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Saturday, June 26, 2021

Cam Should Have A Better Year Due To Upgrades But The Upgrades Should Drop In Producton Due To Newton.

In theory, Cam Newton should have a better season in 2021. He's on his second year in the system. He's had a full spring for the most part, minus time for his hand injury.  He'll get a full august program, and the Patriots signed four new pass catchers.

However, there's just as much of a chance that the new pass catchers suffer. Cam Newton threw a catchable pass 73.9% of the time. That's the same percentage as Herbert in L.A. , Tannehill threw a catchable pass 79.6% of the time. The three 49ers quarterbacks combined, threw a catchable pass 76.8% of the time. And Derek Carr threw a catchable pass 76.6 percent of the time. 

That means Jonnu Smith is going to receive 5.7% less catchable passes, Kendrick Bourne will have a drop of 2.9%, Agholor will see a drop of 2.7% on catchable passes. While Henry wont see a difference.

On top of that Pro football reference ranks Newton as the 25th best passer in the NFL for 2020. Herbert was ranked 4th, Tannehill was ranked 18th, Carr was ranked 14th. And while they had good catchable passes Mullens and Garoppolo were ranked 29th and 40th.

That means Henry's passer is declining 21 spots. Agholor's passer is declining 11 spots, Smith's passer is declining 7 spots, while Bourne improves 4 to 15 spots.

With that, while Newton should improve due to the new talent around him. The new guys should see a drop in production due to Newton's inability to deliver catchable passes. It's a double edged sword. The question is how much will Newton's ball placement hurt the individual pass catchers?

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