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Tuesday, September 8, 2020

2020 NFL Preview: What’s Best-, Worst-Case Scenario For Cam Newton, Patriots?

Zack Cox of NESN wrote an article called "2020 NFL Preview: What’s Best-, Worst-Case Scenario For Cam Newton, Patriots?". In the Article, he does a good job of giving Cam Newton Credit for the best case scenario but his worst case scenario, he really doesn't talk about Newton's flaws.

In his best case Scenario, He talks about the team as a whole making significant improvements. Michel develops in the passing game. Harry's lack of development being on Brady. Wynn staying health, so on and so on.

Here's what Cox's best case for Newton was, "An uber-motivated Newton stays healthy and performs the way he did during the first half of 2018, when he looked like a potential MVP candidate. His rushing ability allows Josh McDaniels to introduce a whole host of new concepts (read options, designed QB keepers, etc.) into New England’s offense and creates additional space for running back Sony Michel, who enjoys a resurgent third season after an inefficient 2019."

Pretty optimistic take and very well all a real possibility. With that out look, one can see why fan's are so hyped about Newton. However, there are another possibilities just as likely. Which gives fans just as much reason to worry.

For his worst case, Cox says neither Edelman, Harry, or the tight ends are unproductive. That Wynn has his third season with injuries. The running game sucks, the defense cannot handle the departures, and Bill whiffed on the kicking game. Again, all very possible.

As for worst case with Newton, Cox wrote "Newton, who is coming off back-to-back season-ending injuries and has not taken a hit since last September, gets banged up early in the season, requiring at least one stint on injured reserve. Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer both start games in his stead, and neither is particularly effective."

Injury is one way to go but Injury might not be the worst scenario, at least for the Patriots concern Cam. Go with everything else Cox said but let's look at another scenario for Newton.

Maybe Cam gets a little sore or banged up from taking hits but like Brady in 2019, Cam starts and plays all 16 games. Stidham has his second season of getting reps with the first team in practice due to Newton getting hit. 

However, Cam Newton repeats his 2017 season performance. Cam throws for 3300 yards and 22 touchdowns. He adds on another 754 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Sounds good right?

INewton only completes 59% of his passes. Averaging 6.7 yards an attempt. Gets sacked 35 times, 8 more times than Brady did in 2019. Throws 16 interceptions and fumbles the ball 6 times. Keeping the Patriots out of games they should win.

With the worst case scenario that Cox described and with Newton's history, a 2017 repeat is possible. Especially if you believe some analysts and writes about how inaccurate Newton was in practice. This season is very possible. 

Several analysts only have the Patriots winning 4 - 7 games, even with Newton under center. Most figure a minimum 9 - 10 wins but those analysts other ones, are really focusing on the worst case. 

I think most Patriots fans expect the 2020 Patriots to win the division and get double digit wins. Some even think with Newton, that the Pats are superbowl contenders. However, like Cox pointed out, The team could just have everything go south. Cox and Myself both pointed out two possible worst case scenarios which could cause the Patriots to have a worst case scenario.

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