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Wednesday, June 30, 2021

With All The Heads Butting Over The Patriots Starting Quarterback position, I'm Surprised The Media Hasn't Gotten CTE.

Cam Newton will start for the Patriots. Cam Newton won't start for the Patriots. Does it ever remind you of the loony toons skits of "which way did he go?" Two different NFL analysts recently gave their opinions on the subject of whether or not Cam starts.

Greg Cosell recently told the Ross Tucker podcast “I think it will be Cam Newton. I think what they did in free agency, and again it’s always difficult to get into the head of Bill Belichick as you well know, Ross. But I think what they did in free agency, what they’ve done the last couple years, indicates that this could be a little bit of an old-school offense built on the run game. Let’s play with two tight ends with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. I thought Damien Harris looked very good last year when he got the opportunity to play before some injuries kicked in. They still have Sony Michel. They actually drafted a big physical runner, Rhamondre Stevenson, in the fourth round out of Oklahoma. I think you are going to see a little bit of 12 personnel. They’ll be a little old-school. They’ll try to run the ball. They’ll try to control tempo of games. And they’ll try to win that way. And of course Cam Newton fits extremely well into a run-based offense because you’ve got the quarterback run game. So Cam Newton will be the starting quarterback.”

If you're a Cam Newton fan, you love hearing this. However, not everyone shares Cosell's opinion. Former New England Patriots turned NFL analysts Rob Ninkovich also recently gave his thoughts on Cam Newton on ESPN's Get up. And if you're a Mac Jones fan, you'll like this.

Ninkovich said, "No I do not (expect a bounce-back season). This doesn’t come from hate. I’m looking at this perspective of there’s two types of offenses the Patriots will have to run. One completely different offense with Cam Newton, and the other with Mac Jones. The team is built right now to have a typical pro-stlye, quarterback-under-center, run the football, 22 personnel, 23 personnel. They’re going to be better-suited with Mac Jones under center. And Cam’s still going to have a big role in this offense. You’re going to see him in the red zone. He’s still going to have a big impact on this team. But he’s not going to be the big breakout guy. It’s going to be Mac Jones.”

Two different people with two different views on how the team is built. Two different views on if Cam Newton starts. I do find it funny that Ninkovich mentioned Newton in the red zone. With Cam's accuracy, Ninkovich must be talking about Newton's legs and Mac Jones's arm is more dangerous in closer spaces.  However, these are just two of many butting heads over the Patriots quarterback situation.

Mac Jones Made Serious Progress This Spring

The Patriots drafted Alabama quarterback Mac Jones in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. Jones was said to be the most NFL ready and also thought to be the most intelligent of all the rookie quarterback prospects.

In his first spring with the Patriots, Jones had a good camp and impressed teammates and coaches early. Jones's intelligence showed early. He seemed to grasp what the Patriots wanted to do early. By the time minicamp camp concluded, Jones was making adjustments at the line. And his accuracy was on point.

Mike Giardi recently wrote, “It’s not just the physical that stands out. The Pats have thrown everything at Jones, and his grasp of a playbook that’s over 20 years in the making has been impressive. As one (unnamed) offensive teammate told me, ‘Mac sees the game the way (offensive coordinator) Josh (McDaniels) sees it.'”

Alex Barth of CLNS and 98.5 the sports hub wrote, "While he (Mac) made some rookie mistakes at times, there were also no ‘red flag’ moments, or issues that seemed to be beyond repair."

Jones has people talking. Bill Belichick named Cam Newton the starter but from everything that Mac Jones showed and Cam didn't show this spring, many expect a true quarterback competition when the team meets in late July.

Many in the media are comparing this year to last year. Putting Newton in Stidham's shoes and Jones in Newton's. They all pretty much say the same thing. That Alex Barth said.

Alex added, Newton has "spent nearly a decade in the NFL, whereas Jones is coming in as a rookie." Giving Newton a slight advantage. However, unlike most rookie quarterbacks, Jones is coming from Alabama which is the closest thing the NCAA has to an NFL team.

The media is also trying to stir the pot and create a rift already between McDaniels and Belichick over who starts. Referring to Jones as a McDaniels guy and Cam a Newton guy. Last year, some believe that McDaniels wanted to go with Stidham late in the year and when asked, said " I'm comfortable with Stidham's development" and a quarterback change is "Belichick's decision."

Many Patriots fans are eager to see what Jones looks like in the preseason. They got used to passers like Brian Hoyer, Jimmy Garoppolo,.and Tom Brady. So much so that Passers like Cam Newton just don't cut it. These fans are at odds with those who like Newton's style and want to see Cam extended for another three to five years.

Until the Patriots are dominant on offense again, the rift between the two sides is not likely to change but with Mac Jones showing progress, that could be sooner than later.

Ninkovich Not Sold On Cam Newton.

Consistency, for an athlete, it's everything. If an athlete is inconsistent, they typically don't have long careers but there are exceptions. Especially in team sports. Those exceptions eventually get caught and are bumped out of their sport.

Take Cam Newton. Inconsistency was and is his game. In Carolina, he produced three winning seasons in eight years and they weren't back to back. He had three seasons over 60% completion and again they weren't back to back. Showing he can be an accurate passer, again it just wasn't there regularly and couldn't be counted on.

Newton came to the Patriots and there was a lot of talk from fans that it was all Carolina that caused Newton's flaws. That Newton was an accurate quarterback. That he had no weapons. That he had no defense. That he had no protection. So we as fans gave him a chance. Many of us scrutinizing everything.

Newton ran it well in week one of the 2020 season but threw it poorly. In week two, Newton threw it good but ran poorly. Week three in the first half, Newton did everything poorly and should've been pulled. Newton had an up and down 2020 season. 

This spring Newton again had his highs and lows. And throughout his entire tenure in New England, the one thing he has consistently showed is he does not have the accuracy or anticipation that is required to run the Patriots offense. 

Long time New England Patriots and now media personality Rob Ninkovich spoke about Cam Newton. He's just the latest in a slew of former players across the league to talk about the Patriots signal caller. Here's what Ninkovich told Get Up.

Ninkovich said, "No, I do not (expect a bounce-back season). This doesn’t come from hate. I’m looking at this perspective of there’s two types of offenses that the Patriots would have to run. One completely different offense with Cam Newton, and the other with Mac Jones.

The team is built right now to have a typical pro-style quarterback under center, run the football, 22 personnel, 23 personnel. They’re gonna be better-suited with Mac Jones under center."

I'd add to what Ninkovich said and say they're also built to run a 13 personnel and could even sprinkle in some 14 personnel. The Patriots could very well go thin at receiver and load them up on the practice squad, depending on how Gunner Olszewski does.

Ninkovich continued,  "And Cam’s still going to have a big role in this offense. You’re going to see him in the red zone. He’s going to have a big impact on this team. But he’s not going to be the big breakout guy. It’s going to be Mac Jones."

There are many that believe that if Cam Newton doesn't win the quarterback competition, that he will be cut. Brian Hoyer getting reps helps fuel that. If Newton is released by some chance, there's little odds that another team will pick him up unless there's an Injury.

Newton has never fit the Patriots offense. I said it last year. It's easier to teach 1 guy a new offense than 52 guys. Newton struggles in the quick game. He struggles on anything horizontal in the passing game. 

There was a lot of criticism for how many sacks he took in Carolina. We saw last season and again this spring. He struggles to make presnap reads. And last season, it looked like he struggled to make the post snap as well.

Nothing against Cam but where he's consistent are not in positive areas. Newton can run and teams like Baltimore that utilize running quarterbacks might want him as a backup but his arm and his mental processor or football IQ is not on the level the Patriots want. 

Newton is on life support with the Patriots. How long does he have, who knows. All we do know is even though he had below average pass catchers in 2020, they bailed him out. The Patriots aren't going to let him hinder his pass catchers' production a second year in a row.

You know it's funny, his supporters said he didnt get a full offseason last year but when he was struggling this spring, they said it's just practice and doesn't matter. If Newton has a bad August, they say the same thing about the preseason but does anyone think that will be the mentality of the Patriots coaching staff or Robert Kraft?

How Much To Read Into a Tweet

It wasn't long ago Patriots fans were running with the slogan "the butler did it!" In reference to Malcolm Butler's interception of Russell Wilson in the superbowl. Along came Stephon Gilmore and after a few short years and a defensive player of the year award, nobody remembers Butler or at least they stopped talking about him.

When Gilmore signed, most everyone was shocked because the Patriots were having contract issues with Butler. Gilmore is now on the last year of his fuve year contract. 

On June 29th, Gilmore retweeted an image from CBS sports showing the top ten highest paid defensive backs. They ranged from $20 million down to $13.5 million. Gilmore just said "Oh OK..."

Gilmore is set to make $7 million this season and has stated that he'd like to stay in Foxboro. The big question is can both sides get a deal done? One things for sure, Gilmore is not gonna get a deal done on Twitter. Unless Belichick is gonna do something uncharacteristic.

After holding out of OTAs and minicamp, will Gilmore hold out come August? That's the big concern for Patriots fans when it comes to the defense. Gilmore is deserving of being on that list. The question is how deserving after suffering that leg injury last season?

