Could The Patriots Make A Surprise Trade?

On Tuesday Heavy.com released an article about trading Cam Newton. They listed two possibilities to trade with. My first reaction was no chance in hell. Yesterday I wrote an article saying the Patriots would stick with Newton until they were eliminated from playoff contention. 

At the moment, four losses should eliminate the Patriots. I foresee the Patriots going two and three over the next five games. The defense can carry them on a ten game win streak but the passing game isn't good enough. Don't bring up the Rams, they're giving up 360 yards passing to everyone. 

The more I thought about it, the more I thought maybe heavy.com is on to something. So I looked at what the two teams that were mentioned had to offer.

The Bears are paying Nick Foles a boat load of money and all they really have is Allen Robinson to part with. The Patriots are trying to roll money into next season and Robinson is going to be too rich for the Patriots' blood.

The other place heavy.com suggested trading Newton to was Dallas. Both of the Cowboys quarterbacks are out and Dallas is still in the playoff hunt. However, unlike the Bears who have a starter, the Cowboys are down to a third string quarterback. 

The Patriots could fish for a draft pick for Newton, in which the team could use the picks. However, even with a loss to the Bills the Sunday the Patriots are still in the playoff and trading Newton for a draft pick doesn't make sense if they want to still compete this year.

The Patriots need a pass catcher and not another third or fourth stringer. So that rules out Cedrick Wilson. I don't see Dallas parting ways with a center either. But there is 1 player the Patriots could target. 

Michael Gallup seems like a good fit. He's a former 2018 3rd round draft pick under contract until 2021.Gallup's contact fits Belichick's style and his contract for the year was only little under one million dollars.

Gallup stands 6'1" and weights 190 pounds. He's a smaller X receiver who ran 4.51 with a 7.09 three cone. He ran a 4.45 at his forty at his pro day, so he has potential as an X unlike Harry. 

The Patriots are loaded with Y and Z receivers, they don't have a real X receiver. For the season, Gallup has 19 catches for 371 yards and a touchdown. 

Belichick wants to stick with Newton but when he's passing at the same level as an inexperienced Jarrett Stidham, shipping Newton off after the Bills game, could make sense. Stidham could gain experience and develop, while the Patriots would gain a needed pass catcher and stay competitive this year. 

It's a only a speculation but trading Newton to Dallas might be more realistic than orginally thought. The downside about waiting until after the Bills game is Newton can continue to implode and Dalton could be cleared. There's only a few days left, with the trade dead line fast approaching. 

Why the Patriots are sticking with Cam Newton

The Patriots pulled Cam Newton who had thrown 3 interceptions versus the 49ers but that wasn't the only reason. Newton was failing to make reads and could not convert on third down among other things.

There's a lot of blame going to the Patriots pass catchers this season but just like sunday, there have been pass catchers open and Newton has not see them or is ignoring them. 

While Stidham's play wasn't any better than Newton's in both Sunday's game versus the 49ers or the week four game versus the Chiefs, it wasn't any worse than what we saw from Newton in the first half versus Vegas or the three quarters Newton played versus the 49ers.

With all the why would the Patriots not make a switch and start Stidham? If Newton is playing at Stidham's level, why not cut Cam? The answer is the same reason why Brian Hoyer got the start versus Kansas City.

The Patriots are still trying to win and Newton has the experience. The thought is that experience gives the Patriots the best chance to win, ability to play the position is tossed out. A quarterback's main job is to move the chains with his arm, otherwise Sony would be the quarterback.

While Stidham's not the rusher that Newton is, he's a better passer. The Patriots have tried to bring in pass catchers but all they have are 3rd and 4th stringers, with exception to Edelman. 

The Patriots are counting on the threat of Newton running to open up pass catchers. In theory it's a good strategy but as we have seen from Newton's last 4 starts, he's left pass catchers open; completely oblivious to them or he's ignoring them. 

