At quarterback currently the Patriots have Jarrett Stidham and Jake Dolegada under contract. Cam Newton and Brian Hoyer are both set to be free agents in march.
Stidham is still under his rookie contract, the Patriots have him for two seasons. Stidham got put in Bill's doghouse in 2020 and was redshirted. Watching his performance as a passer, his play was comparable to Cam Newton everytime he took the field.
Dolegada was signed to a future contract after spending the season on the practice squad, and the team believed he could be developed into something. Whether they saw a backup or future starting potential is uncertain.
Cam Newton ran the football like a tight end, slow but with power. However, the former MVP had mechanical issues in his tenth season and was equal to if not a worse passer than the Patriots 2019 fourth round draft pick Jarrett Stidham. There are reports going around that Cam's arm is shot and that his value has fallen even further than it did last offseason. The only benefit Cam Newton provides is he can run and he can mentor quarterbacks on how to run.
Brian Hoyer was signed to be a game manager. He was supposed to be the Patriots security blanket. Prior to Stidham's injury landing him in the doghouse, Hoyer had already found himself demoted to third string. The former film mastermind of superbowl 53 had one of the worst performances for a game manager week four versus the Chiefs. In fact Hoyer's debacle at halftime may have costed the Patriots the game, as it certainly costed them Points.
Outlook: While majority of Patriots fans want the Patriots to take Mac Jones, which I would not oppose; The Patriots should go in another direction in 2021. The Patriots should sign Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Andy Dalton. Three guys who should be able to run the Brady offense, to compete with Stidham for the starting spot and hold the spot for at least two years if they win it.
At Running Back: Currently the Patriots have Brandon Bolden, JJ Taylor, Sony Michel, and Damien Harris under contract, with James White and Rex Burkhead as free agents.
While Primarily a special teams back, Bolden showed in 2019 that he could be used like Rex Burkhead. Bolden average 4.4 true yards per carry and a catch rate of 81.8.
In comparison, James White in 2020 averaged 3.5 yards per carry and only had a 79% catch rate.
J.J. Taylor was an early spark for the Patriots. Taylor averaged 4.6 yards on 23 carries, evading 3 tackles. Taylor was only thrown to twice, catching one pass but has the ability to be a receiving back.
Rex Burkhead has been a utility back for the Patriots doing everything and stole J.J. Taylor's spark late in the season. Burkhead had a 4.0 average on 67 carries. He also had a catch rate of 75.8
Outlook: Michel and Harris are a one two punch and Taylor and Bolden can replace White and Burkhead at a much cheaper cost. The draft is coming and the Patriots can always find a day three or undrafted back. The Patriots should let both White and Burkhead walk because both backs should want between five to seven million dollars a piece.
Fullbacks: While the Patriots are listed as having two, Jakob Johnson and Danny Vitale.
Vitale was and is referred to as a super back. Vitale is like Dalton Keene, he is a H-Back tight end. He allows the Patriots to do a lot schematicly, just like Keene. He can catch, run, and block. Vitale had a catch rate of 58.3 in 2019.
Johnson did a fantastic job replacing James Devlin. Johnson was primarily used to open up holes for the running backs. In 2020, Johnson had a catch rate of 88.9%.
Outlook: It's unclear how the Patriots plan on using Vitale. If they plan on using him solely as a fullback, than expect a competition for the position. However, if the Patriots draft a tight end, Keene and Vitale might just push Johnson off the roster without a competition.
Receiver: Not including captain and special teamer Matthew Slater, the Patriots have a large group of pass catchers, and two free agents in Byrd and Moncrief are free agents. One of the things that hurt the Patriots receivers was that they each only got open a handful of times a game but their quarterback could never find them when open.
Julian Edelman hopefully will come back healthy from his Injuries that plagued him the last two seasons. Normally one of the best at separation, Edelman had a separation rate of 1.47 and a true catch rate of 75%. Edelman only played in six games but still caught 21 balls for 315 yards.
The Patriots also have Quincey Adeboyejo signed to a future contract. Was considered a project coming out of the 2017 draft, is a X/Z hybrid. Runs a 4.42 forty and a 6.73 three cone. The Patriots maybe hoping to develop him further. Has the speed the Patriots only had with Byrd.
N'Keal Harry like the other pass catchers was open only a handful of games, and can only be productive if the quarterback gets him the ball. Harry is a candidate to convert to a U-Tight End (move) but will need to add at least ten pounds. Gronk added 15 last offseason season, so Harry can do it. Although Harry had Cam throwing him the ball, he still managed to catch 33 passes for 309 yards and 2 touchdowns. The 6'4" pass catcher only saw 10 redzone targets in 2020, catching 6. Harry had a true catch rate of 86.8% and 71.4% on contested catches.
