an right ACL tear and high ankle sprain. So in his short career, he's been banged up as much as Gronkowski it seems.

Now scouts compared him to Eric Weddle and Johnathan Cyprien when he came into the draft. Being fresh off his rookie contract, for a guy with injury history like he's had and with his level of production, the one year contract the Patriots signed him to seems about right. The worst thing that happens is he makes the 53 and gets Injured. The best thing is he earns a new contract. 

I would say don't get overly excited with this signing but don't be disappointed either. If Belichick can get the level of production out of him that he got from Philip Dorsett, then it's a good signing. I know Dorsett played receiver but still. He got something out of what's basically considered a bust as first rounders go.

Kraft Set The 2022 Goal For The Patriots, "Advance In The Playoffs!"

It's been a long time since Robert Kraft took over the Patriots. Scott Secules is no longer the Patriots number 10 and the uniforms have come a long way but how close are the Patriots to their 90s teams? In 2021 the New England Patriots went on a huge spending spree and the owner took notice. This was two seasons after their last superbowl appearance and one season since they lost Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback to play the game. And only a few weeks since they realized Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham weren't the future.

Kraft was not happy in 2021 when having to spend. Here are three quotes from Kraft about his spending spree in March of 2021.

"We're not in the business to be in business. We're in this business to win..." "In my 27 years as owner, I've never had to come up with so much capital before..." "We always made fun of the teams that spent a lot in the offseason. So we know nothing is guaranteed, and I'm very cognizant of that."

All 2021, it seemed the Patriots were searching for their identity and they eventually found it. The Patriots went to the playoffs in 2021 for the first time since the 2019 season but looked unprepared for their matchup. The Patriots identity in 2021 was a wildcard team. Not a playoff winning team but simply a wuidcard team and again Robert Kraft took notice.

In March of 2022 the Patriots owner said, "More than anything, it bothers me that we haven’t been able to win a playoff game in the last three years.”

Fans have been going nuts because the Patriots have not been spending huge piles of money and mortgaging the future by messing with contracts. Fans have expressed confusion as they found it easy to restructure contracts to make up cash to sign big name free agents now. Robert Kraft had this to say about what it takes to win. 

Kraft said, "I look forward to hopefully having a great draft this year. That’s the only way you can build your team for the long term and consistently that you have a chance of winning is having a good draft.” 

Fans have been saying fire Belichick, at least as general manager. That Belichick's inactivity this free agent period means he doesn't know how to be a general manager. With Kraft's comments, anyone upset with the Patriots offseason needs to direct their anger at the proper person.

As for Kraft, Kraft doesn't care that Fans want to win in 2022 or maybe 2023 before going into a long rebuild. Kraft wants to be in the playoffs every year and isn't going to let the Patriots sacrifice three of the next five seasons, to win one a ring in one of the upcoming two seasons. It sounds like Kraft has set the goal for the 2022 season for the Patriots. 

It's win a playoff game or bust. The Patriots were a wildcard team in 2021, do they have the talent and coaching staff and can they draft well enough to win a playoff game? The Bills and Dolphins have certainly made it a lot tougher. They may be able to sneak into the playoffs again in 2022 but winning in January is another story. And at the moment on paper, the Patriots may actually be worse than where they finished last season.

Friday, March 25, 2022

Is Mac Jones Ahead Of The Curve OR Was His Floor Higher Than Orginally Believed?

Between 2000 and 2001 Tom Brady played in 16 games, starting 14. Now there may have been circumstances that led to a 6th round pick starting for the Patriots in 2001 but it happened. Now ask anyone and they will tell you a first round selection should perform better than a six round selection. Charlie Weiss and others have said that "Mac Jones is ahead of where Tom Brady was at this stage of his career." Duh, if he was where Brady was or worse, we'd be rioting in Patriots nation.

So let's see how Brady looked statistically in his first sixteen games. And I said sixteen which means no playoff stats.

Brady completed 265 passes of 416 attempts. He threw for 2839 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. 145 times he threw for a first down. He was sacked 41 times and led the Patriots to 3 fourth quarter comebacks. He had 36 carries for 43 yards with 7 first downs. He also had 1 catch for 23 yards and a 1st down.

Before I give Mac's stats to compare, I wish they had comeback attempts. I don't remember every game for Brady but Mac Jones got the Patriots in position to take the lead on a field goal in week four. That's not going to show up. And that's just one example. Also Mac played 17 games, so I am going to share his rookie season stats.

Mac completed 352 of 521 passes for 3801 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. 177 throws went for a first down. He was sacked 28 times and had 1 fourth quarter comeback. In Mac's seventh game, he threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception. So strictly passing Mac had the better passing stats. On the ground Mac ran it 44 times for 129 yards with 22 first downs.

And according to pro football reference Brady fumbled it 12 times in his first sixteen games. Mac's rookie season he only fumbled 7 times.

Now like Brady, Mac Jones is still developing and he's also working with a throwing coach to add arm strength, just like Brady did.

Jay Williams called Mac Jones a "Mid tier franchise quarterback," and said he was in the right situation to succeed.

Keyshawn Johnson said Mac's rookie season had no expectations. He said "in year two I need you to do a little bit more for me and in the third year I need you to be a pro bowl type quarterback..."

Max Kellerman said "Mac Jones is ahead of the curve, first year he's where you might want a guy to be in his second year." 

Kellerman was basing his statement as a continuation to what Johnson said.

Few weeks ago there was another media personality who defended Mac Jones as well. Greg Jennings praised Mac Jones intelligence. He also said that Mac could lead a team in the closing minutes to victory but that we "want Mac to be Tom Brady in Tom Brady moments."

Now Jennings, Johnson, and Kellerman all pretty much agree that Mac is in the same development path as Brady. However, I believe it was Kellerman who said that Brady's development plan was "perfect."

Now Prior to the draft I came to the same conclusion that Charlie Weiss and June Jones did. That Mac Jones was the best passer in the draft. My blog is still on here if you wanna check. I stood bye and stand bye my statement. Sure Mac couldn't throw with power down field but he's developing that now. Mac may never be the guy he succeeded on the ground but the Patriots don't need Mac to be Cam Newton with his legs because he has the ability to beat people with his head instead. 

So how does Mac improve in 2022? He cleans up his game. He makes better decisions. And puts a few more touchdowns on the board. All while managing the game and doing what's asked of him by the Patriots. As fans that's all we can ask for. Statistically we'd like to see Mac improve on his stats from 2021 but he doesn't need to if the Patriots offense improves. He just needs to play smarter and trust the game plan to do the rest.

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

The Patriots Met With Mailk Willis And Joshua Dobbs, So What!

The Patriots apparently met with Malik Willis from Liberty and instantly people jumped on the Belichick is looking to dump Mac train. First off, it's a team's job to do their home work on quality prospects. They're looking for anything they can use in their favor down the line. The Patriots meet with a lot of players, so this meeting shouldn't be given too much attention.

Around the 14th of March, the Patriots re-signed Brian Hoyer to a two year contract. Hoyer has a good mind and Belichick has said Hoyer is the most knowledgeable person when it comes to the Patriots offense but Hoyer has shown that he is not the guy the Patriots want to step in. However, it's safe to say that things haven't gone as planned at the position.

The once projected hier to Brady's thrown beat out Hoyer and then fell out of favor apparently with Bill Belichick as he got benched for a few weeks in 2020. Stidham is in the final year of his rookie contract. The Patriots are going to be looking to replace Stidham. And with Hoyer under contract for two seasons, now is the time to get their next backup quarterback.

Now the Patriots met this week with Joshua Dobbs. Notice there was no talk about replacing Mac with Dobbs. Why? Because although it's not impossible that the Patriots are going to replace Mac Jones, however it's highly improbable. And the quarterback class is supposed to be one of the worst in years.

People point to Belichick replacing a 29 year old Drew Bledsoe with a young Tom Brady. As much as I love Drew, he wasn't the best under pressure. And the offense seemed to run more smoothly under Brady. Sure Bledsoe was capable of the big play but Brady already seemed better under pressure. And Brady had a few starts under his belt and gave reason to replace the franchise quarterback. I told everyone the Patriots wanted Mac when they thought Bill wanted a mobile quarterback and the Patriots drafted Mac.

