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Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Did Lightning Strike Twice

Did the Patriots strike lightning twice with the 133rd pick of the 2019 NFL draft? Stidham went in the fourth round but if he had not returned for the 2018 college season, would he of been a first round quarterback? Stidham also got the advantage of not only learning from Tom Brady but getting to practice with the first string offense. But going back to 2018, what did the analysts have to say?

“I think Stidham, when he was at Baylor and then Auburn, it showed that he could — at one point, I thought he could be a first- or second-round pick, so he’s got talent,” Kiper said. “I don’t think he gets out of the third round. It wouldn’t shock me if he went mid-to-late second, so he’s going to be up there.”

CBS Sports had Stidham being the sixth overall pick of 2018. Sixth, that's huge.  https://www.theplainsman.com/article/2018/05/stidham-projected-as-early-draft-pick-in-early-mock-draft

"In 2017, Stidham looked like a lock to be a first-round quarterback."

"As we’ve reached Draft Day, it’s time to take a look at maybe the best possibility for Auburn to get a first-round pick. Now, he’s not projected there, but somebody could decide they need a quarterback, and the guy with all the arm talent in the world may just fall into someone’s lap." Brian Spurlock https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2019/4/25/18515799/jarrett-stidham-draft-profile

“He went from being in that first-round discussion — and all that stuff is so early — but he had that potential. And he still has that potential,” Russell Brown, a national scout for cover1.net
https://heavy.com/sports/2019/01/jarrett-stidham-nfl-draft-projection-stock-update-auburn/

"I stamped Stidham as a potential first-round pick entering the season, but the strong-armed passer suffered through an error-prone 2018 campaign." Tony Pauline
https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/pauline-noah-fant-makes-his-case-to-be-the-first-tight-end-drafted

In 2017 Stidham completed 66.5% of his 370 passes. He threw for 3158 yards averaging 8.8 yards per completion. He threw for 18 touchdowns and 6 Interceptions with a 151 rating. Stidham looked like a star. 

So what happened in 2018 that made Jarrett Stidham appear to regress? The Answer is Auburn decided to run an offense set more for the likes of Lamar Jackson or Kyle Murray. While Stidham has some mobility, he is not Doug Flutie. Stidham did what was asked of him and got the advantage of learning a new style offense.

In 2018 he completed 60.7 of his 369 passes. He threw for 2794 yards but only 7.6 per reception. Throwing for another 18 Touchdowns with 5 interceptions and a rating of 137.7, a slight decline from 2017. Stidham had 72 runs for 1 yard, which is bad because he had averaged 1.5 yards per carry and 4 touchdowns the previous year.

When asked about Stidham's 2018 regression, a scout for a NFC team said this: "That was a really dysfunctional offense this year. The offensive line was bad, the receivers couldn't get open and the coaching was a big problem, I thought. He didn't play well, but he didn't get much help either." https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jarrett-stidham?id=32195354-4912-9837-7193-9c8d8376b821

As members of Patriots Nation, we know the benefits Stidham had of sitting behind and studying Tom Brady. We know the benefits he had of practicing with the first string. We also know he developed chemistry with Meyers. What we don't know is did he develop chemistry with the first string. We don't know if his 2018 college season was his fault, and we don't know if a first round quarterback was selected with the 133rd pick of the 2019 NFL draft. Tom Brady is gone, are we sure we want to write off Stidham as the heir to the throne?

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