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Saturday, October 23, 2021

The Offense Is Setting The Defense Up To Fail.

The Patriots offense is not what it was expected to be. I didn't expect a high powered offense but I didn't expect a bottom third either. The Patriots are currently ranked 24th in total offense, 26th in points and 19th in time of possession. The "bend don't break" defense is ranked 10th in yards allowed and 9th in points allowed. According to lineups, the Patriots special teams are ranked tenth in the league.

Now the Patriots defense at times doesn't appear to be hustling all the time and when they need a key stop, they cannot always deliver. However, look at their games against Tampa and Dallas. They held the Buccaneers to 19 points and left the offense a chance to put the game away. They held the cowboys to 20 points for 57 minutes and 33 seconds, and weren't on the field when the cowboys scored to take the lead in the 4th with under 3 minutes to go, the Patriots offense was. However that isn't stopping the defense from taking the blame ot accountability.

Although the defense is a top ten unit Adrian Phillips said “We don’t like where we’re at just because we haven’t been finishing. Everybody that plays defense, and this is probably the same for the teams around the league, they like when the pressure is on them. We like when the pressure is on us and we haven’t been holding up to that, but we’ve been getting better each and every week. … Our main thing is getting better each and every week and making sure when we get to those situations and points in the game, everybody is clicking and everybody is moving on the same frequency and we can come out with the win.”

Against the Cowboys, the Patriots defense was on the field for 82 plays not including penalties. The Cowboys had the ball for over 39 minutes or for two thirds the game because the Patriots offense was 3 of 9 on third downs and turned the ball to the cowboys offense once (not counting the pick six). It also didn't help that on 4th and 3 versus the cowboys in OT, Bill Belichick punted and sent the defense back out to try and stop the cowboys from attempting to get into field goal range instead of going for it.

While the defense is taking blame for the team's record when they are largely not to blame, at least Kendrick Bourne is keeping it real. Bourne addressed some of the offense's problems.

Bourne said, "We have little mistakes here and there. We could have done a lot of things better after watching the tape. Just can’t have little mistakes; can’t have a guy beating us off the edge; can’t have me getting jammed up or somebody missing an assignment. Whatever it may be we just can’t do that at crucial times.”

The offense is not executing and between Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Mac Jones, the Patriots playcalling has been kinda bland and like normal, in need of perfection to be successful. The Patriots offense is truly a machine and as long as one player messes up, the offense is likely falter. The offense has 8 touchdowns on 18 redzone trips, and have converted on 32 of 76 third down attempts.

Let me put those numbers a little different. 10 failed redzone trips and 44 failed third down attempts. That's just under 2 failed Rredzone trips a game and just over 7 failed third downs a game. 10 to 12 drives is about average for an NFL offense a game. And they can be expected to be successful moving the ball on 30% to 42% of their drives depending on number possessions.

It's nice that defense is admitting they need to play better but if the offense was playing better the defense wouldn't be put in a position to make the little mistakes they're making. They wouldn't be required to make multiple must have stops late in the games. Right now where the offense is, It's a game managing offense but it's not efficient enough. What we've seen from this offense, justifies Bill Belichick's cautiousness or conservative approach this season. Even with all the additions, the unit is not playing good enough to be trusted.

I said the team was better than their record, I also have said that the offense's current identity is a .500 offense and I meant both statements. The defense is a product of the offense and maybe the special teams could give the offense better field position but the offense is currently the weak link and until it improves this team will struggle.

And us fans will be pissing and moaning, while celebrating moral victories just like teams that raised banners for losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship games. Moral victories are nice for playoff teams but not for teams during the first third of the season. I gave the Patriots a floor of 5 and a ceiling of 10 wins on September 3rd, with the expectations of 7.5 to 8 wins. And I still am not ruling the floor out yet because the offense is just not playing good enough.

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