So again, don't put too much stock if any into the Patriots looking at quarterbacks. Remember the Patriots had Brady and Jimmy G, and still drafted Brissett. Brissett wasn't going to replace the guys in front of him and no quarterback from this draft class is currently being looked at to replace Mac Jones. Am I wrong? Well the Patriots did sign both Cam Newton and AB, so maybe but they also paid for signing them. And not in a good way. So take my opinion as you will but please use some logic. 

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Coach Chang Spoke About The Rainbow Warriors And How The Program Is Coming Along.

Timmy Chang was on 'call the coach' with Bobby Curran on ESPN. He gave some insight to what's going on with the University of Hawaii football team. Now before I get into what coach Chang had to say, I really have a problem with Hawaii media making it seem like the only criteria a coach needs is to be from Hawaii, or a former member of the program. It's like the media out there is saying knowledge and ability don't matter. That is a huge red flag for someone who wants the program to succeed.

Coach Chang talked about his offensive coordinator. Curran said that "Shoemaker has a whatever works offense." And Chang replied, "yeah, he has a unique style." Chang praised Shoemakers football IQ and admitted that he hired someone he didn't know, which should go to help dispel the notion that Chang was only hiring former teammates and ex-coworkers.

Chang would later talk about his staff, saying they're all "like minded." He said not all his staff was from or knowledge of the islands. And broke down the diversity he hired. This was good to hear because the media wasn't installing a lot of favor in the current staff for fans outside the islands. Chang mentioned the staff "having too much fun." Curran tried to give Chang a way out but instead Chang went into details about what he meant.

Chang mentioned that about half of the scholarships are gone and basically he hopes after spring ball to get high level talent to come to the islands. For them to use Hawaii as a stepping stone in their college career. I don't know that I like that because he's essentially describing Hawaii as a D2 school with D1 ranking. Chang mentioned that the roster building was more about "depth" than anything. 

Michigan got brought up and Chang mentioned about telling the students to play to get noticed at the NFL level.

Chang mentioned that being a coach is more than just football. That's something people forget. Chang talked about preparing them for not only life after they graduated but helping non Hawaiians assimilate to the lifestyle. And making them Hawaiian to avoid problems while there.

Chang went on to talk about the team is still trying to figure out it's identity and it's limitations. Acknowledging that the team can only do what the talent allows for, regardless of what they want to do. That spring practice will be "three times a week." He also mentioned that roster size is not really in his control.

Chang got asked about tailgating but said something interesting. On top of the stadium tickets, Chang wants to try to increase revenue by "having tickets for outside the stadium."  Chang mentioned an "outside viewing area." With how small the stadium is, the university needs to do whatever it can while the new stadium is being built. Maybe the stadium campus will become the spring ball campus.

The one thing that Chang seemed to stress throughout the interview was that he was not coaching with an iron first. That his staff and players would have input. Mainly the staff. He also mentioned learning from each other a few times. Although Chang is the head coach, it almost sounds like for now it's head coach by committee. That may change but that's how it sounded. I don't know if I like the sound of that but it's gotta be better than what Hawaii had under Todd Graham.

OBJ Is No Longer A Number One Receiver But His Name Will Demand Money.

Talent before name. That is one thing I hear when people talk about players in the NFL. However, with OBJ. It appears that people are just seeing his name. On top of that, in 2021 OBJ could've came to the Patriots. Instead he chose to go elsewhere and said if Brady was in New England things would've been different.

The Patriots made the playoffs and the thing that really killed them in the playoffs was not having a pass catcher really show up. OBJ could've helped the Patriots win at least one playoff game. In my opinion, If OBJ wanted to be a Patriot he would already be one.

OBJ played with Eli Manning, Baker Mayfield, and Matthew Stafford. Now I'm not going to look at OBJ's touchdowns or yards because there are varying factors that play into that. I am going to look at OBJ's seperation ranking and his true catch percentage over his last five seasons and then compare him to the Patriots receivers's last two seasons.

So as for his true catch percentage over the past five seasons, OBJ has had the following percentages.

2017: 78.1%, 2018: 84.6%, 2019: 74.7%, 2020: 76.7%, 2021: 78.6%. 2018 appears to be an anomaly.

Over those same years he was ranked the following in separation. 2017: 28, 2018: 27, 2019: 23, 2020: 25, 2021: 56.

OBJ played in 14 games in 2021, so I cannot give him a pass on his target seperation ranking for 2021 and his true catch percentage is on track with his career stats.

Now let's look at what the Patriots 2021 receivers last two seasons true catch percentage and target seperation rankings.

Nelson Agholor
2021: 92.5%, 2020: 80.0%
Kendrick Bourne
2021: 96.5%, 2020: 77.8%
Jakobi Meyers
2021: 89.2%, 2020: 90.8%
N'keal Harry
2021: 75.0%, 2020: 86.8%

Now Agholor and Bourne both increased in production with their true catch percentage, there's a chance that OBJ can but looking at his last 3 season to avoid the injury argument, OBJ catches the ball about as well as N'keal Harry. True catch is all on OBJ and he has only had one season above 80% true catch rate in his career. 

OBJ over his career has a 78.5% true catch rate, Harry over his last two seasons has a 80.9. I didn't include Harry's 2019 because he was barely targeted.

Now let's look at the target seperation rankings.

Nelson Agholor
2021: 72, 2020: 59
Kendrick Bourne
2021: 38, 2020: 52
Jakobi Meyers
2021: 65, 2020: 14
N'keal Harry
2021: 108, 2020: 72

OBJ couldn't get seperation in 2021. He was barely better than Meyers who fans went from calling a number one at the beginning of the season to a number 2 / 3 at the end. There's a chance that he could come to New England and pull a Kendrick Bourne. However, OBJ is 3 years older than Bourne and receivers tend to get slower as they age. So OBJ would most likely follow Agholor's seperation route if anything. 

Going off of his 2021 analytics, OBJ would be coming in to 2022 with N'keal Harry hands and Jakobi Meyers feet. If that screams number one to you, then continue to scream for the Patriots to shell out a boat load of money for OBJ. If it doesn't, it's understandable. OBJ is not the guy known for making the one circus catch anymore. He's no longer a number one. The Patriots have made good over the years with twos and threes. 

The question is would OBJ take number two money and accept how the Patriots would use him? Maybe I'm misjudging his character but I think his greed will send him elsewhere. Last season, maybe there were better odds of him winning a ring in L.A. but now that he's won a ring, he's playing for money because lord knows how many seasons he has left. So we'll see if he wants to play for the Patriots but I don't think he cares where he plays asong as he gets paid.

Resetting The Patriots Needs

The Patriots needed seven positions entering the 2022 off-season. Outside corner, inside linebacker, free safety,, tackle, nose tackle, receiver, and receiving back. The Patriots had some other moves that made sense but these were their top needs.

The Patriots re-signed Devin McCourty, Brian Hoyer, Ja'Whan Bentley, Trent Brown, Matthew Slater, and James White. The Patriots also signed Ty Montgomery and Terrance Mitchell while they traded for Mack Wilson. The Patriots also traded away Shaq Mason. This on paper changes things a little. 

The re-signing of Trent Brown could change the Patriots needs from tackle to guard. However, if the Patriots decide to shift Trent Brown to left tackle and Wynn to inside, the tackle position could still be open. If they wanted to move leave things the way they are or move Trent Brown to left tackle, Onwenu to right tackle and Wynn to guard, they still presumably need a guard. The offensive line is now a need, the exact position depends on what they plan on doing.

At linebacker, the Patriots have two development guys behind Bentley in Mack Wilson and Cameron McGrone. This means the Patriots may not have to make a move at inside linebacker. It all depends on how they see Wilson and McGrone, however, if they do want to get a quality player, it has to be in the first four rounds. The moves they made have reset the need for the position.

The Patriots re-signed Devin McCourty and there are some questions about Joshua Bledsoe. Bledsoe is another strong safety. And although the Patriots have D-Mac they still need his replacement. They have McCourty on a one year deal. This means on day two, they need to bring in his replacement.

At running back the team decided to get away from Jacob Johnson, which could impact the running game. They lost Brandon Bolden which was another issues. However, they brought in Ty Montgomery and re-signed James White. That moves the need of a receiving back to a late day three - UDFA priority. The Patriots worked hard on getting the backs ready for the passing game in 2020 so that probably explains why they got rid of Johnson.

