Over the first five games the Patriots host Miami, travel to seattle, return home for the Raiders and then travel to KC before hosting the Broncos. Over this span, I have the Patriots going 3-2 with losses to Seattle and KC. For these games, It would be wise for the Patriots to start Hoyer and let Stidham play in situations to build up confidence and continue development.
Stidham beat out Hoyer last year but it was close and it wasn't for the starting job. Belichick would've kept Hoyer if they were batting for the number one position. Even Ninkovich, who knows Belichick believes Hoyer will start.
This is what Ninkovich said, “If you have a veteran quarterback who has been in the system, understands what to expect, what an NFL season is like … you’re gonna want to go with a guy who has the veteran leadership (and) also has what it takes to be in that building. Look, when you’re a second-year player, you really don’t realize what a season’s like as a starter. You don’t understand what it’s going to take, and not having an offseason does not help. So, Brian Hoyer will be the starter Week 1.”
It makes perfect since and it doesn't mean Hoyer starts week 17, it just means you're continuing the development of Stidham, while giving your team the best chance to win early.
Stidham had a bad 2018 at Auburn and there were a few areas in need of development heading into the NFL. Stidham's going to make mistakes. Scarnecchia said that the other day, when he said the young quarterback was inexperienced but more athletic than Brady.
Patrick Morgan of Musket Fire touched on the subject of who should start and said this, "If they (New England) had torn everything down and traded away their best players (and some of their older players) for developmental projects and draft prospects, then maybe you could make the argument that Belichick was committed to “tanking” or building for the future."
What Morgan is getting at is everything is pointing to the fact that Belichick wants to win. There's no evidence to say the contrary.
After the Broncos, the Patriots have a bye week. If the Patriots want to start Hoyer week one and then sit him later in the year, this is the perfect time to do so. The two toughest games are in the books.
The Patriots host the 49ers after the bye. This would be a chance for Stidham to show Patriots Nation that HE, not Jimmy was meant to be the heir to the Patriots Kinddom.
The Patriots then travel to Buffalo and then New Jersey to face the Jets. Then they return home for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens before traveling to Houston.
Over these five games, I have stated the Patriots will go 1 and 4. While I think the Ravens game can go either way, I only have them beating the Jets. That puts the Patriots at 4 and 6. The Patriots still have a dominant defense and I think the games will be close.
The Patriots will host the Cardinals, travel to face the Chargers and Rams, then travel to Miami before hosting Buffalo and the Jets. Regardless of who's starting these last six, I have said and I still believe the Patriots will run the gauntlet and win all six. If Stidham is starting, I believe barring injuries; that he can pull that off.
Remember the NFL has added a third wild card team. Thus 10-6 could be good enough for Belichick to get into the Patriots.
There's a lot of variables this year in New England. It all depends on how well Stidham does competing for the starting job and if he suffers a sophomore slump. On how much Belichick wants to protect Stidham, where he thinks he's at in development and how well Hoyer plays.
I believe Stidham can lead the Patriots to a 10-6 record but I also think Hoyer, with this team is a good enough game manager to produce a superbowl birth. There is just too much uncertainty surrounding the Patriots at this moment in time.
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