The Patriots have to play Justin Herbert again. Due to my orginal scouting report on Herbert being blinded with my desire for the Patriots to draft Jalen Hurts, I have decided to go back over his scouting reports and to give him a proper one. What I saw from reports was a very inconsistent quarterback with potential but also a lot of risk. The chargers appeared to have won with this pick but they're about to face Bill Belichick. Who maybe can find pull out some of those red flags.
Justin Herbert senior Oregon
Height: 6’6” Weight: 236 pounds Hands: 10" Arms: 32 7/8” Wingspan: 78 7/8
Combine results
Broad jump: 123.0 inches Vertical jump: 35.5 inches 40 Yd. Dash: 4.68 seconds 20 Yd Dash: 4.46 seconds 3 Cone Drill: 7.06 seconds
Herbert reads as two quarterbacks and such I am writing this as his reports read. Knowing that he will be facing Bill Belichick, can he keep his jackel and hyde at bay. The upper portion tells his pros and the bottom was his concerns. Typically the player is someplace in between, although Herbert doesn't look like it. Gotta wonder though, how many of the red flags did the Patriots see.
Arm Accuracy - Can drop the ball in a bucket on deep throws. Very accurate on short and intermediate throws. Can threads tight windows with touch. Accurate throwing on the run. Can put the ball anywhere on the field. Accurate throwing to the middle of the field.
Inaccurate on touch throws to the outside. Struggles throwing consistently with touch. Needs to do a better job of leading receivers. Tendency to flat-out miss for no reason. Likes to throw high. Accuracy breaks down throughout the progression. Deep ball accuracy dips.
Short to intermediate throws could be placed better. Poor accuracy on screens.
Decision Making - Good pre-snap reads, spotting the favorable matchup. Keeps the safety at bay. Scripted big plays executed efficiently. Few interceptions over his career. Willing to test deep coverage. Doesn't force throws. Takes what the defense gives him.
Overly cautious throwing into the first two levels. Scared to throw into high/low zones. Doesn't trust his eyes. Makes one bad throw a game. Occasional faulty execution risks ball security. Gets in trouble for attacking leverage and spacing. Makes enough of ill-advised throws. Willingness to throw the ball up for grabs and force passes to covered receivers.
Progressions - Ability to make all reads, goes through reads quick and efficiently. Reads the defense and finds the open receiver. Stays calm and isn't phased when things aren't opening.
One read and run quarterback who doesn’t keep his eyes up to extend plays. Appears his coaches were trying to break him of this. Locks on to the first read, telegraphing throws has been a constant bad habit. Too slow progressing to his second and third reads.
Anticipation - Protects WRs from hits. Allows his receivers elevate and attack man coverage. Excels in quick game. Finds rhythm, throwing with anticipation and timing, including deep throws trusting the pass catchers to be there.
Is a must see it passer. Has a late release, holds the ball too long. Doesn't recognize blitz presnap and misses throws. Accuracy issues due to lack of anticipation on timing throws. Overly cautious and misses throws expected of early round quarterbacks.
Arm Strength - Can beat deep coverage and hit down field windows. Can hit anywhere due to excellent zip and velocity. Reportedly best deep ball in class. Can push the ball 50 yards with ease. Uses power to make up for late decisions. Has a tight spiral uses extra zip on the ball to make sure it gets there before defenders can.
Flat throws put the ball at risk. Deep throws need more air under the ball. Doesn't trust his arm when he has a cannon.
Pocket Awareness - Moves fluidly around and out of the pocket to avoid pressure, was sacked only 5% of attempts in 2019. Ability to escape danger and deliver the football with accuracy on the move. Stays calm under pressure. Listens to internal clock to avoid danger in the pocket, knowing when to leave. Keeps his eyes down the field when under pressure and while escaping.
Willing to stand in the pocket but is occasionally oblivious to the rush. Gets trapped frequently. Becomes statuesque but that may have been from coaching out his run first instincts. Big schools that applied pressure got to him mentally. Held the ball occasionally too long or was too quick to flee the pocket. Occasionally panicked after injuries started piling up. Steps up into pressure , too many QB hurries/sacks that are his fault entirely too often. Finding for gaps and gouging defenses isn't overly natural for someone with mobility.
Mechanics - Flawless mechanics, keeps ball tucked. Stays well-balanced. Able to work traffic with throwing motions. Side arm release helps him adjust to pressure. Won't need much improvement if any at the next level.
Dicey under pressure. Mechanics start to deteriorate under pressure, leading to turnovers. 26 fumbles in 3 seasons. Lower body mechanics causes passes regularly to sail balls downfield. Side arm releases the ball quickly causing short throws to be spike down. Frequently locks the lower half and doesn't drive the football
Footwork - Showed improvement in 2019 in his drop and his base. Fluid stride and throw rolling in either direction.
Inaccurate throws due to tendency of improper setting of feet. Breaks down under pressure. Occasionally sits on his back foot and forcing him to miss high.
Mobility - Zone read runner who's dangerous out of the pocket. NFL defenses will have to respect the threat of his legs, will draw spies. Can and will extend plays with his legs when plays break down.
Run first quarterback under pressure with ball security issues. Not consistent throwing on the move. Teams may want to force him to throw on the run. Doesn't have the best instincts or vision for a runner.
Misc - Prototype player, arm strength, size, and mobility. Great play action ability. Played well with lack luster supporting cast compared to other prospects. Three sport athlete. Learned several different offenses in college. Four year starter, with Intelligence and leadership are undeniable. High football IQ.
Disappointing end to college career, became a scrambling check down charlie. Not a field general. Internal clock broken from injury. Suffered a broken femur (2014) and broken collarbone (2017). Too many major issues led to frail body. Will need to bulk up.
Comparisions - The six NFL comparisons give a floor and a ceiling with a reasonable expectation level: Mitchell Trubisky, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, John Elway.
Herbert has played well since getting the job but can he continue to do so. He looked like a starter in year one and hasn't slowed down much but is he showing improvement or has he reached his ceiling? I think he needs the organization to put better talent around him and that talent to elevate him. I am not expecting to see anything more from Herbert than we've already seen.
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