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Cam Speaks About The Haters

Call it hate. Call it criticism. Defend him with justifications for his poor play or call those justifications nothing more than excuses. Keep calling anyone who criticizes him haters or anyone who defends him delusional. It doesn't matter. The Patriots fanbase has become nothing but drama since June of 2020.

The only opinions that matter are those that control whether Cam Newton plays or stays a member of the Patriots. Newton is hearing every word of it. He recently commented on the talk directed at and about him. Cam is really good at selling himself and knowing the right things to say. So take what he said with a grain of salt.

According to Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald, Cam Newton said, “Simple, feed your focus. Feed it. If the hate ain’t in my focus, I don’t feed it. I feed off of it, but I don’t feed it. It’s two different things. When I sense or when I dwell on hatred, that’s the product that’s gonna come out: rage, anger. But that’s the hatred using me, not me using the hatred. So I want to process that and make that fuel me. I don’t dwell on what a person may say, what this person may say, she say, I just use it to my advantage and I feed what I want it to feed.”

Well if that just ain't the Patriots' way. Saying something without saying anything. Newton says it doesn't bother him. To quote members of 'Patriots Nation', "what else was he gonna say?" Did anyone expect Newton to come out say he's pissed and to tell the media and fanbase off? If you did, you haven't been paying attention to how Newton's operated on his business trip.

Newton's got a brand to maintain. He's not gonna say anything that could hurt his image, his endorsements, or his wallet. He's gonna say everything right to try and prolong his NFL career. Once his playing days are done, then he might come out like Chad Ochocinco and trash the Patriots. Until then we have to wait.

We're all guilty of turning in to the people that tell us what we want to hear. From friends and family, to what political news station, to what sports personalities we want. There's a narrative to tell us what we want and we'll ignore anyone that says something outside of that. 

For now as a fan of the Patriots, I don't care what Cam Newton says. He said too much already, especially in the post game conferences last season. He's learned to tell people what they wanna hear. I don't care what the media says about him because one way or the other, it's all about money. Cam can do his talking for the remainder of the 2021 season on the field. 

His production will say more than anything that comes out of his or the media's mouth this season anyways. And that's the only thing I care about when it comes to Cam Newton. What has he done for the Patriots recently. We're still gonna read, watch, and listen until the season kicks off to stay informed but it don't matter. 

If the name on the front means more than the name on the back, you should be with me. No more excuses, no more talking, no more pitting the fanbase against each other. When it comes to the Patriots quarterbacks, Put up or shut up. The circus surrounding the Patriots quarterback position has grown tiresome.

What Are The Odds Belichick And The Patriots Part Ways With Cam Before The Season Starts?

In 1975 Bill Belichick entered the league as the Baltimore Colts' special teams assistant. By 1977 he was the Detriot Lions receivers coach. Now almost 50 years later, he's still in the NFL. Bill Belichick has seen it all. He's seen his share of rookie quarterbacks start and fail, and he's seen his share of rookie quarterbacks succeed in year one. He knows what it takes to put them in the best chance for that.

While many sports writers are afraid of the Cam Newton bandwagon, Andy Hart is the latest media personal to say he might not make the roster. Leaving that bandwagon flabbergasted. 

Newton looked like a starter against some of the weakest defenses in the NFL in 2020 but the rest of the season, Newton looked like a middle of the pack backup. Hell, as a passer his play was very comparable to his own backup Jarrett Stidham. Who there are some who would have the Patriots keep over Newton.

Here's what Hart wrote, "The Patriots drafted Jones No. 15 overall because they needed a QB. The rookie had a solid spring, looking at least as good as Cam Newton most days. If Newton doesn’t clearly win the starting job, which is the scenario here, he’s probably better off looking for work elsewhere. There is also reason/room to put Brian Hoyer on the practice squad."

Now Hart isn't alone on his thoughts that Newton doesn't make the roster. There have been members of the media who believe Hoyer was throwing the ball this spring taken reps away from the other three, when they need to develop Jones and sell Stidham because Newton might get beat out and cut.

Is the percentage high, we don't know how the Patriots evaluate the quarterbacks at the moment so we don't know. However, I want to remind people of somethings we the Patriots fanbase said was never gonna happen. 

AB will never get signed by the Patriots. Tom Brady will never leave the Patriots. Cam Newton will never be a Patriot. Rob Gronkowski will never play for anyone but the Patriots. And last one, the Patriots will never trade for OBJ. They haven't yet but they were "aggressively trying" in 2019. As fans our nevers are as accurate as claims the 2020 elections fraudulent. Okay maybe that's a little unfair since there's zero truth to those claims but you get the point.

Now last season, I said that Cam Newton as a passer would put up the same stats pretty much as brady as a passer. I said his yards would be a little lower due to his rushing abilities but his stats would be about the same. Acknowledging Newton is a double digit interception thrower.

In 2019 Tom Brady threw for 4057 yards, 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In 2020 Newton would throw for 2657 yards, 8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. 600 yards and 17 touchdown passes less than what I had projected for him. I watched the games just like everyone else. Newton had open pass catchers, he failed to get them the ball. If his pass catchers weren't so good at catching uncatchable passes, his stats would've been worse. Their lack of production is on him.

Now Mac Jones is a rookie and hasn't played a meaningful snap in the NFL but lets compare their college stats.

Cam Newton threw 292 passes, completing 65.4% of them. Throwing for a mere 2908 yards, with 30 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Newton would also rush 264 times for 1473 yards and 20 touchdowns. Although Newton did this in 20 games majority of it came in his final season. Unfortunately it was so long ago that fumbles aren't listed.

Mac Jones played in 10 more games than Newton but majority came in his final 24 games. Jones completed 74.3% of his 556 passes. Jones threw for 6126 yards with 56 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Jones would also rush for 42 yards and 2 touchdowns on 54 carries.

Both quarterbacks put up impressive numbers during their final seasons. However, Jones had the more impressive passing statistics. While Newton looked like a freak athlete. And we've all seen Mac Jones's rookie picture. Nobody will mistake Mac as a freak athlete.

Now Jones was compared to Brady as far as his ability to run the Patriots offense. So I have decided to look at Brady's stats since he took the starting job. I am going to see what Brady's career worst passing numbers are and compare them to Newton's 2020. My thinking is that Jones should be able to at the least to match those numbers. These numbers will not be from the same season.

Jones is more mobile than Brady, so I am going to include Brady's best rushing stats. They're not impressive but I'll explain why I'm doing this in the next paragraph.

If Mac Jones was Brady at his worst, Mac Jones would throw 413 passes, completing 60.2% of his passes for 2843 yards with 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Being more mobile Jones could rush 43 times for 110 yards and 4 touchdowns. Especially if Jones is also hanging on to the ball too long and getting sacked 41 times. Eventually he'll be running for his life and scrambling. And that's were his mobility will help him.

Now lets compare these stats to Newton from 2020.

413 attempts, 60.2% competitions, 2843 yards, combined 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. With 110 yards on the ground.

VS. 

368 Attempts, 65.8% completions, 2657 yards, combined 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. With 592 yards on the ground.

Newton would move the ball better but the rest is comparable. Mac Jones is a rookie, he's gonna make mistakes whenever he finally starts. 

Remember Newton only threw a catchable pass barely over 73% of the time. The one thing that's the one thing Brady and Jones have over Newton at their worst days. They're more accurate with ball placement, meaning Jones could have a worse completion percentage by making smart decisions with the ball.

Does it make sense for Belichick to start Jones and cut Newton? Only on these conditions. 1) Belichick values accuracy over athleticism. 2) Jones shows a better understanding of the Patriots offensive including what they expect pre and post game reads. And believes that it's better than Cam's with Newton 11 years of experience added into the mix.

Remember those of you saying Belichick would never do that, we discussed a plethora of things Belichick would never do that he did or tried to do. So yes, Belichick could start Mac Jones and cut Cam Newton. So instead of dealing in certainties, start dealing in probabilities. 

At the moment I'll say there's a 1 in 6 or 16% chance that this situation occures. Depending on how both quarterbacks look in the preseason, those odds could go up or down. What do you think, are these odds too high, just right, or too low to start with?

Monday, June 28, 2021

Cam Newton Stat Prediction.

If Cam Newton was to start for the Patriots, and play all 17 games, people are curious how much he would improve. So I decided to give my prediction on a Cam Newton season stats.

Through the air I think Newton will Throw 425 times. With the upgrades at tight end, he'll throw for 3000 yards. 16 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Again this is if Newton plays every game.

On the ground, although I think Newton is slow, I don't think he's as poor of a rusher as he is a passer. 145 carries seems reasonable seeing how he was used in 2020. With the strength of the tight ends and offensive line, I think he'll put up 650 yards. With the Upgrades at running back, I think Newton will get less option calls at the goal line. With that he'll put up 9 touchdowns on the ground.

Altogether, Newton will put up a combined total of 25 touchdowns and over 3600 hundred yards. The key to Newton's success will be if he can improve on his accuracy and if he can avoid turnovers both in the air and on the ground, he might be able to help the Patriots get into the playoffs. I don't have faith in him but that's why he bet on himself. To prove doubters wrong, right?

