Translate

Sunday, April 12, 2020

Should the Patriots draft a quarterback or run with Stidhamania?

On March 16th, a date that will live forever in infamy, Tom Brady informed the Patriots of a decision he knew he was going to make long, long before, when he met with Patriots owner Robert Kraft. On that night Tom Brady put on a show to try and make Kraft think it was a hard decision as he told the Patriots organization he was not coming back. It was such a hard decision that The Goat left bread crumbs that he was leaving, going all the way back to the spring of 2019. Tom Brady had been the man under center since 2001 when he stole the job from Drew Bledsoe.

The Patriots had Danny Etling and Brian Hoyer on the roster when drafting Jarrett Stidham on April 27th, in the fourth round of the 2019. Stidham previously projected a first round prospect, saw his stats and draft value decline as everything went to hell at Auburn. In fact things were so bad at the university, there's a conspiracy that Adam Gase or Freddie Kitchens were phoning in the game plan for the team.

On August 13th, the Patriots released fan favorite Danny Etling whom had converted to wide receiver. On August 31st, 2019 the Patriots cut Brian Hoyer. The Patriots would later sign Quarterback Cody Kessler during the 2019 season before cutting him in the spring of 2020.

In 2019 the Patriots were 9th in passing yards per game averaging 245.3 yards. The team's 60.58 completion percentage was good enough for 25th. The team also was ranked 17th in yards per completion at 10.5 yards but when it came to picking up a first down the team was ranked 22 only picking up a first down 58.43 percent of passing attempts. Offenses who aren't that good normally have more yards per game through the air because they're playing catch up. 

Currently the Patriots have two quarterbacks backs on the roster. Veteran Brian Hoyer who has started 38 games with a career record of 16 wins and 22 losses. Hoyer has completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 10,274 yards. With 52 touchdowns and 34 interceptions. Hoyer is an intelligent game manager who doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Hoyer was also responsible for using Rams media to learn their audibles and prep the Patriots defense for a superbowl victory. Hoyer is a capable starter and an asset in the quarterback room to mentor younger quarterbacks.

The other Quarterback is Jarrett Stidham. As stated earlier in the article, Stidham was projected as a first round quarterback going into his final college season. If you read up on him, you'll see many scouts and writers have said that his falling out of the first round had nothing to do with his talent level. How good was Stidham after the 2017 season? According to Peter Santo, CBS had Stidham was the top quarterback in the 2019 draft. After the 2018 season, Sports Illustrated said that Stidham's decline was a productive of circumstance. Here's the two quotes:
Jarrett Stidham's touchdown to Interception ratio was nearly Identical during his last two years but his yards and completion percentage dipped in his final year. In 2017 Playing in 14 games, Stidham completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 3158 yards. Throwing 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions with a rating of 151. In 2018 playing 13 games, Stidham completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 2794 yards, 18 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and a rating of 137.7. His college total was 64.3 percent of his passes for 7217 yards averaging 9 yards per attempt, with 48 touchdowns, 13 Interceptions and a rating of 151.4. 

Speaking of 151, don't let Stidham's college stats cause you to drink. Stidham had a great preseason. In fact of all of Tom Brady's backups, Stidham had the best 2019 preseason out of them all. Here are the stats.

Stidham: 61-90, 731 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 8.1 yards per attempt, 102.6 passer rating
Danny Etling: 20-of-38, 178 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 4.7 yards per attempt, 52.3 passer rating
Brissett: 38-56, 387 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 6.9 yards per attempt, 93.4 passer rating
Garoppolo: 46-79, 618 yards, f5 touchdowns, 1 interception, 7.8 yards per attempt, 99 passer rating
Mallett: 38-63, 357 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 5.7 yards per attempt, 72 passer rating
Brian Hoyer: 29-44, 354 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 8 yards per attempt, 98.1 passer rating

"So, while preseason stats might not be particularly predictive of future success in most cases, those numbers basically align with the careers those quarterbacks since have had. Garoppolo has been the best, followed by Brissett and Hoyer in some order, then Mallett and Etling far behind the pack.

Stidham had the best numbers while also showing the largest sample size, which is notable. The Patriots wanted to get a good look at Stidham, so Hoyer — the Patriots’ veteran backup last season — didn’t play in the third or fourth preseason games. The Patriots then kept Stidham as their backup over Hoyer, who, in turn, signed with the Indianapolis Colts to back up Brissett." - Doug Kyed NESN.

Stidham also got a huge advantage most quarterbacks dont get. He got to spend a year behind Tom Brady The GOAT and got to study him. Then the one positive of Marshall Newhouse, Stidham got to practice with the first string against the top 5 Boogeymen defense. Stidham had a great connection with Jakobi Meyers in the preseason and got an extra chance to build a connection with the rest the core due to Brady being banged up. Thank you Mr. Newhouse.

Stiddy as they call him, didn't look good on the field during the regular season. He went 2 of 4 for 14 yards and a Pick six. Causing the Patriots enough concern to sign Cody Kessler. No matter how much talent Stidham has or how many excuses that can be found for his 2018 decline, the fact is he did decline and was only a 4th round project quarterback selection. That the team thought so little of, that they signed and kept a third quarterback when they had other needs. Needs like resigning Maurice Harris or Antonio Garcia.

The 2020 NFL draft was said to be a very deep quarterback class. There were at least 40 quarterbacks that looked like NFL starters after the 2019 NCAA season finished before they started declaring. Quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyler Huntley and Justin Herbert. Of my top 40 I ranked, Stidham was ranked 21.5 of 40 when I compared him. 

The Patriots have four picks in the top 100 and twelve total, with their highest pick being the number 23. There are 5 quarterbacks expected to go in round one. And 8-10 projected to go in the first three rounds, like Jordan Love or Patriots legacy Jacob Eason. Regardless of the round, drafting a quarterback puts pressure on both Hoyer and Stidham. Competition is normally a good when it comes to sports. 

Cole McDonald of Hawaii or Malcolm Perry of Navy could add competition and if they lose, could be converted to receiver or running back. 

The downside of drafting a quarterback are the Patriots have needs and would have to give up on one them, if they take a quarterback. The other downside is it could cause a negative mentality of Stidham in the organization. If Stidham shows he's the heir to the kingdom, he could find taking a quarterback to compete with, as a sign of disrespect and get greedy at resigning time. Remember how insulted Brock Osweiler was after winning a superbowl because of getting replaced by Manning? Although it killed his career, it also hurt Denver.

The Patriots best bet may just be to run with Hoyer and Stidham. Let the two battle. If Stidham wins the job and takes the Patriots to the playoffs, continue building the team to run at the superbowl around Him. If the team sucks in 2020, use the higher draft picks to trade up for Trevor Lawrence or whomever the top quarterback is in the 2021 draft. As much as I hate to sound like a broken record, the Patriots are in a win-win with the current 2020 quarterback depth chart.

No comments:

Post a Comment