Translate

Friday, September 4, 2020

Not Buying The Argument Of Newton Not Having Help In Carolina.

You have an NFL quarterback who is known as an inaccurate and inconsistent passer but also as a playmaker. A quarterback who one NFL reporter said that "Accuracy, 7 on 7s and passing drills wasn't his game. His game is running around using his legs and his arm strength." Thus his pass catchers gotta do extra to make up for his flaws.

Look at the rushing stats without Newton.
In 2011 Williams and Stewart ran for almost 1600 yards and 12 touchdowns and the team rushed for a combined 1702.
In 2012 the team rushed for 1347 and 13 touchdowns 
In 2013 the team rushed for 1441 and 8 touchdowns.
In 2014 the Panthers rushed for 1497 and 5 touchdowns.
In 2015 the team rushed for 1646 yards and 9 touchdowns. (Newton ran for 10)
In 2016 the Panthers ran for 1455 yards and 11 touchdowns.
In 2017 another 1348 and 9 touchdowns.
In 2018 again 1648 and 13 touchdowns.
In 2019 without Cam Newton the Panthers ran for 1821 yards and 20 touchdowns.

The running game over the course of Newton's career in Carolina was constant and over the last two seasons where Newton was hurt, it actually showed improvement. The better Newton ran, the worse his backs ran, it averaged out.

Newton has a 59.6 career competition percentage, in 2019 Kyle Allen had a 62% competition percentage starting 14 games; 6% higher than Newton for the year.

Now let's compare Newton's completion percentage to the pass catching percentage and a look at guys with double digit receptions.

In 2011 Newton had a 60.0 completion percentage, his receivers had a 61.9% catch percentage with 4 pass catchers above 61% with double digit receptions.
In 2012 Newton went 57.7 completions, while his pass catchers caught 58.4 with 4 guys over 65%.
In 2013 Newton completed 61.7% while his pass catchers caught 62.4 with 3 over 65%.
In 2014 Newton completed 58.5%, his pass catchers caught 60.6% with 5 over 61% and 2 more over 58%.
In 2015 Newton completed 59.8 %, his pass catchers caught  60.6 with 6 guys catching above 62%.
In 2016 Newton completed 52.9%, his pass catchers caught 55.3% Newton had 3 guys over 62% and another 3 guys over 52%.
In 2017 Newton completed 59.1% of his passes. His pass catchers 59.6 with 3 guys above 60% and 2 more above 57%
In 2018 Newton completed 67.9%, his pass catchers caught 69.5% with 4 guys above 70% and 2 more above 60%.
In 2019 Newton completed 56.2%*, his pass catchers caught 63.7% with 3 guys above 63%.

On average Newton's pass catchers had 1-3 points higher catching percentage than Newton's completion percentage. Newton also averaged a minimum 3 pass catchers that had decent percentages in catch rates. With many still catching over 50%. 

With Newton not being an accurate quarterback, who relies on his pass catchers to make circus catches while he puts the ball in their area, the blame falls more on Newton than his pass catchers and offense as his team was pretty consistent statistically. Newton's accuracy or lack there of his why he failed and why his pass catchers had lower stats and why they had such a significant increase with Kyle Allen as the quarterback.

As Evan Lazar said, "Newton wasn't the best quarterback this preseason for the Patriots, he was the best playmaker."  Newton ranged from 46 to 68% competition percentage and I would not be surprised if he only completed 57% of his passes. 

Newton is also known for his turnovers. Newton would've had double digit interceptions this camp but the defense dropped them. Newton averages 12 Interceptions and 8 fumbles a season. 

If one looks at 2019, Meyers had a great camp with Stidham but looked like crap with Brady. Byrd, Ross, and Olszewski have all looked good in camp with three quarterbacks throwing to them. However, expect that they could look worse with the least accurate quarterback on the roster throwing them the ball. 

Remember Cam wins with his legs, not with his arm. The better the quarterback's arm, the better season the pass catcher has. So while Cam is running around looking for the homerun, expect a down year for Patriots' pass catchers. 

Cam should complete 60% for 4000 yards with 23 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, plus 8 fumbles if he doesn't get his ball security down. Close to what Brady had in 2019. The Patriots are better without Brady this year and I believe they would be better with Stidham. Also expect Newton to run for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns. 

No comments:

Post a Comment