In 2020 the Patriots got their pass rushing defensive tackle, they still need their run stopping-pocket moving nose tackle. They also need a number one pass catcher, either a flanker or a slot receiver, preferably a deep slot. The Patriots number one must be a short to intermediate guy with the ability to burn people deep. However, their main need is outside corner.

The Patriots need a short to intermediate receiver. Preferably a flanker or deep slot guy. Someone who can get open underneath but who has the burner speed to be a threat deep. That is the type of number one the Patriots need. Fans have been calling for a number one who fits in the Buffalo, Kansas City, or Baltimore offense. Mac Jones is not Lamar Jackson, Kyle Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Russell Wilson. He doesn't need a number one built for their style offense. Mac needs more of a Jahan Dotson or Jerreth Sterns.

The Patriots apparently told Jacob Johnson that they were getting away from the fullback position. If one looks at the number of H-backs or superbacks the Patriots have acquired recently it makes sense. The H-back is a jack of all trades that can play fullback. The Patriots currently have h-backs Keene and Smith, they also have move tight end Henry, and in-line tight end Asiasi. Both Keene and Smith can line up at receiver or anywhere in the backfield but having a third guy with their skills wouldn't hurt. However, getting another move target to take pressure off of Henry would also be helpful. As for Asiasi, he's kinda a tweener between in-line and move tight end. 

As for receiving back, J.J. Taylor should be gone. The Patriots almost brought in Fournette, so they're not content with their running back room yet. There are a number of pass catching backs in this draft. Keep an eye on Zonovan Knight N.C State and Calvin Turner Hawaii as possible acquisitions.

Resetting the team needs here are what I think they need by priority:

1) Outside corner
2) Free safety
3) Offensive line
4) Inside linebacker
5) Defensive Tackle
6) Receiver
7) Developmental outside corner ***(merges with number 9 with addition of Malcolm Butler.)***
8) H-back or move tight end
9) Depth pieces

This could change as the Patriots are still making moves but at the moment, they still have holes. The Patriots currently have the 21st, 54th, 85th, 127th, 170th, 200th, 210th draft picks. As unpopular as it may sound, the best thing the Pats could do is to trade the 21st down to whom ever holds picks between 27 and 32 and acquire as many mid round picks as possible.

Staying in the first round is valuable because of the fifth year option. I don't think the Patriots want to sacrifice that however, it's not unheard of for the Patriots to leave the first round. The further the Patriots trade down, the more a team will have to give up. Unfortunately life isn't E.A. Sports or the PFF draft Simulator. The Patriots are not going to acquire 15 picks before leaving the first round because teams aren't going to sacrifice that much for the bottom third of draft prospects in round one.

Monday, March 21, 2022

Will The NFL Ever Tap The True Potential Of The Tight End Position?

In today's NFL tight ends are more utilized then every. Tight ends are no longer just under weight tackles. They're more athletic fullbacks and bigger bodied receivers. There are three types of tight ends, Inline, move, and H-back. However, tight ends have five position letters (H,F,Y,U,I). Each of the three types with their own speciality. And a good combination of the bunch can cause nightmares for defensive coordinators and secondaries.

For years I have said the future of the NFL was a multi tight end offense. I've often used the term magic 3 tight end set. Which is just the 13 personell. However, I do believe the talent is there for teams to run 14 and 15 personnel sets. And I'm not just talking about in short yardage redzone areas but as a main offensive grouping.

There are more traditional tight ends out there. Gronkowski is or was the standard and Kittle is supposed to be right there with him. These are the extra tackles who can catch. That might be an understatement of their skills but you get the picture. There are some coordinators who acquire these guys and waste away their receiving abilities (Mike Martz) but they are still the safety blanket in the league.

Then there's the move tight ends. Jimmy Graham and Darren Waller are just two that come to mind. These are guys who are known for their receiving skills more than their blocking skills. They can be used in a variety of ways. But their size makes it a nightmare because they're typically too big for a corner to cover and too fast for a linebacker. Often they have to be doubled. Which frees up another player or takes pressure off the quarterback.

And then there's the H-back position. It's an old school tight end running back, now being referred to as superback. Is it superback or super back? Jonnu Smith, Dalton Keene, Danny Vitale, Colt Lyeria and Jace Amaro are five quick names that spring to mind. While they don't always fit the ideal, most are oversized receiving running backs that can block like a fullback in both the run and the pass. Again like with move tight ends, they can be an issue covering. And the the fact that they can be moved from behind the quarterback to behind the tackle and occasionally as a receiver, they may be the most dangerous of all three types.

The Magic 3 tight end set ideally has one of each type plus a half back and a receiver but it's not uncommon to see the 23 personell or even a grouping with two receivers. That's where I think most offensive coordinators limit tight end use due to either lack of imagination or poor scouting. The Patriots are one of the teams that have ran a four tight end set in the past. However they used it sparingly as they didn't appear to trust their players.

In today's NFL, there's no reason why 14 personell cannot work. With how good h-backs are coming out of college, there's no good reason we don't see more 15 personell sets. Let the H-back be the main ball carrier, and run with a mix of the other two types. The NFL is evolving and tight ends are barely reaching their true potential because teams are stuck in the 1980s and 1990s. Bill Belichick is one mind that I can see bring out this as he has a great knowledge of football history. John Harbaugh is the other. The question is, will the NFL ever tap the true potential of the tight end?

Sunday, March 20, 2022

Are The Patriots Set At Interior Linebacker?

One of the seven needs I had for the Patriots going into free agency was linebacker. Especially with Bentley, Van Noy, Collins, and Hightower being free agents. The Patriots re-signed Bentley on a 2 year deal for $9 million dollars. I think Bentley is a solid number 2 but there are some who view him as a mid tier number 1. So to be fair I'll average it out and call him a low tier number one or elite number 2.

The Patriots also traded for Mack Wilson from Cleveland. I listened to a lot of scouting reports and read a few. Wilson was projected 2 ways. A number 1 starter who would go in the first two rounds. Or a development number 2 prospect with the athletism to become a lower tier starter. Wilson was drafted in round 5 by the Browns, so we know how the NFL saw him. Also if Danny Shelton is any indication on how well Cleveland develops players, it could take until 2023 before the Patriots get the best from Wilson. 

The Patriots will also have Cameron McGrone returning in 2022. Like with Wilson, I went back and listened to and read his reports. McGrone was another guy people were split on. Some guys saw a starter with limited tape that would go in late round 2, early round 3. Others saw a Developmental backup with starting potential, just like they did with Wilson. And projected McGrone as a mid day 3 prospect. Again the NFL must of agreed because he fell to round 5.

Looking back at Bentley's scouting reports, he was considered a late day 3 to udfa selection. People had him as a depth piece at best but he's over achieved. So if the Patriots did their homework on McGrone and Wilson, they have three lower tier starters at best. And if they didn't, they have a lower tiered starter and two backups at middle linebacker. 

If the Patriots don't draft a linebacker in the first 4 rounds, we'll know what they think they have in these 3 guys. The Patriots play a lot of nickle and use safeties as linebackers, so they really only need 3 of linebackers inside. So Mayo and or Steve Belichick need to develop them. Something Kraft implied the entire staff needed to improve on after the Patriots had their huge spending spree last off-season.

Currently outside corner, tackle, and I'm going to say free Safety are bigger issues at the moment but I still expect the Patriots to trade down with the chiefs or packers and acquire some more day two picks. So being the NFL, anything is possible and nothing lasts long. So we'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully Belichick doesn't throw a knuckle-ball out of nowhere and leave us with our heads scratching come week 1.

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Patriots Replace Brandon Bolden On Paper.

After the 2021 season the Patriots needed a receiving back. Both James White and Brandon Bolden were becoming free agents come March. And there was and is uncertainty about the health of James White, plus J.J.Taylor offers little to no help on third down as a blocker. So today the Patriots signed Ty Montgomery to a two year contract.

Back when he was drafted, NFL.com's Lance Zierlein compared Montgomery in 2015 to "Cordarrelle Patterson", a former Patriots player, who although filled in at running back, was a bust for them. The good thing from Zierlein's scouting report was he described Montgomery as a prototypical Patriots receiving back. The bad was he was barely a depth piece.

Bleacher Report's scouting report on Montgomery wasn't any better than what the NFL.com had listed. They start with, "A return man specialist with yards-after-catch potential, Ty Montgomery will make an immediate impact on special teams." And then they went on to say, "It's almost unfair to call Montgomery a receiver, as he isn't a natural catcher and had more drops than any player charted this year."