As for Big Mac, it's too soon to guess what he can do. He could put up Brady 2019 passing stats or his passing stats could be closer to that of any of the three Patriots 2020 quarterback stats. Honestly if he were to tie Brady in Career worsts, it still be better than Cam was in 2020 as a passer. We just don't know what he looks like on an NFL stage yet. His time will come soon enough.

Saturday, June 26, 2021

How Many Receivers Will The Patriots Carry?

I have written many times this season that I believe the Patriots are going to be running two, three, four, and due the H-backs possibly five tight end sets in 2021. This would mean the club needs to go heavy at tight end. This also means the Patriots will probably be thin somewhere.That somewhere I believe will be at wideout. Hear me out on this before you call me nuts. 

The Patriots have four guys that play the wideout position that are roster locks. Five if one counts Slater. Those guys are Agholor and Bourne whom the Patriots shelled out a lot of money for and aren't likely to cut.

Then there's all pro return man and slot receiver Gunner Olszewski and we know how much Belichick values special teams, plus he's said to becoming along strong as a slot guy. And there's Jakobi Meyers who many are projecting to be receiver one by season end. 

Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, and James White are respectable pass catchers in their own right, and are more productive than all the other pass catchers combined.

If the Patriots are having Henry, Jones, and possibly Asiasi on the field at the same time that limits how many backs and receivers can take the field. When the Patriots go heavy, although they have Johnson, if things go as expected; Keene can and should line up as the fullback on occasion with the back behind him, or he might even be the back with Johnson in front of him.

The Patriots are stacked at running back and the rest of the receivers really haven't done much. Outside the four mentioned above the rest of the Patriots haven't done much. 

Zuber is looking like he's gonna be this seasons' Zac Sudfeld or Maurice Harris. Shine in practice but not do much if anything in the regular season. If you blinked last season, you missed his play. That's how little he was used.

Harry lost weight and is trying to become the Patriots X receiver but he struggles in separation. Has sloppy footwork and hasn't done much over his career. I know he had Cam as his passer last year, so it should only count as half a season but still he hasn't shown the ability to use his wingspan to catch things in his bubble.

Then there's Devin Smith, a guy with a lot of potential and a former 2017 second round pick for the New York Jets, who just can't stay healthy long enough to contribute to any team. He's boom or bust, with heavy emphasis on bust.

The Patriots have a couple of other receivers including newly signed Devin Ross but after Bourne, Agholor, Gunner, and Meyers, the rest can be stored away on the practice squad. For when needed. Sure it's not traditional but neither is a base multiple tight end offense.

Now some might say what are you gonna do on third and long? Well most pass catchers run under a 5.0 forty anyways. That means most can run ten yards in 1.25 seconds. There were complaints a few years back that Brady was getting the ball out in under three seconds. Because Newton isn't a quick game quarterback, they'll have more time. 

And with the size of the tight ends, they'll create mismatches. So if the Patriots keep four, or even five tight ends there shouldn't be really any issues. On third down. I mean the Patriots are coached to where third and over ten yards is an issue. So the Patriots needing fifteen yards or more is rarely a thing. 

So yeah I do believe that there's a strong possibility of the Patriots going thin at wideout and stacked at tight end. I'd say there's a six in ten chance that it happens this season. Let's see what the Patriots do going forward.

Cam Should Have A Better Year Due To Upgrades But The Upgrades Should Drop In Producton Due To Newton.

In theory, Cam Newton should have a better season in 2021. He's on his second year in the system. He's had a full spring for the most part, minus time for his hand injury.  He'll get a full august program, and the Patriots signed four new pass catchers.

However, there's just as much of a chance that the new pass catchers suffer. Cam Newton threw a catchable pass 73.9% of the time. That's the same percentage as Herbert in L.A. , Tannehill threw a catchable pass 79.6% of the time. The three 49ers quarterbacks combined, threw a catchable pass 76.8% of the time. And Derek Carr threw a catchable pass 76.6 percent of the time. 

That means Jonnu Smith is going to receive 5.7% less catchable passes, Kendrick Bourne will have a drop of 2.9%, Agholor will see a drop of 2.7% on catchable passes. While Henry wont see a difference.

On top of that Pro football reference ranks Newton as the 25th best passer in the NFL for 2020. Herbert was ranked 4th, Tannehill was ranked 18th, Carr was ranked 14th. And while they had good catchable passes Mullens and Garoppolo were ranked 29th and 40th.

That means Henry's passer is declining 21 spots. Agholor's passer is declining 11 spots, Smith's passer is declining 7 spots, while Bourne improves 4 to 15 spots.

With that, while Newton should improve due to the new talent around him. The new guys should see a drop in production due to Newton's inability to deliver catchable passes. It's a double edged sword. The question is how much will Newton's ball placement hurt the individual pass catchers?

Friday, June 25, 2021

Goodbye One Shell, Hello Sales

According to Alex Barth, the NFL still has a ban on the use of older style helmets. I don't think many people have an issue with that.  Helmets have come a long way since CTE became a thing. The first case of CTE was diagnosed in Mike Webster, who played football for the Pittsburgh Steelers during their heyday.

In 2013 the NFL made the one shell rule in the name of players safety. I had always thought that the teams repainted helmets after each game. Guess I saw Rudy too many times because apparently that's not the case. This rule probably wouldn't of had so many against it if they did but apparently the process takes too long. And new helmets like shoes have a 'break in' period.

Supposedly, The league thought the switching of helmets made players less safe. Let's be real for a second. The league was worried about paying more in CTE settlements.

According to Paul Lukas, it was "the Head, Neck, and Spine Committee and the Player Safety Advisory Panel — that limited teams from switching helmets during the season." 

Lukas continued, "Advisory committees believe it’s safer, on balance, for a player to stick with one helmet for the entire season."

The CFL, the only thing the NFL has remotely close to a rival, would adopted the rule in 2019.

In 2017, the Philadelphia Eagles submit a rule change to the one shell rule, asking for teams to be allowed one alternative. The change obviously did not occur.

According to Barth, who quoted sources, starting in 2022 teams can have alternate helmets. For those that don't get it, it's so teams can wear different colored helmets.

So why would the NFL make the change now? The answer is money. Take the Patriots for example. They have had three logo's over their history (minor color changes don't count.) People love the Patriots second logo. And will pay good money for it. With different helmets normally comes different uniforms. When players wear multiple uniforms, sales go up.

Many teams have changed helmets and uniforms. Personally I miss the 1980s Seahawks, Buccaneers, Falcons helmets. In the grand scheme of things the only thing that will happen besides fans spending money, is new fans may get to see some older uniforms and experience their team's history.

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

The Patriots Offense Isn't Changing In 2021

Evan Lazar recently wrote in his email bag about OTAs and minicamp and basically said that they have to be taken with a grain of salt because the media cannot go home and review what they saw. This is something fans need to understand because first glances are often wrong.

In 2020, Cam Newton fans were up in arms about the club still running the "Brady" offense, while those who prioritized the name on the front, were up in arms that Cam wasn't a good enough passer to run the "Brady" offense.

Lazar was at the media practices this spring and depending on which side of the jersey you prioritize, will determine if what he said upsets you. Lazar wrote. "Based on the six spring practices open to the media, the roots of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’s passing system still haven’t changed since Tom Brady’s departure."

Lazar goes on to talk about how McDaniels is still trying to kill defenses with a 1000 paper cuts, so to speak. But the problem is Newton's not a good enough passer for that style offense. Lazar does go on to shower Newton with some praise before delivering a haymaker.

Lazar added, "But he (Newton) doesn’t operate efficiently in the quick game or a timing-based system, and the former MVP isn’t at his best throwing to horizontally moving targets with consistent accuracy."

Last August Lazar said Newton "isn't passer and isn't going to win passing competitions," and that "Newton is his best when he's scrambling around and throwing the ball over defenders' heads."

The Patriots are known for selecting players that fit their system, instead of adapting it to the players. The Patriots tried and for the most part failed to adapt Cam to their system. Lazar says they didn't make that mistake when it came to drafting their quarterback.

Lazar wrote, "Jones thrives in the quick-game, accurately threw crossers and in-breakers, and kept the offense on schedule with a fast release."

Like everyone who watched and talked about what they saw at the practices, Lazar does remind people that while he looked good for the most part, that Jones is a rookie and did make his share of mistakes.

Cam Newton unfortunately is the starter, at least until Belichick says otherwise. That's like using duct tape to patch a leaky boat. It might hold for a little bit but there's always going to be concern about how well and how long it can hold for. And it's the same with Newton.

Lazar also points out that it doesn't make sense for the Patriots to change their offense for Newton. Lazar wrote, "plus, should the Patriots shift their system towards a 32-year-old Newton, especially after selecting Jones in the first round?"

To those saying "It's only practice, Cam is the starter," and asking "what if he balls out?" Lazar isn't saying that Cam isn't going to have a better season from last year but from his comments one can logically infer that Cam will not be "balling out" in a Patriots uniform.

