What Are The Odds Belichick And The Patriots Part Ways With Cam Before The Season Starts?

In 1975 Bill Belichick entered the league as the Baltimore Colts' special teams assistant. By 1977 he was the Detriot Lions receivers coach. Now almost 50 years later, he's still in the NFL. Bill Belichick has seen it all. He's seen his share of rookie quarterbacks start and fail, and he's seen his share of rookie quarterbacks succeed in year one. He knows what it takes to put them in the best chance for that.

While many sports writers are afraid of the Cam Newton bandwagon, Andy Hart is the latest media personal to say he might not make the roster. Leaving that bandwagon flabbergasted. 

Newton looked like a starter against some of the weakest defenses in the NFL in 2020 but the rest of the season, Newton looked like a middle of the pack backup. Hell, as a passer his play was very comparable to his own backup Jarrett Stidham. Who there are some who would have the Patriots keep over Newton.

Here's what Hart wrote, "The Patriots drafted Jones No. 15 overall because they needed a QB. The rookie had a solid spring, looking at least as good as Cam Newton most days. If Newton doesn’t clearly win the starting job, which is the scenario here, he’s probably better off looking for work elsewhere. There is also reason/room to put Brian Hoyer on the practice squad."

Now Hart isn't alone on his thoughts that Newton doesn't make the roster. There have been members of the media who believe Hoyer was throwing the ball this spring taken reps away from the other three, when they need to develop Jones and sell Stidham because Newton might get beat out and cut.

Is the percentage high, we don't know how the Patriots evaluate the quarterbacks at the moment so we don't know. However, I want to remind people of somethings we the Patriots fanbase said was never gonna happen. 

AB will never get signed by the Patriots. Tom Brady will never leave the Patriots. Cam Newton will never be a Patriot. Rob Gronkowski will never play for anyone but the Patriots. And last one, the Patriots will never trade for OBJ. They haven't yet but they were "aggressively trying" in 2019. As fans our nevers are as accurate as claims the 2020 elections fraudulent. Okay maybe that's a little unfair since there's zero truth to those claims but you get the point.

Now last season, I said that Cam Newton as a passer would put up the same stats pretty much as brady as a passer. I said his yards would be a little lower due to his rushing abilities but his stats would be about the same. Acknowledging Newton is a double digit interception thrower.

In 2019 Tom Brady threw for 4057 yards, 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In 2020 Newton would throw for 2657 yards, 8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. 600 yards and 17 touchdown passes less than what I had projected for him. I watched the games just like everyone else. Newton had open pass catchers, he failed to get them the ball. If his pass catchers weren't so good at catching uncatchable passes, his stats would've been worse. Their lack of production is on him.

Now Mac Jones is a rookie and hasn't played a meaningful snap in the NFL but lets compare their college stats.

Cam Newton threw 292 passes, completing 65.4% of them. Throwing for a mere 2908 yards, with 30 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Newton would also rush 264 times for 1473 yards and 20 touchdowns. Although Newton did this in 20 games majority of it came in his final season. Unfortunately it was so long ago that fumbles aren't listed.

Mac Jones played in 10 more games than Newton but majority came in his final 24 games. Jones completed 74.3% of his 556 passes. Jones threw for 6126 yards with 56 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Jones would also rush for 42 yards and 2 touchdowns on 54 carries.

Both quarterbacks put up impressive numbers during their final seasons. However, Jones had the more impressive passing statistics. While Newton looked like a freak athlete. And we've all seen Mac Jones's rookie picture. Nobody will mistake Mac as a freak athlete.

Now Jones was compared to Brady as far as his ability to run the Patriots offense. So I have decided to look at Brady's stats since he took the starting job. I am going to see what Brady's career worst passing numbers are and compare them to Newton's 2020. My thinking is that Jones should be able to at the least to match those numbers. These numbers will not be from the same season.

Jones is more mobile than Brady, so I am going to include Brady's best rushing stats. They're not impressive but I'll explain why I'm doing this in the next paragraph.

If Mac Jones was Brady at his worst, Mac Jones would throw 413 passes, completing 60.2% of his passes for 2843 yards with 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Being more mobile Jones could rush 43 times for 110 yards and 4 touchdowns. Especially if Jones is also hanging on to the ball too long and getting sacked 41 times. Eventually he'll be running for his life and scrambling. And that's were his mobility will help him.

Now lets compare these stats to Newton from 2020.

413 attempts, 60.2% competitions, 2843 yards, combined 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. With 110 yards on the ground.

VS. 

368 Attempts, 65.8% completions, 2657 yards, combined 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. With 592 yards on the ground.

Newton would move the ball better but the rest is comparable. Mac Jones is a rookie, he's gonna make mistakes whenever he finally starts. 

Remember Newton only threw a catchable pass barely over 73% of the time. The one thing that's the one thing Brady and Jones have over Newton at their worst days. They're more accurate with ball placement, meaning Jones could have a worse completion percentage by making smart decisions with the ball.

Does it make sense for Belichick to start Jones and cut Newton? Only on these conditions. 1) Belichick values accuracy over athleticism. 2) Jones shows a better understanding of the Patriots offensive including what they expect pre and post game reads. And believes that it's better than Cam's with Newton 11 years of experience added into the mix.

Remember those of you saying Belichick would never do that, we discussed a plethora of things Belichick would never do that he did or tried to do. So yes, Belichick could start Mac Jones and cut Cam Newton. So instead of dealing in certainties, start dealing in probabilities. 

At the moment I'll say there's a 1 in 6 or 16% chance that this situation occures. Depending on how both quarterbacks look in the preseason, those odds could go up or down. What do you think, are these odds too high, just right, or too low to start with?