Over his career, Montgomery has averaged 4.6 yards on 258 carries with 61 first downs and 7 touchdowns. He also has 57 first downs on 139 catches. He also hasn't fumbled the football since 2018. And when he returns kickoffs (18), he averages 20.2 yards. Oh and in college, Montgomery averaged over 18 yards a punt on returns. 

People are pointing to the fact that in 2021, Montgomery had a down year. He was playing for a saints team that just had their hall of fame worthy quarterback retire in 2020 and had Jamieson Winston ad their quarterback.

I'm not saying that Montgomery is the answer be all in the Patriots offense but he makes it so the Patriots don't have to look at a running back until the UDFA period. Which is good for Hawaii's Calvin Turner who can do everything Montgomery can do but that's besides the point. Montgomery replaces the value lost by Brandon Bolden, at least on paper. And if there's anything untapped, the Patriots will get that out of him.

As a depth piece, this is a decent signing for a rebuild. Seeing as there was nobody supposedly on White's level in free agency according to Patriots media, this signing was a win because it replaces White's backup. Patriots fans should be happy that the running back room didn't lose it's talent level heading into the 2022 season.

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Is This The Last Chance For Dalton Keene?

In 2019 James Devlin would suffer an injury and call it quits after the season. That same year the NFL would gift the Patriots German league tight end and fullback Jacob Johnson, who would also get Injured. The Patriots would have to turn to linebacker Elandon Roberts to finish the season out playing the fullback position.

In 2020 the Patriots drafted H-back Dalton Keene. If you're unfamiliar with the position, it's four positions in one (half back, fullback, receiver, and tight end). Some thought he would get used like former Patriots move tight end Aaron Hernandez and some thought Belichick would go old school and use Keene like Keith Byars or Rod Bernstein. However, Keene did very little and had an unproductive 2020. And spent most of the season on the injured reserve. While Johnson would show his worth as a fullback. 

Heading in to 2021 it was thought that since Keene wasn't the second coming of Aaron Hernandez, that he would compete with Johnson for the fullback position and maybe get used as a receiving back. Instead, Johnson would have a solid year while Keene would spend the season on the Injured reserve. Flash foward to March 16, 2022 and Jacob Johnson signs with the Raiders. Leaving the Patriots Dalton Keene and maybe Jonnu Smith to compete for the role as fullback.

The Patriots spent a third round pick on Keene and had high expectations. However to this point he's been a bust. Johnson leaving at the moment maybe an opportunity for Keene to salvage his career when many fans would write him off. So I decided to look back at some of Keene's scouting reports and see what was said about him. As the only thing we know of him is he's injury prone. I found five websites to quote.

Matt Miller of Bleacher Report said, "Great depth addition; can play H-back, fullback, in-line, slot and special teams, and could probably play defense, too." But then Miller would also say, "Limited route-runner; Tech often used him as an H-back and did not ask him to do much downfield."

Marino of the draft network said, "Keene is highly competitive in everything he does and there are baseline skills present to forecast him to a meaningful role in sub packages and special teams in the NFL." While Crabbs said, "There's some irregular framing of blocks and he's too often overextended at the point of attack — an issue that needs to be solved for him to transition from H- back role to gaining reps as a more traditional in-line tight end."

Devon Clements of sports illustrated wrote, "a blocker, which means he just needs to polish his technique to improve in that category." And went on to say, "Keene isn't polished enough to be a starter right away. Couple that with the fact that the Patriots drafted Devin Asiasi 10 picks before Keene in the draft, and it would make sense if Keene was nothing more than a situational football player in 2020."

John Sarianides of the NE Football Journal wrote, "Keene is former quarterback and running back who bulked up and was moved to tight end. He has tight size at 6-4 253 but with a running back skill set. He was a bit of a reach as a third rounder but that is my opinion. The Patriots obviously rated him higher on their board."

Lastly, CBS Boston wrote, "The 6-foot-4, 253-pound Keene was given the nickname “Rambo” for his physicality. His overall numbers aren’t eye-popping, with 59 receptions for 748 yards and eight touchdowns in 27 games, but his strength and size make him an intriguing prospect. He’s also an extremely versatile player, with the ability to play tight end, fullback and H-back."

After reading what was written, Keene was a utility offensive player. He could play a bunch of positions but was raw from being stretched out. What ever team that was to draft him (in this case the Patriots), would need to develop him for the position they planned on using him for.  After spending two years on the injured reserve, it's a safe bet that Keene will be coming into the season as basically a 23 year old undeveloped rookie.

I would expect the Patriots to at least bring in at least a udfa rookie to compete. When looking at Vitale, Keene, Johnson, and even Jonnu Smith, Evan Lazar is right, the Patriots were "looking for a receiving threat at the fullback position." It makes for a great security blanket to have a blocking back with good receiving hands. Remember when the Patriots had Patrick Pass? So we appear to know what they want but can Keene take advantage?

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Hoyer Re-signs With The Patriots But What Is His Value?

The Patriots re-signed Brian Hoyer to a 2 year contract. Hoyer comes on as a backup but he's there to mentor and coach Mac Jones. Everyone knows this and that he can spend more time with Mac as a player than a coach. That kinda time is crucial, this year more than ever. In the past Belichick and McDaniels have praised Hoyer's ability to help younger quarterbacks.

Belichick said in 2021, "He (Hoyer) obviously knows the offense better than anyone, any other player or quarterback, so that’s a big help when executing the play. There’s the coaching version of it, and then as a player, there’s kind of the execution of it.

The little things that you remind yourself as a player that a coach sometimes doesn’t, it’s just different when you’re a player and executing the play and a coach trying to explain the play. And I think Brian adds a lot of good insight to that, and how other teams defensively do things because they’re all different.”

The Patriots at the moment do not have an offensive coordinator nor a quarterback coach. There are football minds on the staff but no one on the staff has been groomed to be the OC. Maybe Caley but I doubt he's ready. Hoyer while not calling the plays based on Belichick's own words, may have a hand in helping with the game plan. 

Consider how he helped the defense prepare for the Patriots last superbowl, different side of the ball but still. Not to mention, Hoyer also runs the scout team according to many sources. And Hoyer will definitely be able to help get other units ready. We all saw how good Harry looked in 2021 when Hoyer was on the field.

In 2021 Miami and New York, two division rivals both wanted Hoyer. Hoyer knows his leverage and knew the Patriots had to pay him if they wanted him to stay. That's why he's not a coach. Again everyone knows players get paid more than coaches.

And Hoyer got near $3 million in incentives but what are those incentives? We all know Hoyer's value as a defacto quarterback coach but with Belichick, Patricia, and Judge expected to call plays in 2022, I wonder if part of Hoyer's deal was to be prepped and groomed to take over as the offensive coordinator in 2024. It's just a speculation but it's not improbable.

Another thing is re-signing Hoyer means that the team can look for a new backup quarterback. Let's be honest, Stidham beat out Hoyer twice for the backup role. And after listening to McDaniels, It's reasonable to think that at the end of 2020 that Belichick was the only reason Stidham didn't replace Newton. As my buddy Ray Rauth said on March 14th, "Stidham fell out of favor."

Stidham appears to be a waste of a raw first round talent and 4th round draft pick. And there are rumored teams that have some interest in Stidham. The Patriots aren't going to get a 4th for the young quarterback but could fetch a 6th or 7th. With Hoyer having starting experience, it's doubtful the Patriots would give Stidham a start at this point of his career if the unthinkable happens to Mac.

If the Patriots can flip Stiddy for a pick this season, I expect Dustin Crum to be the guy taken. However, they do have former Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry under a future contract. And Bill supposedly likes the idea of how Taysom Hill gets used. The draft is still a while away and any Stidham movement is just speculation at this point but Hoyer gives the Patriots that kinda freedom. 

Sunday, March 13, 2022

Twenty Four Draft Profiles That Could Be A Patriot Come The Preseason.

I've been right in the past concerning the Patriots. And I admit I've been wrong, I don't know everything but I'm right enough to have confidence in my predictions and oversight. With that, I recently named twenty four prospects fits. They were broken down into seven positions with three each, one per level. And then I included the best available prospect I expected to be at that level. I gave a crack pot review with each player. Here are the twenty four scouting reports. There may be better guys a head of these prospects but I don't think they will be on the board and can the Patriots really afford to trade up? I don't think so, at least not without leaving major holes.