Now if Jones does beat out Newton at some point this season, Lazar does talk about how the Patriots can still use Newton for the rest of his 2021 contract.

Lazar wrote, "we’ve discussed a Newton package with Jones as the primary quarterback. If things break that way, it wouldn’t surprise me if Cam is still a factor as a short-yardage threat to run the football. He won’t play receiver, so not full Taysom Hill, but a specialized group of plays for short-yardage and goal-line work makes sense."

The only problem I can see with this is teams are going to stack the box and force Newton to throw. The Patriots upgraded the weapons but from everything I've read about the spring practices, Newton's arm or more importantly his accuracy hasn't improved. He's still a bubble thrower which could lead to getting his players hurt, incompletions, and turnovers.

What Lazar talks about however, might just be the best way to use Newton from the get go. Question is, does Belichick have the balls to go through with such an offense? He seems to be more of a traditionalist, and having a two quarterback system seems far fetched for him. 

What we do know is the Patriots are still running the "Brady" offense and the Patriots will be lucky if Newton can run the passing aspect as good as Hoyer, even though he has the stronger arm. Lord knows if the Patriots could combined Hoyer's mechanics & mind with Newton's athleticism, they'd have the perfect quarterback. But just like that will never happen, neither will Newton becoming an elite passer.

Analytics Are A Tool, And Not All Tools Can Be Used In Every Situation.

Analytics have their place in football and anyone who says otherwise is bullshitting someone. Although analytics have their place, they also have their limits. And thus, other factors have to be taken into account.

Take what Matt Dolloff wrote in his recent article. Dolloff wrote, "“I’d prefer good football players, good fundamentals, and good execution,” Belichick reportedly said, ostensibly as a response to advanced stats’ perceived impact (or lack thereof) on personnel decisions or game management."

Of course Belichick wants good players but look back a couple of years ago. Belichick brought in both Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. Both players were at the top of fewest negative yardage plays. Sure Belichick knew they were good players but don't think for a second that, that analytics didn't play a role in their signings.

Whether it's manipulating the rules, using analytics, roster building, statistics, or whatever; Belichick does whatever it takes to secure a victory. Sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn't. 

Belichick also said on analytics, “Well, I’m not saying it’s a gut thing. It’s an individual analysis based on the things that are pertinent to that game and that situation. I don’t really care what happened in 1973 and what those teams did or didn’t do, I don’t really think that matters in this game – or ’83 or ’90, you know, pick out whatever year you want. It’s not really my thing. And I like math, too, by the way. I really do. I like math.”

The Patriots take everything one game at a time, one play at a time. They never assume anything and practice once the season starts is all work. Hence the phrase 'do your job.' Never take any opponent for granted. Don't believe me ask the Falcons or anyone that was apart of the Oilers team in the early 90s that allowed Buffalo to go to the superbowl. Both teams blew big leads because they took the second half off.

Analytics may say that in both incidents the Falcons and Oilers were doing the right thing but in the NFL anything can happen on any given day. Just ask Glover Quin who batted down a hail Mary in the end zone like analytics say to do in 2010 as a member of the Texans, only for Mike Thomas to catch the ball and score giving the Jaguars the win. Had Quin of caught the ball and taken the touchdown, the game would've been over.  This is why Belichick doesn't rely on just analytics. 

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Why It Would Make Sense For Chicago To Pass On Brady.

Tom Brady was a free agent in 2020 and there apparently was a team that passed on him. That team is rumored to be the Chicago Bears. At first glance it's easy to say Brady was a better passer than what the Bears fielded in 2020. However, there is more than one style of quarterback and a pure passer may not of been what the Bears wanted.

In 2021 the Bears had a chance at a Tom Brady style quarterback and instead they opted for a quarterback more like Cam Newton. If they wanted a Brady style quarterback they would've taken Mac Jones a pure passer over Justin Fields.

As a Patriot fan, I know that Tom Brady and Cam Newton run two different offenses. I don't watch a lot of Chicago football but Trubisky and Foles are RPO quarterbacks. That's never been a Tom Brady speciality.

Some teams adapt their systems to their star players. Others adapt the players to their system. Which is why regardless of the reason, everyone knew Cam Newton wasn't going to work in 2020 because McDaniels ran the "Tom Brady" offense. The Bears may have been like McDaniels and unlike Bill Belichick with Newton, knew that Tom Brady wasn't a plug and play quarterback.

In the defense of teams that adapt players to their systems. It's easier to adapt one player to an existing system than it is to adapt 20-30 players to a new one. Teams go out and get scheme fit players all the time.

Now this is just speculation because Brady didn't reveal the team that had passed on him. However, if it is Chicago as percieved to be then it makes sense. Going off their recent draft history. Hell, I'm willing to bet Andy Dalton is more of an RPO quarterback than Brady is.

Brady is a quarterback that if things are not going his way, he let's it show. He was the most miserable 8 and 0 quarterback that any one had ever seen, in 2019. Why because the offense wasn't centered around his arm but instead the legs of Sony Michel and the offensive line. Brady would've been miserable when he couldn't run his style of offense.

Tampa Bay was the best fit for him. Whether Brady wants to admit it or not, Tampa was the best place for him to land from a player's stand point. Sure L.A. would've helped the TB12 brand but it wouldn't of done as much for Tom Brady the quarterback.

Monday, June 21, 2021

Newton's An Eleven Year Pro But How Much Football Experience & Knowledge Does He Really Have Operating A Patriots Style Offense?

Death by a thousand paper cuts is the Patriots offense when it comes to the passing game. They want to throw a gazillion quick passes and pick up yards after catch. Of the Patriots' quarterbacks, three of four seem to have some competence with their anticipation on these throws, the lone guy is Cam Newton, who prefers letting things develop down field instead.

The one thing we've heard from the media is that Bill Belichick prefers experience over everything else at the quarterback position but what does that mean exactly. It's situational awareness. It's the ability to read and recognize what the defense is doing both pre and post snap. It's the ability to make adjustments when needed.

Situational awareness is going to be hard for Jones to show in the preseason unless the games go specific ways that fall into the Patriots lap. The rest Jones should be able to show come August.

While Jones ended Patriots minicamp on a bad note, he was already showing the ability to make pre snap reads and adjustments. This is an area that Newton has struggled with and has yet to show improvement in. If Jones can continue to show that he can make reads and adjustments pre snap better than Newton, that will go a long way towards gaining on Newton's experience.

The Patriots are going to have to hope that the three preseason opponents put Jones in a situation to where he has to make post snap adjustments as well. If jones gets the opportunity and can show he can make these adjustments when needed, he will show his experience gives him enough understanding of football to start. 

Jones was said to be the most NFL ready quarterback in the 2021 draft but with the lowest ceiling of the top quarterbacks. That includes the number one overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. What was failed to be said is that certain locations can raise or lower the ceiling of players. Jones may or may not of had a low ceiling but he went to a system that is a perfect fit and is going to elevate his ceiling.

What it may come down to if things go right, is do the Patriots want a pure passer or an extra running threat on the field come week one. 

Because all I have heard is the opposite, I want to ask what it would mean for Mac Jones to beat Tom Brady week four? All we've heard about is how a loss would destroy his confidence but nobody talks about what a victory would do for Jones.

The thing is, this preseason Jones may have the chance to negate Cam Newton's experience over him and prove he should start over Newton. Even if Belichick goes with Cam out of spite because nobody tells him what to do except Robert Kraft. I mean extra development won't hurt Jones, even if means Newton hinders the Patriots passing game for a second straight season because of his subpar passing abilities.

Sunday, June 20, 2021

Newton Will Start Until Belichick Says Otherwise.

If I told you that for majority of OTAs and minicamp camp Cam Newton looked like crap, that he looked like the guy slinging the ball last year and then told you that he went 42 of 65 with an Interception (64.62%), and only had one good day, you'd be like he's done.

If I told you afterwards that for majority of OTAs and minicamp Mac Jones looked like a first round quarterback and was the best quarterback on the field, and then told you Jones went 57 of 87 with 4 interceptions (65.52%), you'd look at me like I was stupid.

However, without th telling you everything but the stats, these two quarterbacks look nearly Identical. What separates them is the stuff I left out. The drops by pass catchers and solid play by the defense, Understanding of the offense, ball placement, experience, and athleticism. Newton only has experience and athleticism over Mac and that's it, his ball placement is still bad.

Heading into the preseason at the moment, it should be neck and neck due to Jones's lack of experience. Jones appears to have a better understanding of the Patriots offense already, the ability to make presnap reads and adjustments, and he's shown better accuracy but he's still making rookie mistakes.

That's the window allowing Cam to stick around and his mobility for now will allow Newton to temporarily fend off Jones for the starting job. Depending on whether or not Belichick wants Jones to start is honestly the only thing that will determine if Jones starts this season because at some point Jones will beat out Cam for the Job.

Now there are people who are asking "what if Cam balls out?" To them I ask, What if Jones balls out in the preseason? Hell, what if Stidham and Hoyer ball out in the preseason? "Stidham and Hoyer aren't gonna ball," well neither is Cam. We're not gonna do what IFs.