Yes, I am aware one of those starts he threw for yards but how many yards did he leave on the field?

On top of that, Newton's last three starts have shown poor throwing mechanics. Newton is playing like a rookie fresh out of college. The plays are being called, contrarily to belief; pass catchers are getting open and he's just not executing.

The Patriots are hoping that he can turn things around and be just good enough. They're expecting Cam Newton to be intelligent enough to game manage. 

As long as the Patriots have hope at the playoffs, Cam should start; unless Stidham shows significant progress in his development to leapfrog Newton.

When and if the Patriots fall out of playoff contention, that's when they should hand the ball to Stidham to gain experience. There is a magic number that I'll get to. 

With exception to the Denver game, the Patriots are doing exactly as expected. My projections for the Patriots are now 9-7 with the floor still sitting at 7-9. I believe there is a blue print to stop Cam and teams will exploit it going forward. Contain Cam and have the defense adjustment take place after the snap. 

I have the Patriots going 2-3 over the next 5 games. However, four more losses over the rest of the season, should be the magic number for a quarterback change, not until then. 

Newton has always been an inconsistent quarterback and it's why teams strayed from him. 2014, 2016, and 2017, Newton was a different quarterback than in 2015 and 2018.

The Cam bandwagoners only saw those two good years, while the rest of us expected to see the Cam we saw in his last three starts show at some point this season. Now, I believe Stidham is just as good a passer as the bottom 8 starters, that includes Newton but Stidham still needs development and with the playoffs still in reach, let Newton take that pressure.

Newton has potential even though he's inconsistent, it's why fans still have hope but should be prepared for the worst. And again, that's why Bill will stick with Newton for the foreseeable future.

It was Seattle's Defense, not Newton's arm

The Seattle Seahawks would host the New England Patriots on Sunday September 20th. Seattle was coming off a game where Matt Ryan completed 37 of 54 passes for 450 yards, with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

The Seahawks would make several mistakes against the Patriots, from throwing a pick six to Devin McCourty on their third play of the game, to dropping a pick six on a bad pass from Newton. Seattle would allow the game to be closer than it actually was and almost gave the Patriots the win on the final snap of the game.

Seattle would allow Cam Newton to throw for 397 yards on 30 completions. Newton would throw for 1 touchdown and 1 Interception. Newton would also rush in 2 more touchdowns from the goal line. Although they lost, the Patriots still put up 30 on the Seahawks. 

The Seattle Seahawks have given up 368 yards passing and 28 points a game. They have the worst passing defense in the league. Even Tim Tebow could have a 300 yard game against them. 

Excluding the Seattle game, Cam Newton has thrown 155, 162, 157, and 98 yards. Getting pulled in the third quarter of the week six matchup against the 49ers. He was on pace to throw for 131 yards. 

For the season Cam Newton has 969 yards on 88 completions. Newton has thrown 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Newton has been sacked 10 times and has rushed for 5 touchdowns. He also has rushed for 244 yards. 

Taking into account that the Seattle game was inflated and adjusting, Cam Newton is averaging 193.8 yards passing per game. His career average prior to coming to New England was passing for 226 yards, 1.33 Interceptions, and 1.37 touchdowns a game. 

As a passer Cam Newton in below his career game average on passing yards and touchdowns. This is partly due to good coverage on third and fourth string pass catchers and also Newton not throwing the ball to open pass catchers. 

Newton's average season is completing 296 of  497 attempts for 3630 yards with 22 touchdowns, 12 interception and 35 sacks. While rushing 116 times for 600 yards and 7 touchdowns with 8 fumbles. 

As a passer, what we saw from Tom Brady in 2019 is a normal year for Cam Newton. With how Cam is playing unless he improves, his projected passing stats should be 2469 yards 4 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. On the ground he's projected 717 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

Obviously his projections are gonna change based on strengths of the defense. 