Early round prospects

Jaquan Brisker safety Penn State standing 6'1" and weighting 200 pounds. Age 22. College stats (2017-2021): 53 games, 9 Interception with 2 pick sixes and 14 defended passes since 2019. 271 tackles and recovered 1 fumble. 2 Kickoff returns for a measly 6 yard average and 17.6 yard average on 5 punt returns. 
Free Safety who can play multiple defensive back roles and has special teams value. Equally functional in both zone and man coverage. Needs to improve downfield coverage. And occasionally takes bad angles. Has the potential to be another shutdown DB. 

Intelligent player able to read and make adjustments. Reacts well as the play progresses. Another quarterback of the defense. Plays the ball well and has room for growth. 

Old school hard hitting safety who needs to settle down as ball carriers take advantage of his aggressive style of tackling. Should be a three down safety.

Does well in coming up and stopping the run. A true three down safety. Good as a blitzing defensive back. Capable of playing a WILL.

Not as developed as Hamilton, will need a year or two to become a star. His NFL comparisons are Michael Jenkins, Reshad Jones, and Harrison Smith. A mid to late first round projection who I think could slip into the early second.

Jahan Dotson receiver Penn State age 21, Standing 5'11" 178 pounds. He played in 42 college games (2018-2021) and compiled 183 catches out of 272 targets for 2746 yards with 25 TDs. He had 8 carries for a 2.25 yard average. 2 passes for 43 yards. He also had 25 punt returns with a 13.5 average and 1 return touchdown.
Dotson is a three sport athlete. Undersized for the X but can play any receiver positions and special teams. His size won't be an issue for the slot or Z. Should be an instant plug in and play for all 32 teams.

Good speed and agility. Can burn a guy deep or at the line. Drops shouldn't be a problem and he excells in getting yards after the catch. Not an ideal contested catch build but he still fights for the ball.

Understands how to read coverage and has no issues about putting his body in harms way to catch a pass. Doesn't have issues getting separation and knows when the quarterback needs help.

So what does he do wrong? He doesn't always play to ability. Blocking is inconsistent and needs to work on cleaning up his route running. And again if you want to play him in the X instead of the slot or Z, then he's undersized.

Dotson could be a late first rounder but most likely he'll go in the second or early third, however I don't see him making it to round three. Reports say his NFL comparisons are Diontae Johnson and Tyler Lockett. In the Patriots offense, I would have Dotson play the Z and move Bourne to the deep slot. If the passing catching depth chart doesn't change, Dotson would allow the Patriots to run more 4 wide empty backfield plays with Henry being the lone tight end in the field.

Roger McCreary outside corner Auburn 5'11" 190 pounds, age 22. Played in 43 college games (2018-2021). Had 6 interceptions with 1 pick six and 30 passes defended. Totalled 135 tackles with 1 sack and a forced fumble. Also recovered 2 fumbles.
Exellent man cover guy who sticks to his guy like glue and doesn't allow a lot of YAC. An intelligent zone defender who can use a little coaching at keeping his eyes on the quarterback. 

He has the ability to be a true defensive back who played some of his best football in the redzone. However, he may want to improve on his three come and slot receivers at the next level may beat him. He doesn't have elite speed and will need help with some of the faster receivers. He maybe able to add some speed by working with a speed coach as his stride is short compared to his length.

He's an aggressive ballhawk who does a good job at getting his hands near the ball but he needs to improve on jump balls. He's also a decent tackler in both the run and the pass. He also plays the run like a safety but he reportedly can get lazy when making tackles.

With concerns about his wingspan, McCreary is second round prospect with NFL comparisons Rock Ya-Sin, Davon House, and Patrick Robinson. He should be a starting number two outside corner in year one but will have rookie growing pains if thrown immediately into the number one role. The best outlook for the Patriots is to hope they can re-sign Jackson and bring in him.

Leo Chenal linebacker Wisconsin 6'3" 250 pounds age 21. He played in 29 games (2019-2021), recording 181 tackles and 12 sacks. 8 in his final year. He also recorded 1 interception and 3 passes defended. And he had 3 forced fumbles.
He's gonna knock ball carriers on their ass but his wingspan has been called into question, so he will need to take good paths to the ball carrier. 

He's got a good mind to read plays and to know where to be and where the ball is going. He uses his strength to get through opponents and to get to the ball. He plays sideline to sideline, so he's always in the play. And his blitzing ability is hard to stop.

There's some concern whether or not he can defend the pass. Teams may use him as an early down defender and test his abilities until they gain an understanding of his ability. His zone coverage ability is underrated the question is does have the ability to play man coverage at the next level. He's covered college tight ends but there's a difference between college level talent and pro level.

He's a quarterback of the defense who can be moved around. And with development he could be a good risk reward for a team that wants to take a chance. His NFL comparisons are Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga, Zaven Collins, Preston Brown, and I even saw Donta Hightower. He's projected to be a top 64 pick with the latest I saw him projected to fall was round four.

Jordan Davis defensive tackle Georgia, 6'6" 341 pounds, age 22. 41 games (2018-2021), 90 tackles with 11.5 for a loss and 7 sacks. He also had 1 pass defensed.
A multiple technique interior lineman. He's a pocket disrupted who requires two blockers and often is seen pushing the pocket backwards. He's intelligent and knows where the ball carrier is and seems to know what the blockers are going to do. And for a big guy he runs a 4.78 forty. That's as fast as some ends and linebackers.

He has room for development with hand techniques but he makes up for it with brute strength. There isn't a better run stopper in the draft. He has the ability to get back into plays. He needs to develop his pass rush but his ability just to push the pocket back could be enough to keep him on the field for all three downs.

Another guy who won't make it passed the 50th pick. His NFL comparisons are Derrick Brown, Ted Washington, John Henderson, and Vince Wolfork. If the Patriots drafted Davis, they could use Barmore like the hybrid tackle - end that he is. And between the two of them, the remaining front seven will have an open field day at the quarterback or ball carrier because those two would eat at least four blockers.

Trevor Penning tackle Northern Iowa, 6'7" 325 pounds, age 22. He's an offensive lineman so let me apologize a head of time of his report is shorter than other positions. 
A starting tackle with swing ability. He has also has started at left guard. Does a good job at staying on his feet and with putting defenders on the ground. Can get grabbed in pass protection. He can move well enough but there's room to be for improvement. 

He doesn’t get beat often at the edge and knows how to read or sense a defense. He has good power and adequate speed for the tackle position. His balance can occasionally be an issue but it's fixable with a quality offensive line coach. So are most of his other issues. I read one report that said he quits against lesser competition. Belichick will coach that out of him but that could be enough to see him fall into the second.

His NFL comparisons are Taylor Lewan, Riley Reiff, Matt Feiler, Jon Runyan Sr., and Michael Onwenu. Although he projects as a top 32 pick, some of the negatives mainly his 'effort' could see him fall into the later part of round two.

Wan'Dale Robinson third-down back (receiver convert) Kentucky, 5'8" 178 pounds age 21. 31 games (2019-2021), 141 attempts for a 4.90 yard average with 4 touchdowns and 25 first downs. 195 receptions out of 263 targets for 2,248 yards and 10 touchdowns, with 97 first downs. A 21.45 average on 24 kickoff returns and a 2.14 yard average on 7 punt returns. 

While he has the ability to be a deep slot receiver, Kentucky had to find ways to get the ball in his hands quite often. He reminds me of Danny Woodhead. When he entered the NFL, the Jets didn't know if they wanted him to play slot or running back. He came to New England found his home as a third down and pass catching back and the rest was history.

Robinson has a decent route tree but he's not a guy teams are going to want to run X receiver routes. He's better suited coming out of the backfield or lining up in the slot. He's capable of going deep but NFL defensive backs are going to catch him quickly if teams try that too often.

Regardless of where he lines up, he can get separation easily but with how he was used or scripted to get the ball, he didn't get as much YAC as he could've. Mainly because they were forcing him the ball and trying to get the ball down field. It's the kinda situation the Patriots will be in if they draft an X just to force the ball down field but that's another story.

He's got natural smarts and great awareness of what's happening on the field. He knows when the quarterback is in trouble and is capable of making circus catches or catches in traffic. He can block but teams would rather he didn't and had the ball in his hands.