Jones is a smart quarterback who has already shown better understanding of the offense than Newton. Once he gets enough experience from practice and the preseason, he will be able to run the offense better, even though he doesn't have Newton's running ability but his accuracy more than makes up for that.

For both Newton and Jones fans like it or not, Belichick decides when the torch is passed. What I'm saying is Jones already won, and is waiting on Bill to call it. Newton might finally look like a starting quarterback again due to the elite weapons elevating his game but the elite weapons are gonna look like they took a step backwards until Jones takes the field due to Newton hindering theirs. And we might not see Jones until 2022.

Friday, June 18, 2021

Folk vs Nordin looks to be a thing

2020 wasn't just the end of an era at quarterback for the Patriots, as they would see the Steven Gostkowski tenure come to an end as well. Gostkowski had surgery in 2019 and would only play part of the year.

In 2019 the Patriots would play three other kickers. Mike Nugent, Kia Forbath, and Nick Folk. Folk would win the job going 14 of 17 and get re-signed in 2020. 

In the Patriots would sign Roberto Aguayo to the practice squad incase Folk got injured or slipped up. They also drafted Justin Rohrwasser in the fifth round of the 2020 draft. Folk would go on to kick 90.9% of his kicks in 2020. And neither Rohrwasser or Aguayo was needed.

In 2021, the Patriots cut Rohrwasser and signed Quinn Nordin, undrafted kicker from Michigan. Throughout the spring training until it ended for the summer Nordin was booming kicks and Aguayo was doing nothing.

On Thursday June 17th, the Patriots cut Aguayo from their roster, freeing up room for signings. Thus ensuring a battle between Folk and Nordin in July when camp returns.

Over his short tenure with the Patriots, Folk has played in 23 games. Over that time, Folk has successfully kicked 88.9% of his field goals and 93.3% of his extra points.

Nordin the undrafted rookie was highly sought after by Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh coming out of high school and Belichick respects the opinions of the Harbaugh brothers. In 37 games for the Wolverines, Nordin only made 72.4% of his field goals. Nordin also has a long of 57 yards and his special teams coach Chris Partridge said, "To clarify, Nordin's longest field goal in practice was actually 66 or 67 yards."

Off hand it might make more sense just to hand Folk the job but stats don't tell everything. Nordin was the top kicker in the country heading into college, and if he's good enough for Jim Harbaugh to sleep at his house than Patriots special teams coach Cameron Achord should be able to coach Nordin's accuracy to where it was out of high school. 

Nordin being the only UDFA currently on the roster ups his chance of making the roster because Belichick normally carries one UDFA into the regular season. The battle between the two should make the preseason interesting to say the least.

One quick writer note. I've been telling people to watch for a long snapper battle between Wes Farnsworth and Joe Cardona. Cardona was on his seventh season so it made sense for Bill to challenge him. As of Thursday, Farnsworth has been released and the battle is over. 

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Don't Confuse Desperation With Desire

On March 25th of 2020,  the Carolina Panthers cut franchise quarterback Cam Newton. Newton was coming off back to back injury seasons. Ninety five days later it was clear nobody was interested in signing Cam Newton. And Bill Belichick gave Cam a low ball offer to continue his career. The contract was viewed as disrespectful by many and when the Patriots got cap space, many thought the Patriots would bump up Newton's pay. That didn't happen.

The Patriots would go 7-8 under Cam Newton. Newton would miss out on the week four game against the defending superbowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs and the league would prevent the Patriots from playing a game again until Newton was healthy, presumably to protect television ratings.

Over the 2020 season, Cam Newton threw only 8 touchdowns but threw 10 interceptions. Newton finishes 24th in yards and his 18th in completion percentage was due to how good his pass catchers actually were. It was visible on video and through analytics that his pass catchers got open.

Newton rushed for 12 touchdowns but the NFL is a what have you done with your arm lately type of league when it comes to quarterbacks. The league relies more on analytics than ever before. Newton had some bad analytical numbers for a quarterback. With some categories ranking in backup levels. 

On March 12th, 2021 days before free agency, there was reportedly little to no interest for Cam Newton around the league. Bill Belichick knowing this offered Cam Newton another low ball deal where Cam Newton accepted.
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There's a statement going around Patriots nation that Cam Newton wanted to be a Patriot. When he signed in 2020, did he really want to be a Patriot or did he want to play in the NFL? If Newton wanted to be a Patriot, why did he refer to it as a business trip in October of 2020?

In March of this year, did he want to play for the Patriots or play in the NFL? Newton could've held out for a more respectful deal from the Patriots and fielded offers but with the likelyhood of not getting an offer from another club, he ran the risk of making less money. Did Cam Newton want to play for the Patriots or did he take the best and most likely only offer he was going to get?

Cam Newton said in 2020 and repeated after he re-signed that he bet on himself. Once those words came out of his mouth, it wasn't desire to play with the Patriots that he had, if he ever had it. It was desperation to play with the Patriots because there wasn't another job offer coming for him and he knew it. Newton is looking to get paid and if he has one good season, he should get paid a decent salary.

Cam Newton is a Patriot and thus deserves respect from the fanbase to some degree, even if one doesn't like him. Especially compared to fan favorites who departed either for money or change of scenery but don't confuse the fact that he signed with the Patriots with wanting to play for the Patriots because people make sacrifices and do things they don't want to do all the time, to keep life styles they want. 

Newton's also smart enough to know what to say to keep from jeopardizing his career. He knows how to market himself. That's why his Patriots interviews fit the Patriots way.

I mean there are people who choose to shovel shit for a living, not because they enjoy it but because they like the lifestyle of having a roof over their heads and food in their stomach. Cam might be beyond having to worry about a roof over his head but he is still trying to provide a lifestyle for his family. And that is the difference between wanting to do something and needing to do something. 

Cam needed to sign with the Patriots to continue to prolong the lifestyle he wants for himself and his family, it's that simple. Could he want to play with the Patriots, it's possible but even if so given everything we know, it's only logical that it had little to no impact on him signing with the Patriots either time. After all playing for the Patriots at this point of his career is a "business triip."

Supercam Returns

Heading into the final day of minicamp and spring practice, the Patriots quarterbacks had put up some interesting numbers. The two young arms were looking like the best quarterbacks on the roster. Could they continue their performances and would Newton and Hoyer show improvement?

Let's recap the numbers going into day three.
Newton 25 of 44 with an Interception (56.82%), 
Jones 46 of 67 with 2 interceptions (68.65%),
Stidham 39 of 54 (72.22%),
Hoyer 22 of 34 with 1 interception (64.7%)

The secondary turned it up a notch for the final day of minicamp and even without Gilmore, they showed they were the best or one of the best units in the league. Dee Virgin would pick off Mac Jones, and someone final got one of Stiddy's passes.

Mark Daniels would tweet, "JC Jackson deflected a Newton pass while covering Gunner Olszewski. Kyle Dugger deflected a Newton pass in the end zone intended for Devin Asiasi."

Cam Newton would lead things and it would go in the order listed above. Newton finally apparently looked like a starter for the first time this spring, reportedly having his best day of the spring. Newton was said to be in command of the offense and performed like a starter. Although he had a high completion percentage on the day his accuracy reportedly still isn't where fans would like it but it was his control of the offense and decision making that shined on the day.

Mark Daniels tweeted, "Cam Newton had his best practice of the week and best we’ve seen this spring. He was the best QB on the field today. Newton was accurate and consistent. Good way to end minicamp for the veteran."

Mark wasn't the only one saying this was Cam's best day this spring. The media was a buzz with compliments for the veteran who had been struggling this far.

Jeff Howe tweeting, "Cam Newton won the final day of minicamp. He was 17 of 21 in competitive team drills, made good decisions and showed better accuracy than the past two practices."

Andy Hart of WEEI wrote, "Today, Newton was far more accurate, efficient and decisive than he’s been at other times this spring. His best throw of the day and maybe the spring came on an over-the-shoulder ball to James White down the right sideline, the pass dropped in perfectly past the tight coverage of Kyle Van Noy."

Henry McKenna wrote, "Newton didn’t exactly wow with a handful of big throws, but he was methodical in moving the ball..."

Evan Lazar of CLNS wrote, "From this vantage point, the competition in training camp between Newton and Jones will still be very real, but Newton remains the frontrunner to start in Week 1."

Before I go on to the rest of the quarterbacks, one thing I've noticed from last year to this year is when Newton's down, everyone knows it and it has to bring the mood down for the entire team. Newton's been said to wear his emotions on his sleeve. Today he was chest bumping Stidham but yesterday he was a shell of himself. Leaders have to show confidence even when things are going bad.

Kyle Love last season said Newton wasn't yelled at in Carolina, and after Newton being a part of the Patriots for almost a full year, I have to say I believe him now. Newton to me is a fragile leader and I believe that's why Belichick shower's him with praise. The thing I now wonder as we head into camp from Newton is can he mentally handle losing his job in the preseason or during the middle of the season.