The Patriots signed Marqise Lee but he opted out. Lee is another X-Z hybrid. When healthy Lee is a weapon but that's the key word, when. Over his career, not including 2020, lee has missed 37 of 96 games. In 2017 Lee caught 56 of 96 passes for 702 yards and 3 touchdowns. Lee also has the ability to be a solid kickoff return specialist.
Jakobi Meyers is a hybrid Y-Z receiver. Meyers had a true catch rate of 90.8% and a target separation rate of 2.04. Meyers had 59 catches for 729 yards but no touchdowns.
Gunner Olszewski had 4 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown. Gunner had an 80% catch rate and seemed to have a better chemistry with Stidham than Newton. Gunner also was very successful in the return game, averaging 17.3 yards per punt return, with a touchdown. Also averaging 23.2 yards per kickoff. Gunner is a true slot receiver.
The Patriots signed Devin Smith to a futures contract. Smith was drafted in the second round by the New York Jets in 2015. Smith ran a 4.42 forty and a 6.83 three cone. Smith is a X/Y receiver hybrid and gunner who could use to add 10-15 pounds. Some scouting reports listed Smith as a developmental project coming out of Ohio State.
Another player signed to a future contract is rookie Kristian Wilkerson who ran a 4.46 forty and a 6.68 three cone. Wilkerson is a project but probably the Patriots only true X-receiver with slot quickness.
Isaiah Zuber appeared and then disappeared. Zuber is a Slot/Z receiver and special steamer. Zuber caught both catches thrown to him for 29 yards. Some analysts had Zuber listed as a third round developmental player before the draft.
Damiere Byrd is currently a free agent but was one of the Patriots better pass catchers in 2020. Byrd is Y/Z receiver who ran a 4.28 forty and a 6.6 three cone. Byrd had 47 catches for a true catch rate of 87. He also had a target separation rate of 1.77 which was good enough to put up 604 receiving yards and a touchdown.
X-Receiver and returner Donte Moncrief is also a free agent. Moncrief was drafted by the colts in the third round because he has the ability to line up in the X, Y, and Z spot. Moncrief runs a 4.4 forty even and a 7.02 three cone. Moncrief had two targets in 2020, catching one for 15 yards. He also temporarily took the kick returning job from Gunner and averaged over 23 yards on 7 returns.
Outlook: The Patriots have enough day one and day two talent on the roster, that with a full offseason, the Patriots should be better and need to develop what's in house. However, the Patriots Still need a true number one. Marvin Jones, Corey Davis, and Curtis Samuel are all names linked to the Patriots but are all expected to want over ten Million dollars a year. Belichick has never done well in the draft with receivers but the alternative is going to be over paying for a number one.
Tight End: The tight end spot was largely unproductive in 2020 but like the receivers, they got open a handful of times game. From inexperience, to being ignored, to having the ball thrown very poorly, the tight ends were doomed to fail.
Ryan Izzo did a decent job blocking and caught 13 of his 20 targets for a true catch rate of 92.2%. Izzo also caught 199 yards with a target separation rate of 1.7. Izzo's numbers would've been better with a more accurate passer with better vision and a quicker progression read time.
Devin Asiasi was targeted 7 times but only managed to catch 2 passes for 39 yards and a touchdown. Unlike Izzo, Asiasi was thrown passes that were 85% catchable. Asiasi was viewed as a project.
Dalton Keene was another player that when he was on the field during passing plays, he was ignored. Keene had a true catch rate of 75%, catching 3 passes for 16 yards. Keene had a target separation rate of 1.80. Fans were expecting Aaron Hernandez but they should've been expecting Rod Bernstein or Keith Byars.
Outlook: The Patriots have two H-Backs in Vitale and Keene, and two Inline tight ends in Asiasi and Izzo. What the Patriots are lacking is that receiver build tight end. There are a couple of U-Tight Ends like Kyle Pitts that would fit the role, they could also convert Harry to that role. If the Patriots can get a good U-Tight end that can draw coverage away from the receivers, it would help greatly. It doesn't have to be Pitts but it must be at least a tier two pass catcher.
Offensive line: the Patriots have Marcus Cannon returning but they have several guys heading to free agency that are going to be looking to get Paid. Isaiah Wynn and Onwenu had decent years, and the Patriots also have Shaq Mason. While David Andrews, Joe Thuney, Jermaine Eluemunor, and James Fernetz are all set to be free agents.
Outlook: There's almost no way the Patriots bring back both Thuney and Andrews. The offensive line was a mess without Andrews in 2019, so the Patriots must do what they can to resign him. The Patriots Onwenu that they can return to guard to replace Thuney and they have a starting offensive line.
Overall: the Offense is three pieces away providing the team can develop the talent it has under contract, which it must do. If the team can get a solid number one X-receiver and a U-tight end, plus at least a veteran game manager the offense will be good enough to go from 7 to 10 wins as long as Belichick addresses the needs on defense and special teams, including the key free agents.
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