He is a capable scatback and knows where and when to make cuts to find holes and pick up a few yards. His vision as a ball carrier makes him dangerous and his ability to get low allows him to disappear behind the line and pop out like a bullet from a sling shot. Add to that he has more special teams value than just a return man. I only wish they let him throw more, just so he could add a little more to his bag of tricks.

Robinson will get buried on a team's depth chart if drafted as a wideout but if he gets drafted as a back, he's gonna be a dangerous weapon and could become a major piece of an offense. He could very well be the guy who replaces James White but do the Patriots view that as a priority need?

Projected as a second round pick that could go in the early part of round three. His NFL comparisons are Ty Montgomery, 'a lesser' Deebo Samuel, and former Patriots running back Danny Woodhead. Robinson is referred to in many reports as a Swiss army knife more than he is receiver. And that says something.

Trey McBride tight end Colorado State 6'4" 246 pounds, age 23. 40 games (2018-2021). Caught 157 of 219 targets for 2011 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 109 first downs. 1 carry for 69 yards and a touchdown. 

He has lined up in every possible position on offensive outside of quarterback and lineman on offense and I could be wrong about lineman. Basically he's capable of replacing Jonnu Smith and Dalton Keene. Not to mention he plays special teams. However, Asiasi might not be safe either.

He has probably the most reliable hands of this tight end class and more reliable then some of the receivers in this class. He knows how to go and get the ball. He can also catch in space or traffic. Has a decent route tree and route running ability but wasn't utilized in the redzone as much as possible.

He understands coverage and knows how to get separation. And is another player who is aware enough to know when the play has broken down and to bail out the quarterback.

Just because he's undersized for an inline tight end doesn't mean he can't block. He's just as capable of being an inline blocker as he is a battering ram fullback. He can do everything N'keal Harry did, only better. And when he has the ball, he's got a secure grip on it. Defenders are not knocking it loose or stripping it from his arms.

He can pass block but he was so good of a weapon that they let his pass blocking slide. And that is why he projects as a U tight end or big body Y receiver. As a top 64 prospect with NFL comparisons Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, and Darren Waller, McBride isn't going to be a weapon teams are going to want to pass on. The last thing the NFL is gonna wanna do Is let a move tight end or big body receiver fall to the Patriots.

Mid Round Prospects

Bryan Cook  safety from Cincinnati standing 6'1" and weighting 203 pounds age unknown. Played in 46 college games (2017-2021). Had 7 interceptions with 15 passes defended and a pick six. 221 tackles with 1 sack and a forced fumble. 

An intelligent safety who has ideal tackling abilities. Capable of playing multiple defensive back roles and able to help on special teams. A former cornerback and has the ability to cover tight ends and faster receivers. Stiffness maybe the reason for the position switch.

Free Safety who has average instincts in coverage. Better in zone coverage than man. And writer's aren't happy with his ball production. He's better in intermediate and deep coverage then near the line. However he's still adequate in man and on shorter routes.

His run stopping ability is excellent entering the next level but there is still a little room for improvement. Needs a strong pro day or combine as his speed has been called into question. And adding a few extra pounds to his frame wouldn't hurt.

His NFL comparisons are Jaylinn Hawkins, Julian Blackmon, and  Sheldrick Redwine. No I am not making that last name up. And he's a development late day two / early day three projection who should be a starter before the end of his rookie deal.

Romeo Doubs Nevada stands 6'2" and weights a thin 201 pounds age 21. Played in 44 games (2018-2021) he made 225 catches out of 278 targets for 3322 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also returned 37 punts for a 12.5 yard average with a touchdown. He also had a kick return for 22 yards. 

An average route runner with room for improvement, who has burner speed. Has speed and quickness to get separation but struggles against faster corners. Has the acceleration to win at the line. He's a danger once he gets the ball. May be a deep slot at the next level, his underneath route tree needs work.

Comes down with contested catches. Huge wingspan. Past history of the dropsies and occasional bricks for hands. Needs to improve on his catching technique. Does a good job with ball location.

Is safe with the ball, goes down or runs out of bounds to avoid contact instead of putting thr ball at risk for extra yards. May put his safety before a catch.

Has the versatility to play the X, Y, and Z of split end, slot, and flanker roles. His natural abilities make him a risk of a home run regardless where he lines up. Once he gets the ball, he's gone. He brings some return experience and special teams value.

Needs development with his blocking and his footwork is a bit raw. Lines up primarily on the right. Needs to fill out his frame. His NFL comparisons are Quintez Cephus and Zay Jones. He projects as a day 2 prospect with a huge upside. He has the potential to be a number one or elite number two, if a receiving coach can develop him. Does that sound like any New England receivers coach of the past 20 years? That could be the sole reason the Patriots pass on him.

Tariq Woolen outside corner UTSA, 6'4" 205 pounds, age 22. 42 games (2018-2021), 2 interceptions with 9 passes defended. 63 tackles with 1.5 sacks. 24 receptions, 263 yards, 1 touchdown. Had an outstanding final season while basically being down to one hand.

Outside corner running a 4.26 forty with a 42 inch vertical. Has a decent frame but could stand to add some weight. Appears to be an ideal zone defender. Has good instincts and ball skills. And he's barely scratched his ability. He plays zone with the instincts of a receiver playing catch with a quarterback.

Needs to be taught how to play to his size to maximize his ability. Shows sloppy footwork and over aggressiveness in man coverage. He gets on them early and has the ability to shadow. He just needs to be taught how to play man. One he learns the position, he's going to be a ballhawk.

Needs to do a better job engaging blockers. He's appears to lack proper coaching in this area. Part of his problem is he's still raw only playing corner for two years after being a receiver his football life. Hitting doesn't come naturally. 

Projects as a 4th round developmental starter with comparisons to Kevin King, Isaiah Johnson, and Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Darrian Beavers Inside linebacker CIncinnati 6'4" 237 pounds age 22. He played in 62 college games (2017-2021). He had 231 tackles with 14.5 sacks. He forced 3 fumbles and recovered 2. He also had 3 interceptions with 3 passes defended. 

Beavers has experience at receiver and safety from high school. And Beavers is a three sport athlete. He can play inside or outside linebacker. He's an old school Jack hammer that's going to lay the boom when he comes up to tackle. He destroys blocks in order to get to the ball carrier. He excells against the run. And isn't too bad of a pass rusher either. 

He can play many styles and is a fit for a team that switches things up.  He can be a three down linebacker but he's more suited for zone than man coverage. Although he can disrupt routes. He can move side ways and change direction when needed without a cause for concern. He can even play the edge as he has played end before.

Beavers can make adjustments and keeps people informed of what's going on. He's another intelligent prospect that will add leadership to any linebacker room.

He's got a high motor. Lance Zierlein knocked Beavers for being "an old school linebacker." While John Sarianides compared him to Hightower calling him, "a big and rangy linebacker...". With how many teams referred to him as a Patriots linebacker and said his style was outdated he may fall deeper than projected and still become a Patriot.

A day two prospect with comparisons to Zavien Collins, K.J. Wright, and Donta Hightower. He has room for development but being his biggest knocks are what they are, if he makes it to New England, he may not need as much development as people are saying.

Phidarian Mathis defensive Tackle Alabama 6'4" 310 pounds, age 24. Played in 55 games (2018-2021). Had 129 tackles with 10.5 sacks. He had 3 forced fumbles and 3 recoveries. He also defended 5 passes. 

Can play tackle or end in either a 3-4 or 4-3. He's got quickness and strength which he uses to push the pocket back into the quarterback and ball carrier.

He has a good use of hand techniques and moves to beat defenders and find his way to the ball. Some noting his swim and club moves. Although he may need to spend some time getting limber. He has the ability to play sideline to sideline and get back into plays.

His football smarts are on the extreme end, and he will need to be part of a rotation as he plays full force. He is also another player who draws double teams. Not at the level of Jordan Davis but it's still enough to allow the Patriots linebackers and ends to get to the ball carrier easier. His run stopping abilities will draw the Patriots to him alone.

One of the things he needs to work on is patience. He can play a little to quick and his first step isn't consistent which leads to getting handled by guards. His change of direction speed has also been called into question. And it is said that all he has is a bull rush, he's gonna have to show at his pro day that he has more tricks in the bag.

He's another mid day two prospect that should not make it out of round three unless something goes wrong. His comparisons are Daquan Jones, Dalvin Tomlinson and Mohammed Wilkerson.