With exception to the seattle game, Newton is only averaging 150 yards a game threw the air. Taking into account Seattle has the worst pass defense and is giving up 368 yards per game, Newton was bound to have inflated stats versus them. 

While Cam is having a great year on the ground, he makes the Patriots passing game worse than it was in 2019. There was a narrative the Patriots would be a better team but would look worse and while Cam is helping move the ball with his legs, over his last three starts he's shown that he's running or hanging on to the ball with open targets. 

Thus where Cam Newton was supposed to make the offense better, he's actually made it worse. With Cam being the starter, his backups are getting garbage snaps in practice and it has showed on the field with his backups putting up comparable stats to Cam Newton. 

Hoyer's game was comparable to tonight's game versus the 49ers. While Stidham's games have been comparable to the first half versus the raiders, and to Newton's performance tonight. 

All three quarterbacks are passing at the same level, that's with Newton getting the bulk of the snaps for the Chiefs and Broncos game. Remember, practice was canceled after Cam got covid and the team did virtual meetings the Saturday and Sunday before the game.

Then with Gilmore and a couple other players testing positive, practice for the Denver game was canceled again until Newton was cleared to return. 

As was said versus the Broncos, practice makes a difference. If Newton is the one getting the practice reps, it means the other two are still coming in unprepared. Yet both men have slung it comparable to the former mvp. 

The Seattle game was an anomaly and the Patriots have issues at quarterback. Proving the quarterback competition between the three was legit and that the sportswriters that said Cam was the worst passer of the three may have been correct after all.

There is no connection between Brady's 2019 and Newton's 2020 struggles.

The Patriots are 5 games in the books and people are trying to tie Cam Newton's struggles to Tom Brady's struggles in 2019.

Cam Newton is a 497 attempt a season quarterback who is only accurate 59.8% of the time. Newton averages 3,630 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 INTs with 36 sacks. Newton averages 600 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground with 8 fumbles.

Newton missed 1 game but is on pace for 435 attempts, completing 68.1% for 3266 yards with 8 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and 34 sacks. 843 yards rushing with 18 rushing touchdowns.

With exception to his projection on rushing touchdowns, and his improved pass completion percentage due to the Patriots changing his mechanics, Newton is on pace to keep up with his normal averages. Thus without even showing Tom Brady's stats for 2019, the myth that Newton's struggles shed light on Brady's 2019 has been busted.

Cam Newton owning his struggles

Six of Cam Newton's last eight quarters of football have been bad, going back to his game against the Las Vegas Raiders. This last game Newton showed lack of vision, hanging on to the ball too long with open pass catchers.

In four games, Newton has been sacked nine times. He has thrown four interceptions, with several dropped interceptions. He only has two passing touchdowns to his name along with just under nine hundred yards passing. 

As a starter for the Patriots, Newton is two and two. Newton will be facing the San Francisco Forty Niners next. 

The Patriots fan base is split, about one third will tell you that as a passer; Newton has been average at best. The rest of the fan base will tell you Cam's passing stats are among the best and say his passing stats alone are worthy of the MVP. Go figure, there's some player bias there. 

So what does Newton think of his play? Mike Reiss found out. Here's his opinion, "Our excuse basket is running real low. We're getting guys back we missed for weeks, even though we're missing a couple other guys, but we got enough to compete with anybody and I mean anybody.

I just haven't been good. I haven't matched enough good plays together for my liking. That's what it comes down to. When I mean 'good plays,' I mean right reads, I mean ball positioning, I mean making guys miss. The whole gamut of how I play.

I know what I'm capable of. My standard is extremely high and I haven't been meeting it. My personal standard. That's how I feel.

It's 'Do Your Job'. Focus on your fundamentals and play your best ball when your best ball is needed. Simple."

Some of the fan base will agree with Cam and others will say he's being to hard on himself. They'll blame Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, the offensive line, the pass catchers, even the Carolina Panthers GM for not giving Cam Newton weapons in 2020. 

