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Friday, December 24, 2021

A Players Stats Can Be Inflated And Deflated At The Same Time, Here's One Now.

Recently I defended Derrick Henry. Henry hasn't played since October but he's still a top five back. The arguement is that he inflated stats but only has just above a four yards per carry average. I argued that his average has been deflated by the Titans due to how much they relied on him. This doesn't just happen in Tennessee, this is a league wide thing.

Recently I wrote that Cam Newton should not retire. And there's a lot of talk about how bad Newton's stats are. Now some of the people defending Cam are pointing to his stats as a passer in New England as to why Cam should not retire. They shouldn't.

New England Throws a lot of Short to intermediate passes and had pass catchers who although they didn't have great statistical years, were above average in target separation and had some place around 85% true catch rate as a team. That combined inflated Newton's stats but it deflated his reputation as a passer because teams could see how poor his accuracy was throwing those passes. He was throwing to bubbles. A zone defense's dream, and that's not good.

Unlike his fans who wear beer goggles that make Cam the most accurate passer in the league, the nfl saw Cam for who he was. And he sat unsigned for most of the season. And since he's returned he's had some of the worst stats of his professional career. 

Every start, every game Newton starts deflates his reputation as a passer. However, Like when in New England, every game Newton plays in this season inflates his ability as a rusher because he's best when running around.

Newton in 15 games in 2020 had 12 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown. In 2021 over the course of 5 games, Cam Newton is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, 36.6 rushing yards per game which would net over 600 a season, and he has 5 touchdowns. That's pretty good, if only his arm was as good as his legs.

Newton has shown he can be a weapon for a team but he's not worth starters money and should not be a starter. That doesn't mean necessarily that Cam should retire. Cam should only retire if he's not willing to change how he's used or not willing to take less salary.

The term platoon quarterback came up last season and I do think Newton is a quarterback for that. The Rams, Cowboys, Washington Football Team, Steelers in '74, the steelers in '96. How the Ravens use of RGIII and the Saints use of Hill are the closest thing we've seen to that in 20 years by NFL teams.

I can't see Newton being used anything more than an H-back or half back if a team wanted him to play out of position. However having Newton come in occasionally on first and second downs, third and short, any time a team is inside the ten of the Redzone, or when a team wants to just run bully ball / time control offense could work. It's about using him to the best of his abilities in a different role or scheme. Similar to when Mike Tomczak was the starter and Kordell was the Redzone quarterback for the Steelers.

Teams have rotated quarterbacks every other play in the past, so it's possible to bring Cam in and out multiple times in one drive. This is again all if a team is willing to use Cam in that manner. And if Cam is willing to let his body get banged up. I'm not saying that Cam would never throw because that's part of him as a threat but it would be limited because his accuracy is now a weakness.

Any how, Cam's stats are a double edge sword to his career as the Panthers are inflating his stats by letting him run the ball 41 times in five games but they're also deflating because he's been the starting passer for 4 of the last 5 games and he's not a good enough passer for that role. They should've used him like his return game and kept P.J. Walker as the starter but that's just a thought.

It's all about knowing how to use your players to the best of their abilities while at the same time doing so in a way that helps your team and with Newton starting, I don't think that's the case. I was a Houston Roughnecks fan, yes I do think P.J. Walker is a better passer than Newton but that's another story that I'm not going to inflate at the moment.

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