Abraham Lucas tackle Washington State 6'6" 315 pounds, age ??. Has been with Washington since 2017. Showed up at the combine running a 4.92 forty.

A decent blocker regardless if it's pass or run blocking. He's versatility enough to play in any scheme but may need some development depending on what he's asked to play, as he occasionally plays too high.

He needs to improve his flexibility and strength but he does a good job staying on his feet and does a adequate job bending his knees.. His ability to anchor is not as good as other big men. He also has the ability to pull.

He plays aggressive in the run but is very calm against the pass. Almost like a matador in bull fights, redirecting defenders with finesse. He's good with both power and zone schemes.

His hand and reach combined with his ability to move where he wants keeps his quarterback clean. He can play either side of the line and has good intelligence and awareness to read defenses and make adjustments. NFL.com thinks he could play some guard at the next level, while the draft network disagrees. Going to be interesting to see how team scouts see him.

Being projected to go by round 4 will give the Patriots time to make a decision on him. His comparisons are Kyle Murphy and Jah Reid.

Zonovan Knight utility back N.C. State 5'11" 209 pounds, age 20. Played in 36 games (2019-2021). He averaged 5.46 yards on 419 carries with 18 touchdowns. He also caught 48 of 64 targets for 336 yards with 16 first downs. He also fielded 30 kickoff with a 30.7 yard average. He also had 7 fumbles sprewd out over his 497 touches.

For 20 has a lot of use on his legs due to being an all purpose back in both college and high school. He's a good pass catcher and a zone runner. His pass blocking is adequate and will need improvement as he's primarily a receiving back on passing downs.

He has good vision and finds holes. The problem is he occasionally tries to fit in tight holes. He has a good cut and doesn't lose balance. He has good acceleration once he finds the hole and enough breakaway speed to be dangerous anytime he has the ball in space.

He was in the top 5 for missed tackles in 2020. He does well in screens and coming out of the backfield as a pass catcher. He is a decent route runner with a few tricks to get open. He brings special teams value both on the punt coverage team and as a kickoff return specialist.

A fourth round projection with comparisons Lamar Miller and Brandon Bolden, the contrasting talent comparisons is probably the reason he's projected to go where he is.

Matt Araiza Punter / Kicker / Leg San Diego State 6'2" 200 pounds, age 21. Before I get into his stats, I just want to point out that he runs a a 4.68 forty. That's faster than some linebackers and tight ends.

In 35 games he kicked 73.5 percent of his 68 field goals with career longs of 53. He was 3 of 10 kicking over 50. He kicked 84 punts 39 inside the twenty and 37 over 50 yards. He only had 15 touch backs, 7 go out of bounds, and he had 17 fair catches. He also averaged 64 yards a kickoff. And he's brought down 7 returners, 5 on his own.

He's a left footed kicker who has twice kicked 80 yard punts. Araiza is also supposed to be kicking near 60 yard field goals in practice. According to PFN, he's "Never had a kick or punt blocked."

It's also said that he has room to improve his accuracy in both field goal kicking and punting and that it's just "a matter of consistency in his approach."

Araiza is projected as a early day three prospect but some believe he could be off the board by the end of the third. He could be the highest Punter taken.

Late round prospects 

Jerreth Sterns Westen Kentucky stands 5'9" and weights 195 pounds. He started at Houston Baptist before transfering in 2020 to WKU. In his 4 years of college he put up a staggering 371 catches for 3907 yards and 35 touchdowns. He also had 28 carries for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also has special teams value returning 44 punts for a 5.6 yard average.

Sterns had a season not seen since the likes of Calvin Johnson. However unlike Megetron, Sterns is being labeled undersized because if his size. Sterns will not be an X receiver at the NFL level, yet his size is perfect for a slot or flanker as a pro.

Sterns has great hands, only dropping 3 passes this season. He's the next level security blanket. He's also an ideal route runner. He's fast but he doesn't have the speed one wants in a burner but he's got the quickness and agility one again wants from a slot or flanker in today's NFL and teams will have to worry about him on every blade of grass.

Sterns is explosive with the ball and knows how to get yards after the catch and he knows how to get separation. He just seems to know where to be. He's another small guy who fights for contested catches and has no issues going across the middle. He has that squirrely menatality.

His blocking isn't that great and he needs to develop some techniques better suited for his size in that department. Anyone looking for N'keal Harry type blocking production are going to be gravely disappointed.

A late day 3 draft projection. Reports compare him to Cole Beasley, slot receiver from Buffalo and Brandon Cooks from Houston. Some reports said he was a miss in scouting by NCAA teams and thus his college career suffered. Sterns is an "air raid" receiver but that shouldn't be a problem. With a good combine he could've seen himself being drafted in the third but after being snubbed, round five seems possible. Arizona or  New England are two teams that he seems like a good fit for.

Calvin Turner Jr receiving back Hawaii 5'11" 195 pounds, age 22. College stats (2017-2021) 580 carries for 3439 yards with a 5.92 yard average and 44 rushing touchdowns. 108 catches for 1452 yards, averaging 13.44 with 11 touchdowns. 6 punt returns  with a 7.6 yard average. 42 kickoff returns, avgeraging 22.64 yards with 1 touchdown. He completed 44.6% of 150 attempts for 1,176 yards with 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. 

Versatility: The first thing anyone needs to know is Turner started off as a Defensive in 2017 (No stats found). He switched to quarterback in 2018 and then finished out his career as a running back that could line up as a receiver. His elusiveness helped earn him the job of return specialist but special teams as a whole are part of his game.

Turner is more of a scatback than a power back but he can run between the tackles. Impeccable footwork with a good burst and able to keep his balance and stay upright. His vision is good and he's instinctive, always seeming to know where to go with the ball. He's more than fast enough to get around the edge but his ability to see what's in front of him and to change direction without losing speed will make him very valuable.

Turner is an asset on passing downs, he can pick up the blitz and pass block with the best of them but he's also a dangerous weapon. Turner has the ability to win at all three levels of the field. No blade of grass is safe. He's got sure hands and is capable of making circus catches. He uses his experience as both a quarterback and defensive back to help beat coverage and get separation.

The biggest thing against Turner is his production was limited due to having to change offenses going from Rolovich to Todd Graham. It didn't look like Graham always knew how to use Turner. If you're a Patriots fan, that's kinda like the complaints with McDaniels use of Newton and Jonnu Smith.

Every 10.5 touches on offense Turner scored. That number would've been higher if not for a regime change. Turner's decision to return to Hawaii gave him a chance for more exposure but the dysfunction of Todd Graham hindered his progress. If you don't know about the player accusations, I suggest you check it out.

Like all running backs, Turner could use to improve his route tree but it's good where it's at. The things he needs improvement on are all minor. So he should be an instant plug in to any committee.

Turner was robbed of a chance to show off in the Hawaii bowl but got to play in the East - West shrine bowl on February 3rd. Turner was snubbed by the NFL but he ran a 4.48 at his pro day with a 38.5 inch vertical and a 10.3 in broad jump.

Projected as a late round udfa with NFL Comparisons Trevon Austin and James White. For teams looking for that Danny Woodhead / James White receiving back, Turner is a guy to keep an eye on. He's not going to be the feature back in any NFL offense but his abilities make him a dangerous athlete if paired with the right coaching staff. 

Dustin Crum quarterback Kent State 6'1" 210 pounds, age 23. In 50 games (2017-2021) he started 31 of them. He completed 66.7 of 864 passes for 7,401 yards with 55 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. And was sacked 104 times or twice a game on average. He averaged 4.34 yards per carry on 477 carries with 24 touchdowns and 65 first downs. He does have a catch for 0 yards. He punted 3 times with a 20 yard average, with two landing in the 20. He also has 6 career fumbles to his name.

Crum came out of nowhere in 2019 and caught the attention of many. It was said he had a better deep ball accuracy than Joe Burrow. As he led Kent state to their first bowl victory. However, it's said Crum benefited from an offense that was "centered around a short and intermediate passing game." What NFL team from the AFC East does that sound like?

Although Crum started a few games before 2019, it wasn't until 2019 that Crum would become the starter, running Kent State's pro offense. Crum opted to take advantage of an extra year due to the pandemic and continued to be consistent with his passing. However, the same issues that scouts saw in 2020 appear to be what they saw in 2021.

