Darnold Not Worth A Second.

The New York Jets are shopping former first round draft pick Sam Darnold for a second round pick. Darnold will be entering his fourth season and whatever team that makes the trade, will want to pick up his fifth year option.

In 2020, Darnold threw for 2208 yards with 9 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 364 attempts in 12 games. He had a completion percentage of 59.6 percent. In comparison Cam Newton threw for 2657 with 8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Completing 65.8 of 368 passes in 15 games. Darnold produced nowhere near the production Newton produced on the ground.

Here's the one thing I will say to the stats above before I continue. There is a difference between playing for Bill Belichick and Playing for Adam Gase. There is also a difference between the Patriots front office and culture and what's at Metlife in New Jersey.

Darnold's supporting cast was 29th with a protection rate of 74.1%. The Patriots fielded a supporting cast ranked 22nd with a protection rate of 82.1%. So Darnold would be walking into a better roster. 

Darnold was ranked 22nd on money throws, 6th in danger plays, and 4th in interceptable throws. He also featured a true completion percentage of 67 percent and was one of the worst under pressure with a 34.4%. He was ranked 6th with a clean pocket of 77.5% but his redzone completion percentage was only 37.8 percent. The Jets' pass catchers were 13th in target separation.

Cam Newton was ranked 35th on Money throws, 20th on danger plays , and 17th on interceptable passes. Newton had a true completion percentage of 71.2, with a 48.3 under pressure. Newton had a 74.3 with a clean pocket but in the redzone it was a 52.8 percent. The Patriots were ranked third in target separation. 

I purposely kept this out. Cam Newton was the 4th ranked in deep ball accuracy, Darnold was ranked the 33rd. 

While Darnold is more accurate or at least safer for the most part, and his weapons and pass protection was inferior to the Patriots, by analytics he was better than Newton. However, Newton puts up better rushing production, that cannot be over looked.

If they were to go after Darnold, a second round pick is too much. A late third to a fourth is closer to the production value Darnold has shown in his three seasons. 

While Darnold has three seasons of Starting experience, some of his numbers suggest a quarterback competition between him and Stidham could be worth while. Getting Darnold for a fourth and having a three way competition between Newton, Stidham, and Darnold would not surprise me. All three quarterbacks at that point would be expendable.

I am throwing Stidham in the mix because he was comparable to Newton, everytime we saw him. He has some support on the roster and Belichick did say Stidham had improved at one point during the season. My question is, while I believe he is a better fit than Newton, is Darnold an upgrade over Stidham after three years with the Jets?