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Saturday, June 6, 2020

Patriots: 3 early goals for Nkeal Harry in 2020.

Flipping through Clutch Points and there is an article by Evan Massey talking about three goals N'Keal Harry had to answer in 2020.  Now, If you don't know, Harry was the Patriots first round draft pick in 2019. With that Harry has a lot of pressure to perform.

Harry should be moved to a flanker role, he's too big to be a slot and too slow to play the X. Harry is 6'4" 225 lbs and is built more like a move tight end, than a Split end - X receiver. Harry ran a 4.53 at the Combine, so he's not the down field guy fans had hoped for. He does have a 38.5" verticle. Harry as a reported 6.88 3-cone which is not bad. However, the typical slot receiver is between 5'10"-6'. 

Now that I've covered who Harry is let's look at what goals Evan said Harry should focus on. First, Stay healthy. Second, meet statistics. Third, become the top receiver. 

Sports injury predictor is giving Harry a 26.2% chance of getting hurt in the preseason. Harry tweaked his hamstring and battled an ankle injury in the 2019 preseason. That battle saw Harry miss half of the 2019 season. Harry was called off the IR midway through the season, and in week 14 suffered a hip injury.

Currently, Harry is working with a footwork specialist to improve. Harry only played in seven games which put his development behind in the Patriots offense. If the Patriots are going to be productive, the Patriots are going to need Harry on the field for a full sixteen game season.

So Evan has some unrealistic expectations for Harry.  

Evan wrote "Racking up 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns would be exactly what the doctor ordered for the New England offense."

While it's true that Harry will see more passes from the current Patriots quarterbacks than if Tom Brady was on the team, That's just not how the Patriots operate. The Patriots run the "Air West Spread" system. It's a hybrid offense of three systems and it requires the Patriots to spread the ball around. 

Tom Brady doesn't work normally with new players. He also doesn't like to work with rookies and young players. It hurt the Patriots' pass catchers development in both 2018 and 2019. It's not his job to train or mentor, is basically what Brady said on the subject. Brady likes to force the ball to people he trusts, instead of taking chances on other guys. 

That's why Edelman had a big year. It's also one of two reasons that can be used, as for why the Patriots are going to be better without Brady. The other being, not having Brady audible out of run plays because he wants a throw first team.

Harry should be expected to catch approximately 40 passes for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns. That's giving Harry an average of 15 yards. This is a more realistic expectation.

With that said, although Edelman is the number one; the Patriots system really isn't built to have a number one. It's like their running back core, it's a by committee production. 

The Patriots should have eight or nine pass catchers every year catching 500 yards a season. When a team spreads the ball around that much, there is no true number one. On top of that, the Patriots offense is built around receiving backs, tight ends, and slot receivers. 

Harry currently is the teams X receiver and as I stated earlier, Harry is too big to have real success in the slot; although he can play it. Harry is more suited for a flanker role and to run the occasional seam route, like the Patriots did with Hogan and Gronk. Again, Harry will never be a true split end; he's too slow.

The Patriots showed they're willing to get creative with Harry. But even then, there's only so much they can do with the big bodied wideout. While Harry's not a draft bust yet, Harry will not be Terry Glenn or Randy Moss. People need to change their expectations on what Harry brings.

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