Regardless of what fans think, all that matters is what Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft think, what they see on the field and in practice. The Patriots are 2 and 3, as long as Newton takes responsibility for his bad play as a passer; there's hope he can improve.

49ers at Patriots

The Patriots are going to be playing the 49ers at home. The Patriots are coming off a game where Cam Newton was hanging on to the ball to long and not seeing open pass catchers, besides the fact that he was inaccurate all game and was under a lot of pressure due to an injured offensive line.

The Patriots only had 2 practices supposedly since the Chiefs game. I get how the banged up offensive line could've been impacted as many were playing out of position in the loss to Denver.

Fans that hyped Newton are now using that to defend the 31 year old, 10 year veteran's poor footwork and throwing mechanics during the loss. 

Sorry, his old Mechanics should've still been okay to win the game, if he's the quarterback that was hyped before the Patriots started changing his mechanics. 

The narrative that his pass catchers are not getting separation went out the window, after tape showed he had guys open on plays he hung on to the football too long with. Whether he didn't trust his arm or didn't see them is debatable. Now, Newton is a starter, dont get me wrong; He's just not a constant passer. 

For the game, the 49ers defense should be able to hold the Patriots offensive to 14. Newton as a passer did not look good through 3/4s of the first half versus Las Vegas and continued to look like a below average passer versus Denver.

Denver gave a blueprint of how to attack Cam. Play man and if the Patriots leave guys in to block, have the guys covering blitz. Make Newton beat you with his arm.

The 49ers are only giving up the 4.1 yards per run and I believe the Patriots run game is not enough to carry the offense, even with Newton carrying the ball 15 times a game. The Patriots just cannot count on the passing game to make a play when needed.

With that, the game is going to come down to how the Patriots defense does against the 49ers offense. My gut says the 49ers will play smart, not make mistakes and put up 22 on the Patriots.  

Now because Cam Newton is an inconsistent quarterback, he is the wildcard but I have no faith that he will play better than he did versus the Raiders or Miami. He should play better than he did versus Denver. Should being the key word.

The Patriots need a quarterback that can throw over 200 yards constantly, that does not appear to be Cam. Cam will have his games, like versus Seattle but those games will just serve to inflate his poor passing stats.

The 49ers need to score a touchdown in the first half, and then just play smart. I believe 4 field goal drives and a touchdown will be good enough to get passed the Patriots. Play ball control offense and keep Cam off the field as long as possible. Make the Patriots have to pass due to time constraints. 

Final score 22-14 San Francisco.

The Patriots players aren't playing to their strengths

So Belichick is normally a good player evaluator. So looking at the roster going back to 2018. I'm thinking Bill saw more on paper and from his specific films than we're seeing. I don't believe the players are performing to the levels Bill knows they can play at. 

Newton is supposed to be a duel elite threat. 

Harry is a big body slot receiver.

Byrd is a explosive receiver if he can get past coverage.

Edelman is a shifty guy with normally good hands.

Izzo is known for his blocking and showed potential last year as a big body threat.

Asiasi and Keene look like they should be a light version of Gronk and Hernandez.

When taking all that into consideration, if the guys were playing to expectations; the Patriots would be dominating the passing game and opening up the run game even more.

No way the these guys are playing as well as what Bill saw when assembling this team. There are other guys one could add, that aren't playing to their strengths.

Patriots Need A True X Receiver or A Productive Tight End To Stretch The Field.

The Patriots need one of two things. Either a true X receiver or a productive tight end, either one are needed to stretch the field.

Looking at how the tight ends are being used, it doesn't look like they're high on the progression for Newton. I'd say they're his 4th read/option most of the time. Which could explain lack of production from the tight ends.

Out of the names being mentioned, AJ Green is still to me the best option of the receivers but he was tagged and is getting paid $18 Million. He would have to come in and be extended for the Patriots to make that move.

