The Patriots offense, reason to be excited or cause to be concerned?

On Sunday the Patriots took on the Miami Dolphins at home. The Dolphins are still in rebuilding mode and were expected to finish third in the division. NFL.com ranked the Dolphins heading into week 1 at 26th, Most other site rankings had them between 24th and 32nd. NFL.com ranked the Patriots 15th and ESPN 9th.

The Patriots finished 18th in rushing in 2019 but now have an improved Offensive line, plus an "elite" running quarterback. The Dolphins finished 27 last season against the run, and tried to improve by adding Kyle Van Noy. So this was a game the Patriots should've won, clearly and decisively.

N'Keal Harry and Nick Folk kept 10 points off the board. Fitzpatrick kept points off the board for Miami, so that evens out. 

In a game the Patriots should've won, Cam Newton threw the ball 19 times. He completed 15 passes for 155 yards but zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Newton also ran the ball 15 times and had 75 of the Patriots 217 yards rushing. He also had two rushing touchdowns.

The Patriots offensive as of 945pm on Monday September 14th, is ranked 19th of 32 teams in total yards and 18th in points scored. Yes, I am aware that the Patriots left 10 points on the field but that's just it, they left 10 points on the field. 

If not for poor play by Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins put up more yards and more points against the Patriots. McDaniels was too conservative, and as a fan I could call when it was going to be a run versus Miami. If I can do it, defensive coordinators can do it. 

65% of the Patriots runs were by design. But when the Patriots were running, it was obvious. On the first drive of the second half, the passing plays were also obvious. McDaniels did little to disguise his offense against Miami. That might work against bottom 32 teams but against top 10 teams, defensive coordinators are going to eat McDaniels alive if he makes his play calling that obvious, especially if he stays conservative also.

I want to give my readers something to think about.

If one looks at the 32 ranked Jacksonville Jaguars, on offense, they called 1/3 less plays and only had 106 fewer yards than the Patriots. They also had fewer takeaways on defense than the Patriots in week one by 1, while playing the number 11 ranked colts. 

Minshew went 19 of 20 for 173 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also rushed for 5 times for 19 yards. If he rushed another 10 times, he was in pace for 57 yards total. If the Jaguars had ran the same number of plays against the colts as the Patriots ran against Miami, they were on pace to put up 360 yards for the day. I.E. if they had that 1 extra take away to tie the Patriots.

As expected the the number 11 Colts put up almost twice as many yards as the number 26 dolphins. Jacksonville barely walked away with the victory beating a much superior team according to professional rankings.

Josh McDaniels, N'Keal Harry kept this game closer than it should've been but Fitzmagic may have prevented the Dolphins from getting the upset. 

What this means is although the Patriots got the W, they played far below their power rankings. In 2019 The Patriots had the 15th best offense, the Jags had the 20th and are now considered one of the worst teams, if not the worst team in football. The Patriots offense looks worse than the Jags when considering the ranks of both offenses and the ranks of their week one opponents. 

It's too soon to crown the Patriots the division winners. It's too soon to say that Cam Newton has returned to MVP from. Especially with how predictable and stagnant their offense looked. This offense has the pieces to be explosive but does it have the play calling to be explosive or is Josh McDaniels as conservative a coordinator as Tyrod Taylor is a quarterback. 

As a life long fan, there haven't been many times that I have said I was bored watching a Patriots game. I said it during superbowl 53. I said it a few times in 2019, including week 2. Now, I find myself saying it again for the 2020 season opener.

Right now, the team is looking like it could be a 9-7 team. Now that the preseason game is over, the Patriots have a chance to prove how good they are, when they take on the number 9 ranked Seahawks in week 2. 

Seattle isn't going to let any mistakes by the Patriots get bye. I had the Patriots scheduled for a loss, with this being a coin flip game for Cam. Now, after week one's offensive performance, I'll be surprised if the Patriots don't get shutdown and blown out.