Mac Jones was reportedly frustrated with himself for his performance. Having his worst day of the spring. With writers noting that Jones was beating his fists on the ground after turning the ball over. Hoyer and others reportedly tried to calm the young quarterback and to get his head back into the game and off his mistakes. Jones showed today that as good as he's been, he's still a rookie with room for development.

Zack Cox wrote, "Jones delivered some nice throws early — his thread-the-needle touchdown pass to Devin Asiasi in 7-on-7s was a standout play — but closed out the spring on a sour note."

Jeff Howe tweeting, "Mac Jones was 11 of 20 (3 drops and a def hold hurt him) with an INT on his final pass."

Andy Hart wrote, "The No. 15 pick seemed to struggle with his protection calls, reads and ability to run the offense. At times he was forced by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to return to the huddle to run plays over."

Lazar would write, " wasn't all bad for Jones, though, who opened team drills with a laser into a tight window during red-zone work to Kristian Wilkerson" for a touchdown.

Jones is going to make mistakes and it was today that showed how fragile young players confidence is. The Patriots may opt to go with Cam or even Stidham until Jones has enough NFL experience to start. Jones may not start a game in 2021 but with how he's performing, he should be the starter by next offseason at the latest. 

Stidham apparently had another good camp and was paired with Newton for part of the day. The third year quarterback was reportedly owning the two minute drills and was solid on third downs and in the redzone. Stidham has put together a solid spring and while he might not be on the radar to start for the Patriots, he's showing that he might be an solid back up option. Will have to see if he can continue the rest of the summer.

Zack Cox of NESN wrote, "Stidham got an extended look at the end of practice and generally looked sharp, though he did throw an interception to cornerback Justin Bethel on a pass intended for wideout Marvin Hall."

Patriots writer Paul Perillo wrote, "Stidham showed great touch a on deep crossing route toward the left sideline, hitting Devin Ross in stride for a big gain."

Henry McKenna of Patriots wire wrote, "Stidham was probably the most consistent passer in minicamp, with Jones and Newton experiencing higher highs and lower lows..."

Lazar would go on to write, "Getting a read on Stidham is difficult. Outside of Hoyer, he’s arguably the most comfortable quarterback in the system heading into year three. But it’s also crystal clear that Newton and Jones are the Patriots’ guys, with Stidham as the #3."

Stidham also reportedly found Tre Nixon at one point. The third year quarterback isn't going down without a fight. He's showing he has an understanding of the Patriots offense and giving reason to why the Patriots should keep him as a long term backup and potentially helping his trade value.

Hoyer got to enjoy a couple of reps from the redzone but was more there to help out with Jones. Hoyer was brought into mentor Jones and the other quarterbacks. While Hoyer might be kept on to continue his mentorship, his usage suggests that he may be cut come September.

The quarterbacks would finish on the day
Newton: 17-for-21 (14-for-17 in 11-on-11s) several near interceptions 
Jones: 11-for-20 (10-for-19) 2 interceptions 
Stidham: 10-for-14 (9-for-12) 1 interception 
Hoyer: 2-for-3 (2-for-3)

This made their numbers for the spring
Newton 42 of 65 with an Interception (64.62%), 
Jones 57 of 87 with 4 interceptions (65.52%),
Stidham 49 of 68 (72.05%) with an interception,
Hoyer 24 of 37 with 1 interception (64.86%)

Meyers and Olszewski have been having a solid spring and minicamp. Should be interesting as while Meyers is being projected as the future number one, this is the second offseason that Gunner has also shined and been ignored. Agholor was limited on day three of minicamp and Zuber had an up and down day.

Something strange happened on special teams. Strange enough that Andy Hart would write about it.

Hart wrote, "In nearly two decades observing practices and workouts, long snapper Wes Farnsworth and undrafted kicker Quinn Nordin provided a first on Wednesday. The duo had a measuring tape on the field early in practice and were using it to seemingly measure the distance between the line of scrimmage and the spot for the PAT/field goal. Nordin, who also discussed the difference in circumference between a college football and the NFL ball, appears to bring a new level of measured precision to the kicking game. If he’s that precise on his kicks, he could be a keeper."

Hart would also add, "Nick Folk had a pretty ugly, short attempt on one of the kicks when he simply didn’t appear to hit the ball very well. He was much better on an ensuing attempt."

While all eyes are on the quarterbacks, the receivers and kickers to serve as a reminder that the quarterbacks aren't the only position battle taking place when the Patriots return to camp in late July. The surprise battle is going to be at long snapper when the team returns. Keep an eye on Farnsworth and Cardona.

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

The Patriots Year Of No Excuses Is Full Of Excuses.

This was supposed to be the year of no excuses for the Patriots, for Cam Newton. That was short lived though. As the excuse train picked up and started rolling the second the media was allowed to watch the Patriots practice.

The one consistent thing since camp started this spring is 'it's just practice, it doesn't matter.' That's great but the team has two mantras. 'Do your job's and 'no days off.' If a player isn't putting in the effort, Bill has no problem putting in someone else.

Then it was 'they're still learning chemistry. Bourne, Agholor, and Henry are all new. It takes time to develop chemistry and get on the same page. You can't count these practices.' Since Smith didn't report immediately, that's only three guys. The other pass catchers weren't new.

It would then jump to  well Cam only had a short practice due to his hand injury. If he was having full practice, he would've had a better performance.'

That would change to 'Cam didn't practice, so of course the others are gonna look better than him. If he was practicing along side them it would be different.'

Day one of minicamp it was 'he (Cam) has a bone bruise. It's bothering him. Bet you couldn't grip a ball and throw it with that injury. Plus it was raining.'

Day one comments would get added to 'he was told to over throw his pass catchers. We don't know if those were really bad passes or if he was doing as instructed," on day two.

All of these excuses are being mixed with it's just practice it doesn't matter. With a few people saying 'wait till training camp starts in July.' 

To all of these I ask, weren't y'all the ones who were complaining that 'Cam didn't have a full offseason? Now that he's getting a full offseason,' y'all really gonna say the first part that Cam missed last year doesn't matter because it's practice? 

If you truly believe that, then all Cam Newton missed was the preseason games during 2020. Now before any of you start spewing that 'it's just the preseason, it doesn't count." If that comes out your mouth to defend Newton in the preseason, every reason y'all have to defend him loses credibility.

Slowly but surely the Newton fanbase has been discrediting their own excuses for his bad play in 2020. So come week one, I will expect the only excuse they cannot flip flop on will be covid.

Something that made me laugh today is an acquaintance known as McHomer, seemed to be justifying Cam's bad play by saying " They're only showing Cam's bad passes while showing Jones's good ones."  I might not have it exactly word for word but that's what she said. 

Now while Jones did throw two interceptions on day two of minicamp, that doesn't negate Newton's bad play. He's around 56% completion percentage for the spring. His mechanics and accuracy/ball placement have not changed. 

At 32, they're not gonna improve much if any. In fact, what history tells us is they're only gonna get worse. If Max Kellerman had come out midway through last season and said "Cam Newton is going to fall off a cliff in short order," half the fan base and most football fans probably wouldn't of clamped back the way they did for Brady because it would've been believable at that point last year.

Not gonna write positive articles for the sake of staying positive.

I started using blogger to write back in 2019. Prior to that I had a page on Facebook that I would write blogs on. My orginal page was a mess and I got tired of trolls.

Since I started writing on blogger, I have been told on multiple occasions that I am too negative. That I should be more like other writers or media personalities and focus on the positive.

I am sorry, if the Patriots are having areas where players are performing poorly, I am not gonna write a piece and talk about how great the long snapper, punter, and gunners are. That's not me.

I got criticized in 2019 for calling out Brady and McDaniels. Same thing happened in 2020 when I called out Newton. I have gotten used to it. I have friends that are also content creators. They're called homers and one is even called Mchomer. 

For the most part, they try to spin a positive on everything and ignore the negative. It works for them and their audience loves it. However, that is not me. Sometimes I agree with the Patriots fan base, while a lot of the time I am seemingly at odds. 

I said Gronkowski was gonna get traded. I became a Stidham fan boy, while everyone hoped on the Newton bandwagon. I stayed on the Mac Jones train, while everyone had jumped to the Justin Fields-Trey Lance bandwagon. Hell, I even supported Steve Belichick for defensive coordinator while everyone said it had to be Mayo. Currently I believe Farnsworth could beat out Cardona and for my fellow Blue Jays fans, I like Vlad Jr but don't think he's playing up to the Hall of Fame levels he's being hyped to.

I am not always going to agree with my fanbase. I am not gonna tell everyone what they want to hear. I am going to do my best to call out all of the sports teams I like when I can, although football is the sport I am most knowledgeable about. I will do my best to also give praise when do. I appreciate those who stick bye me and to those who want me to change and become more team / fan friendly, it's not gonna happen.

Patriots Young Arms Are Looking The Best Thus Far With One Minicamp Day Left.

Heading into day two of minicamp, everyone is still watching the Patriots quarterback situation, trying to figure out if Cam Newton can be dethroned as the Patriots starter. Prior to Tuesday, the Patriots quarterback off season numbers went as follows, Newton is 16-of-27 (59.3 percent). Jones is 29-of-42 (69 percent). Stidham is 34-of-46 (73.9 percent), and Brian Hoyer is 22-of-34 (64.7 percent) with an interception."