Crum has average arm strength, comparable to Mac Jones and is more of a catcher than a center fielder's arm, with enough zip to get the ball into those tight windows. He throws the deep ball with touch and can hit guys over 50 yards deep. Excellent mechanics, teams won't have to waste a lot of time correcting. 

Impatient but accurate and intelligent. Kent's offense was a lot of flats, quick slants, curls, drags, crossing routes, comebacks and screens. Has good timing and anticipation, cerebral when not under pressure. Needs to finish follow through of throwing motion when under pressure.

Robert Simpson wrote about crum, "Shows pinpoint short accuracy when throwing in rhythm, placing the ball well in tight windows away from defenders."

Crum is a literal rocket scientist (seriously), and uses that intelligence well on the football field. Excellent presnap work but it's the after the snap that needs some development.

Although he doesn't make a lot of mistakes, he appears to hear footsteps and gets rid of the ball to either the first or second read, instead of going through the progression when he has time. This could be due to the line he played with at Kent State. More confidence in his line could see him finish his reads and get even more accurate.

Crum can sometimes stare down his target in the pocket tipping his hand, which can hurt the offense but at the same time he fools defenders when on the move allowing him to make plays with both his arm and feet.

Deceptive speed like Rodgers, he's capable of fooling defenses with RPOs and rollouts. Very wiry and can change direction without losing speed, should ace the three cone drill.

Even though it appears Crum hears footsteps, he's not afraid to take hits and will fight for extra yards. Trying to bully smaller defenders with his 6'1" frame. Crum could use to add 15 - 20 pounds, being only 210 pounds. Crum could be used the way the steelers used Kordell Stewart or the way the Saints use Taysom Hill. 

Crum served as the holder in 2018. He also punted for Kent on more than one occasion over his career. So he's not afraid to play out of position and can help the special teams if needed. Which will be great if he ends up a backup in 2022. Crum is what I call a true mobile pocket quarterback. 

As typically with Kent quarterbacks, he is expected to fall to the sixth or seventh round as Kent gets no respect. Scouts admitted with regret that he was overlooked by bigger schools and has been compared to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Easton Stick. He also had a good showing leading up to the shrine bowl.

One scout in early 2021 said "if he don't make the NFL, he'll start in the CFL." Crum is a low risk, high reward selection on day three but could be worth grabbing on day two, potentially making him a medium risk project. For a mobile quarterback, Crum should have no issues running the Patriots offense. 

Crum won't start over Mac but he's a good candidate to be a long term backup. The biggest knock against Crum is he doesn't like throwing high risk passes. He plays it safe and takes what the defense gives him. Today's amateur scouts and fans want a 60% plus chance of the ball being intercepted when a mobile quarterback throws. It's why they prefer guys like Cam Newton over safe guys like Tyrod Taylor. And why they won't like Crum, it's all about hitting the big play for them, like it's Madden 02. There's nothing wrong with taking the occasional risk but fans need to learn to appreciate ball security and dink and dunk mobile quarterbacks.

Kalon Barnes outside corner Baylor 5'11" 183 pounds, age 23. He played in 41 games (2018-2021). He had 3 interceptions with 14 passes defended. He had 68 tackles with a forced fumble.

Barnes's college career has basically been spent learning to play corner. And running a 4.23 forty, some pro team will continue the development. He'll start his career as a backup zone corner.

When it comes to man coverage Barnes needs to learn the fundamentals. He does show some man ability but he's extremely raw. However he does his best to stay with his assignment. Being a former receiver, Barnes is a much better zone defender and shows signs of being a potential ballhawk.

Barnes needs to learn to play the ball more as he's eager to make the tackle. However, when he focuses on thr ball, he does a good job at contesting it. Barnes also has to refine his tackling abilities as he shows he's willing to take on ball carriers. He can lineup in either side of the field.

Barnes track and receiver background could see him earn a spot on special teams. Especially if can take a returner role. His career will depend on how badly he wants to learn the position. Barnes is a late day three pick with comparisons to Fabian Washington and Isaiah Rodgers.

Aaron Hansford linebacker Texas A&M 6'2" 239 pounds, age 24. In 42 games (2017-2021) he had 157 tackles, with 7 sacks. He had 7 passes defended and 2 fumble recoveries. He also had 3 catches for 39 yards.

Does a good job in coverage as a zone defender. Knows what's going on in his quadrant but he needs to be a bigger presence before the ball is thrown. He's adequate in man to man covering ends and backs needs more understanding of man coverage assignments.

Decent blitzer with ability to play sideline to sideline. Shows the ability to blitz from multiple spots and levels. Shows ability to play the edge around the goal line

Does an decent job with tackling. Gets to the ball carrier quickly and is willing to full holes and take on blockers. Is aware enough to find his way into the backfield.

Has the versatility to fill in on offense as an extra tight end. And could find time on offense in the goal line area 

Needs development in every area he does positive. Is an intelligent defender but makes a lot of mental errors. He does appear to play at full speed. Should be a depth inside linebacker in year one. He has a few injuries thay have derailed his career and development. Hansford should see the field on passing downs but is still raw as he was a tight end early in his career.

He's a late day three prospect with comparisons to Damario Davis and Davion Taylor.

D.J. Davidson defensive tackle Arizona State 6'3" 327 pounds, age ??. Played in 37 games (2017-2021). Recorded 137 tackles with 5 sacks. Defended 6 passes and recovered 1 fumble.

A power defender with a huge wingspan that pushes the line backwards. An early down run defender that gets pads to level. He does a good job of shrinking the backfield on both the runners and the quarterback. He's capable and willing to chase down ball carriers when he's out of the play. He draws double teams and opens causes scheming problems. 

The good thing is he finished in the top 10 in 4 combine drills and got himself some attention. The bench, vertical, 3 cone, and 20 yard shuttle 

Needs to do a better job disengaging from blockers and keeping eyes up. His hand techniques also need improvement. Could use to develop some more muscle. He's got a lot of lower body power, he just doesn't consistently use it.

Davidson projects as another late day three candidate. He should be a backup nose tackle while he develops. 

Reed Blankenship safety Middle Tennessee 6'1" 205 pounds, age 22. Played in 54 games (2017-2021). Compiled 9 interceptions with a pick six. Defend 19 passes. Had 3 forced fumbles and recovered 4. Totalled 419 tackles with 3 sacks. Averaged 9.64 yards on 11 punt returns.

An intelligent free Safety who has a knack for sniffing out the run. Plays it well in the nickle. He does a good job tackling pass catchers. He's ideal for the Duron Harmon safety role. Does a good job when playing zone. He could be developed into a starter. And has the versatility to play any safety role.

He's plenty fast enough to chase down receivers and to take on running backs. He's also shown the ability to contest passes. Blankenship is also a leader who can point out things and make adjustments.

He can be guilty of being too aggressive and also of giving things away with his eyes. He also needs more discipline in man coverage.

He has value not only as a return man but as a coverage guy on kicks and punts. And should be a good depth piece in the Patriots nickle early.

He's a day three prospect who is compared to Daniel Sorenson and Antonio Brooks. He did a good job of bringing attention to himself and now he's just gotta wait and see.

Luke Tenuta swing tackle Virginia Tech 6'8" 319 pounds, age 22. 

Does a good job with hand techniques and setting the edge, especially in the pass but needs to play wider. Intelligent, not gonna make a lot of mental errors. 

Is athletic enough to be used to pull. Does decent in his run blocking. He plays the with good form but still plays too high. Does well at keeping his balance. He moves well enough for his position.

Needs to do a better job at protecting his frame. And needs to find a way to play lower to better anchor the line. Although Tenuta is a development prospect from the end of the draft, there are some who believe he has potential with a good line coach to develop into a starter. Everyone saw what the Patriots did with Onwenu, so it's possible. 

 Tenuta's comparison is Sam Young.

There they are. Twenty four draft profiles on some New England Patriots prospects. If between draft picks and UDFA's at least one of these guys aren't in camp come August, I'll be shocked. Most people I think believe Araiza will be a Patriots but I think Sterns out of every prospect listed, including Hawaii's Turner, will be the in Foxboro for the preseason. What do you think?

Quick update (March 21, 2022): With Bentley, Mack, McCourty, Trent Brown, the Patriots have moved some needs to day two mid rounds. At least two of my offensive line projections can play guard. Waiting for the draft and certified free agent period to end.