Green is 32, so like with Newton, I would do a two year extension. Lock him up until 2022 and hopefully move some of that cap to next year. If he can revive his career great, if not he's only on a short leash. Easy to cut.

Sure Green isn't putting up great numbers this season but he has a rookie quarterback throwing to him. The jury is still out on whether ot not Burrow will be a bust. Like people said with Newton, we don't need elite, we need productivity. McDaniels should be able to scheme that.

There are tight ends being listed for trade but I think Walker is still a viable option at free agent if the team wants to bring in another guy to the unit.

Cam Newton is having a normal year.

The Carolina Panthers had Cam Newton for 9 seasons. The Patriots have had him since late June. After Sunday's loss, there are two things I've heard.

Carolina fans saying they've seen Newton's line crumble and him have open receivers like he had versus Denver and yet still hang on to the ball to long.

Then I hear Patriots fans say this game was completely uncharacteristic of Newton. That he normally is more accurate and doesn't hang on to the ball that long and avoids sacks.

Off the bat before I go and look up his career sack total, I know he throws on average 12 Interceptions and fumbles 8 times a season. That his career pass completion percentage was under 60% coming into the season. I remember that from when I wrote about him as part of DPN.

Alright, so after checking, Cam Newton averages little over 36 sacks a season or 6.8% of passing plays.

There's been complaints about how few touchdown passes the guy has thrown. The guy only averages 22 touchdown passes and 3700 yards a season.

According to pro football reference, Newton from 2011-2018 had a QBR of 57.66 and a rating of 85.83.

Pretty much as a passer, 2019 Tom Brady is Pretty much Cam Newton as a quarterback, with 2015 being the lone exception.

The thing that makes Cam different and this will have a negative impact on the running backs is, Newton averages 600 yards on the ground and 7 rushing touchdowns. If Newton is running it, his backs aren't. Thus less productive from the stable.

Statistically, Newton is right on track to match his career stats in most every category, except touchdown passes and completion percentage.

I expected the Patriots to have a floor of 7-9, and the ceiling varied. The Denver loss, I had as a win. Stidham should've started and let Cam come back versus San Francisco.

At the moment I am glad that the Patriots haven't signed Newton to a long term lucrative deal. I said a two year $50 Million extension but that maybe too much. Cam's working on his throwing mechanics to try and become more of a pocket passer at age 31.

If things continue on their trajectory, I say he'll be worth a 2 year $34 Million extension. Not a penny more. Again, they should wait until after the Arizona game to determine his future. 

Cam Newton in his last two games has played at the level expected from Jarrett Stidham.

This is what I saw when I said Newton's play in the first half versus LV was equally to Stidham's play versus KC. Check out this from the Boston Sports Journal.

Plus, Stidham played in less time vs KC in his 4 drives than Newton played in his first 4 drives vs LV. I would've loved to of seen what Stidham could've done if Edelman didn't cause an INT vs KC. Stidham was trashed for playing both worse than Newton, who is being treated like he's accomplished as much as Tom Brady, Joe Montana, or John Elway.

Newton should've sat versus Denver and came back versus San Francisco. I know Way back in the past Newton won an MVP for a franchise not named the Patriots, and if we go further back, Newton was a college star that won the Heismann Trophy. 

This is the present, and every excuse being given for Newton's bad play just further supports my case. Especially the excuse that the 31 year old, former MVP and 10 year veteran is working on new throwing Mechanics after a decade of playing in the NFL.

Even Evan Lazar of CLNS said "The Tape showed Newton had open receivers and the blame falls just as much on Newton as it does his offensive line."

Sorry Cam doesn't get a pass this time. He was given a pass after week 3. The guy has played 4 games now. As a rusher, the guys been elite. As a passer, he's been extremely inconsistent and has only had 1 good game. Newton is not always going to be able to run the football. 

Cam is the starter until he's not. If he cannot show half to three fourths of the poise he had versus Seattle, the Patriots aren't making the playoffs. Then again, this is just a business trip for him.