So how would the quarterbacks look on day two of minicamp? That was the million dollar question and now that the day is done, we have our answers.

A little after 1pm Evan Lazar tweeted, "Shaky day for Cam Newton once again, who was 9-of-17 in team drills. Couple overthrows and missed Nelson Agholor badly on a comeback route along the sideline."

Lazar would later write, "We can caveat everything with it’s too early to tell in a non-padded practice, but Newton’s accuracy and timing in the offense just aren’t where they need to be, especially with a first-round pick now on the roster. It’ll be interesting to see where things stand in Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels’ minds come training camp."

One of the problems from Cam Newton is consistency. And it would appear that Newton is still struggling to find that as the media watched. 

Phil Perry tweeted, "During Newton’s next chance behind center, he launched three passes deep. First almost picked by Jalen Mills. Second overthrown. Third overthrown and picked by Kyle Dugger. He then completed his next three attempts."

Incase anyone thinks Perry is seeing things and hating on Cam Newton, Mark Daniels tweeted, "Cam Newton had a rough day. Intercepted once, but should’ve been twice. Not much working downfield. Some accuracy issues today."

Cam apparently was in low spirits, reluctantly walking to his drills as the day progressed. This was not the kinda of day the guy known for koolaid smiles, dancing, and nicknames wanted to have. Cam's known for his presence lifting the team, so one must wonder how moods like this impact the team's moral.

Zack Cox, Nesn's other reporter tweeted, "Big storyline from today was the sizable increase in reps Mac Jones saw. Cam Newton continued to lead off, but Jones attempted the most passes in team drills.

QB stats:
Jones: 17 of 25 (9 of 13 in 11s) 2 interceptions
Newton: 9 of 17 (5 of 9), 1 interception 
Stidham: 5 of 8 (3 of 5)
Hoyer: none"

Now Jones wasn't without his flaws but he was still reportedly the best quarterback of the day. With some speculation that the Patriots are going to try to force the issue of a competition between the two. Day three should be interesting.

Chris Mason tweeted, "Mac Jones was the best QB (again) but struggled a bit during the final competitive team period (2 INTs). It happens as a rookie first-rounder at minicamp.

Jones still clearly outplayed Newton, who couldn’t get much going all afternoon, and Stidham, who didn’t see many reps."

Zack Cox wrote about Jones's two interceptions, "On the first, he tried to float a pass to tight end Dalton Keene but found a leaping Dont’a Hightower instead. The second was tipped at the line and picked off by Kyle Van Noy. Those plays drew loud roars from the Patriots’ defense."

Lazar would write about Jones, "Jones’s best throw came on a purposely low completion to Nelson Agholor. J.C. Jackson had tight coverage on Agholor, who ran a comeback route along the sideline, and Jones threw it low and away from Jackson to give Agholor a clean chance."

Andy Hart of WEEI chimed in writing, "Overall on the day Jones was generally accurate and efficient in his chances, getting the ball out on a timely basis far more often than not and more often than Newton in the shorts-and-t-shirts action. That’s not to say there weren’t mistakes or negative plays for Jones."

Now Stidham wasn't talked about a lot but he still had a good day reportedly, hitting Olszewski, Nixon, and Agholor. With Lazar writing, "QB Jarrett Stidham is the King of 7-on-7 Drills." Lazar would basically go on to say Stidham has been the best in 7 on 7 drills.

Tomorrow should be the last day of training before the Patriots break for camp in July. Newton needs to end minicamp on a high note. The question is will Jones and Stidham continue their good performance with another solid day on Wednesday? After day two, Hoyer has to be the biggest loser, not recording a single pass on the day. 

The numbers this offseason going into day three of Minicamp are:
Newton 25 of 44 with an Interception (56.82%), 
Jones 46 of 67 with 2 interceptions (68.65%),
Stidham 39 of 54 (72.22%),
Hoyer 22 of 34 with 1 interception (64.7%)

Hoyer and Newton appear trending in the wrong direction, stay tuned to see if that changes on day three. If one didn't know better, just looking at the numbers this spring, one would assume the competition was between Stidham and Jones. In the NFL anything is possible because nothing stays the same for long. Could this become a battle between the young guns come late August?

All Eyes On The Quarterbacks During Day One Of Minicamp

Anyone who's paid attention to the Patriots over the last decade knows that the quarterback is mainly all anyone cares about. Ten years ago it was all "who's gonna be Brady's hier?" Last year, it was "who's gonna be replace Brady?" This year, it's "who's gonna start at quarterback?" And with that, I'm gonna see what I can find out about the Patriots' quarterbacks.

Now before I continue, this isn't to say people don't care about the rest of the team, it's just as fans, we care about the quarterback position above everything else. Not a surprise, as modern fans care more about the offense than the defense.

It was rainy and drops appeared to be a problem for the pass catchers. Here's how Henry McKenna scored the day, "- In competitive team drills: Newton 12/20, Jones 13/20, Stidham 8/15, Hoyer 2/6, INT."

During the rain, Cam Newton was apparently erratic with his throws. Looking more like the Cam fans came to know in 2020, especially from a mechanics standpoint. At this point he's not being asked to run but the problem has never been with his legs, it's with his arm. That's the thing that people for get about with quarterbacks and it's what makes him different from a running back. However, he needs to show he can throw with accuracy better than the running backs on the roster.

Here's some thoughts on Cam:

Phil Perry of NBC writing, Cam "struggled with his accuracy at times throughout the session." "It's fair to wonder if Newton's mechanics and level of accuracy simply are what they are. Though Mac Jones did not have an immaculate day of practice -- understanding the Patriots are one day into a three-day mandatory minicamp -- it's also fair to wonder how long the quarterback job in New England will be Newton's if there are more days like Monday."

Ryan Hannable of WEEI wrote about Newton, "Had a number of overthrows, which included in both 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 work, as well as goal-line throws."

Karl Thompson of the Boston Globe wrote, "He threw the ball with good velocity despite the rain, though he at times struggled to find his touch and sailed a few balls near the red zone. He also couldn’t connect with the speedy Nelson Agholor on his three attempts at deep throws, overthrowing two of them while Agholor dropped the third in tight coverage."

Greg Bedard wrote about Newton, "Newton's hand was not an issue. But he was still inaccurate on some throws as usual. Even on-air reps in the end zone, his ball was very flat and without much touch." "Newton threw one pass to Kristian Wilkerson what was awful ... typical of last season, he geared up, dipped his shoulders too much, and threw it into the turf."

Evan Lazar of CLNS wrote, "Evaluating Newton’s lower-body mechanics and footwork would be premature. His timing is improving in the offense, but his throwing motion is still the old Cam."

Mac Jones had a good day, opening up his offense finally but is still looking like a rookie. Mike Reiss said he looked "dialed in," and Mike Giardi said he had a, "solid day, good command." There were a lot of positives about said about Jones, from his pre snap reads to his deep ball. The two main take aways from the day was he's showing improvement and he's looking like the best quarterback on the field. If he can continue to be the best quarterback on the field, Newton won't be the front runner come week one.

Here's what was said about Big Mac:

Alex Barth of 98.5 the hub and CLNS media wrote about Jones saying, "Jones’ improved confidence is clear as well, and he’s starting to throw the ball more downfield in team drills. One such throw stood out on Monday, when he hit Devin Asiasi (who has had a nice few weeks himself) on a contested back-shoulder route about 15-20 yards up the seam."

Hannable wrote about Jones, "he is showing signs of progress when it comes to being comfortable with the offense and taking more chances with throws down the field."

Thompson wrote about Jones, "Jones’s accuracy remained solid in the rainy conditions even as other quarterbacks appeared to struggle and sail throws, though he also missed one or two in drills and had one batted at the line of scrimmage in 11-on-11s."

Bedard wrote about Jones, "Thought Jones was the best of all the quarterbacks easily. He pushed the ball down the field more and his pocket movement really stood out. He stepped up numerous times against pressure and delivered strikes down the field. That shows progress. He struggled against pressure a few weeks ago."

Evan Lazar wrote, "Those are the types of downfield throws that Jones wasn’t necessarily making during OTAs, but as he becomes more decisive, the rookie is showing signs of improvement."

Stidham also opened up his game and is doing enough to have his name thrown in with the previous two quarterbacks, with Doug Kyed writing about Stidham "(he's) most consistently solid option so far." The thing with Stidham is his decision making. He looks good in practice but he apparently takes too long to make his decisions. However when he's rushed, his decisions making goes out the window. The NFL game maybe too fast for him.

Here's some quotes  on Stiddy:

Barth wrote about Stidham, "He opened things up a bit more today than the last time we saw him, including a deep pass to Nelson Agholor that he landed right in the bread basket - only for Agholor to drop it (there were a number of drops on Monday due to the rain)."

Mike Giardi tweeted, "Best throw of the day came from Jarrett Stidham during a 7-on-7 period late in practice. A deep shot down the sideline to Nelson Agholor. Unfortunately, the speedy wideout dropped it and then punted the ball into an opposite field."

