It's Development, Not Scouting That's The Problem.

Bill Belichick the general manager gets a lot of heat for not hitting on the draft. For years people have complained that prospects have to nail the interview process to get drafted but nobody has ever asked why that was. I wanna give my thoughts on that.

Belichick has hit on day three guys but more specifically UDFAs. The top talent is supposed to come from the first three rounds, and that's where the issues seem to come from. Let's look from 2011-2020 at the Patriots first three round guys and see how many elite talent Bill has hit or missed on. Remember there are elite and then there are serviceable. Just because a guy played well, doesn't make them elite.

In 2011 the Patriots drafted: (5) Nate Solder, Ras-I Dowling, Shane Vereen, Steven Ridley, Ryan Mallett.

2012: (4) Chandler Jones, Donta Hightower, Tavon Wilson, Jake Baquette.

2013: (4) Jamie Collins, Aaron Dobson, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon.

2014: (2) Dominique Easliy, Jimmy Garoppolo.

2015: (3) Malcolm Brown, Jordan Richards, Gino Grissom.

2016: (4) Cyrus Jones, Joe Thuney, Jacoby Brissett, Vincent Valentine.

2017: (2) Derek Rivers, Antonio Garcia.

2018: (3) Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel, Duke Dawson.

2019: (5) N'Keal Harry, Joejuan Williams, Chase Winovich, Damian Harris, Yodney Cajuste.

2020: (5) Kyle Dugger, Josh Uche, Anfree Jennings, Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene.

If we're honest and not being homers, out of these thirty seven drafted, the Patriots have had only five guys that could be possibly considered elite. Ten guys might be considered serviceable and that's being generous on two. That's a total of fifteen, leaving twenty two guys as draft busts. Fourth round is where the project guys and draft steals come from for the most part.

Now the reason I believe the Patriots do so well in free agency is they take guys that were already developed, and plug them in and use them intelligently. They only have to do some minor tweaking developmentally. However, when it comes to their own, I don't think they have the ability to consistency develop their guys. Look at their track record with each individual position because there are what 17 to 20 positions if we include all the special teams positions. And the positions get divided into different categories.

Belichick trys to get intelligent and preferable NFL ready players coming out of the draft. So he doesn't have to spend as much time developing them because that is an area of weakness for the Patriots. Outside of a few people, the Patriots also have had trouble retaining coaches, which leads to the problem.

Now there's a lot of draft picks from rounds four through seven that have been serviceable from that time but not a lot of elite talent. Getting serviceable players is a good thing, except for the fact that it's exactly what the Patriots are looking for. 

After round three, it's a crapshoot on drafting players. The Patriots are looking for guys that can be plugged in and play roles, depth guys. They look for intelligent guys that they don't expect much from in those later rounds. Again, guys that are NFL ready. So it's a lot easier for them to find serviceable players. It's also why the Patriots UDFAs are watched by other clubs, and why Belichick has found so many hidden gems. 

The Patriots seem to struggle developing early draft picks and it's not hard to see that. These are guys who excell at being one trick ponys and don't get proper college development. 

Now one can make the case the Patriots are bad at scouting but if that's the case, how do the Patriots find so many serviceable day three and UDFA players? It's not that they cannot scout, it's the elite talent level guys aren't always ready for the NFL and the Patriots struggle to bring them to the professional level. And that is the weak link of the Patriots organization under Bill Belichick.

Remember, unless they're already developed coming out of college, it doesn't matter how much talent a player has if a professional team cannot developed them. The Patriots could've selected DK or Chubbs but could they bring them up to speed for the NFL, there's no guarantee but odds aren't in the Patriots' favor.

Even Rober Kraft hinted that the Patriots had to do a better job of developing players after his big free agency spending. The owner sees it. He's not blind, even though his fan hood can get the best of him. It's time the rest of us acknowledge it as well. The first three rounds if the draft are a weakness, either due to scouting or coaching. Not trying to be negative just trying to point out areas the Patriots can improve on. If one cannot admit flaws, one is destined for failure at something. A 20 year dynasty is 40% hard work and talent, the other 60% luck. The Patriots percentage of luck fell in 2020 and they didn't have the developed talent to cover for it.