Hannable also wrote that the best throw came from Stidham but says it was from a different drill writing, "The speedy receiver ran a go-route up the left side in 11-on-11 work and Stidham threw a very nice ball roughy 40 yards downfield, but it fell off his fingertips"

Brian Mazique of the Heavy wrote about Stidham, "Unfortunately, he is stuck in an indeterminate state somewhere between rookie Mac Jones and veteran Brian Hoyer, but definitely behind Cam Newton"?

And Ian Logue summed Stidham up, "Stidham remains as a piece that Belichick will need to add value to because his long-term future with the team has clearly changed drastically compared to last offseason.  Building him up and recovering a draft choice certainly makes the most sense and barring major changes, that will probably be what eventually happens"

Hoyer appears to be feeling the pressure abandoning his safe intelligent conservative style for a more gun slinger approach. Hoyer had suitors this offseason but choose to stay around to resign with the Patriots. Hoyer has the most knowledge of any of the quarterbacks but lacks the physical gifts of the other three players on the roster to be able to take advantage of what's in his head.

Here's a quote about Hoyer. Note, not much was said about the veteran on the day, and all most every quote was different way to say this:

Phil Perry wrote, "On one of the few reps Brian Hoyer had in team (offense v. defense) periods today resulted in an interception by Kyle Van Noy."

Hoyer was asked about coaching Mac Jones and said, ""I mean I'm not the quarterback coach so that's not really my responsibility."

Hoyer would later say when it comes to answering the others questions, "that's my responsibility, being the most experienced quarterback in that room is to kind of share that wealth of knowledge and then go from there."

From Hoyer's comments, to the dismay of many Patriots fans, the guy still wants to put the pads on and play. And the talk of him being a coach may actually push him away from the position.

Doug Kyed of NESN wrote, "So far, if there is a battle, it’s been tight between the four quarterbacks through four open OTAs and minicamp sessions. Newton is 16-of-27 (59.3 percent) in somewhat limited team reps. He missed one practice and stopped throwing early in another session because of a hand injury. Jones is 29-of-42 (69 percent) while alternating between No. 2 and No. 3 QB duties and relying on check downs. Stidham is 34-of-46 (73.9 percent) and has probably been the Patriots’ most consistently solid option so far this spring. Veteran Brian Hoyer is 22-of-34 (64.7 percent) with an interception."

The quarterbacks will be in the spotlight the rest of the off and preseason. Other camp battles will take a back seat, so guys like Wes Farnsworth will battle Joe Cardona without pressure from the media.

As for the rest, Meyers is still looking like the Patriots number one and Van Noy hasn't missed a beat, while Harry, Gunner and Nordic, are apparently continuing to give coaches something to think about.

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Hoyer And Stidham Are Already In Full Competition Against Each Other.

In 2019 Jarrett Stidham beat out Brian Hoyer to become Tom Brady's backup. Hoyer was cut and sent packing to Indianapolis. And in 2020, even though many people think Belichick's incapable of doing such things, Stidham was demoted to third string to start the season for events concerning his injury last August. And Brian Hoyer was given the second string job until after week four.

Thus far it appears Hoyer and Stidham are battling it out for the number three spot on the roster. Stidham is younger with potential for development but Hoyer comes with a bag of experience and is one of the largest reasons the Patriots won superbowl 53.

During the first OTAs with the media, Mac Jones was supposed to be the best quarterback on the field but Hoyer was said to of made the best throw of that week with a deep pass to Agholor. The second OTAs with media Stidham was the best quarterback on the field and now at the third OTAs with media, it's was reportedly Hoyer. It's Cam's turn next but he's supposedly injured. 

Now before I continue, I have to get this off my chest. There are Cam Newton fans that are saying it's just practice, and that it doesn't matter. And to them I ask, weren't you complaining that Newton didn't have an offseason and that was partially why he had a bad season? Either these practices matter or it wasn't a reason for Newton's poor play last season. You can't have it both ways.

Last week Stidham went 13 of 14 with his only incompletion being a drop. On day three Stidham did hit a 45 yarder to wilkerson. And threaded the needle to Meyers for a completion. He also showed connection with Asiasi and Fumagalli. Stidham would go 11 of 14 and lead first team reps during 11 on 11s. While Stidham's not making a lot of big throws, he's reportedly showing good deception on play fakes. This was a second good showing from Stidham. Can he keep it going? 

On day three Hoyer turned it up a notch abandoning the safe throws with a couple of deep balls. Hoyer hit Asiasi on a 45 yarder and then hit Zuber on a 55 yarder. He also showed he can get the ball into tight spots with accuracy. Hoyer was also reportedly showing a good connection with Bourne, Olszewski, and Gaffney. Hoyer would go 11 of 13 on Thursday, a better showing than he had last week where he went 7 of 13. 

Andy Hart of WEEI wrote, Hoyer "clearly made the quickest reads and threw with the most accuracy and precision...", Hart was talking between all three quarterbacks in the day. 

Evan Lazar wrote about Hoyer at the third media OTAs, "If Jones or Stidham were making these throws, the hype train would be humming."

Bernd Buchmasser of Pats Palpit wrote about Hoyer after the third media practice, "Looking good in practice is nothing new for Hoyer. He did the same during last summer’s training camp and was particularly effective on deep attempts."

If there was a preseason in 2020, could Hoyer of won the starting job away from Cam? It's not out of the realm of possibility but then again, Hoyer could've played like he did versus the Chiefs.

Hart also wrote, "Stidham took the first reps in most drills and segments of practice and didn’t make any egregious mistakes..."

Evan Lazar wrote, "He is showing an improved confidence level compared to what we saw in camp the previous two seasons and tried energizing his teammates on a few occasions." 

Last week, Mike Reiss wrote about Stidham, "Jarrett Stidham sends reminder he's still a factor in Patriots' QB picture"

And Henry McKenna of Patriots Wire wrote last week about Stidham, "he showed a competence that was above Jones — and probably above Hoyer, too." 

That's really important because the Stidham needs to sell himself not only to the team but to the league. He missed out on valuable training time last year and now is on the verge of being gone from the league.

Over the last two practices Stidham is 24 of 28 and Hoyer is 18 of 26. Only the numbers of the 7 on 7 drills were released from the first media practice. Because they only threw like three passes each during that drill and the 11 on 11 numbers weren't included, I chose not to add them.

***Update: Stidham is 34-of-46 (73.9 percent) and Hoyer is 22-of-34 (64.7 percent) with an interception.***

If there was a real camp and preseason last August, I do not know if Cam beats out either quarterback. Cam's the better athlete but he's not the better passer. This offseason, Jones should be the best pure passer. We'll see how that goes.

While Cam misses out on practice due to injury, the Patriots get to give Stidham and Jones extra time and attention. Don't worry though, while Newton's missing practices he does benefit.

During the first practice with the bucket, 7 on 7, and 11 on 11 drills, Newton was said to look the same as last year. If what was said about him looking the same from all the drills is true, Cam is sheltered from the media and fan base while injured. Thus avoiding criticism if he doesn't show improvement.

***Update: Newton did return for minicamp. His numbers for the preseason are 16-of-27 (59.3 percent), worse than all the other quarterbacks***

While at the moment Stidham and Hoyer don't have a chance of dethroning Newton, they are giving the Patriots something to think about when it comes to who's behind Jones. If Belichick truly wants to sit and develop Jones for a season, this could actually be a battle for the number two spot on the depth chart in front of our eyes.

With Stidham getting the extra reps last week and starting off drills this week, it would appear as if they want him to beat out Hoyer for a roster spot. 

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

Is Chris Simms Right About Cam Newton?

Chris Simms recently ranked Cam Newton as the 20th best quarterback in the NFL. This was after the Patriots finished ranked 31st in attempts, 30th in yards, and 32 in touchdown passes. The Patriots were 30th in first downs and 17th in third down conversion with a 40.9%. On the ground, the Patriots had the 4th best rushing attack and were third best at rushing for a first down.

As a passer pro football reference ranked Newton the 25th best passer in the nfl.  Newton finished 25th in attempts. 24th in yards, 34th in touchdown passes. Throwing a touchdown 2.2% of his passes. Newton finished 18th in interceptions, throwing one 2.7% of his attempts.

Newton was 35th in money throws, 20th in danger plays, 17th in interceptable passes. He was 32nd in accuracy rating, 28th in true competition percentage with a 71.2%. Newton ranked 35th in catchable passes 73.9% and was ranked 19th in clean pocket percentage with a 74.3%.

According to player profiler Newton finished 30th in both true passer rating and QBR, finishing with a 77.3 and a 47.4. Before anyone says who did he have to throw to, his pass catchers were ranked third in target separation. And according to pro football reference only 4.2% (15) of Newton's passes were dropped and 19.7% or 70 of his 368 attempts were bad throws.

Simms says, "Cam Newton still has got one of the greatest presence of all quarterbacks on the NFL field. He’s a great leader, he’s a great worker. ... You have to get over the passing numbers at times, and I understand work needs to be done. He’s one of the best running quarterbacks in football still, and his skillset running the football is one of the things that made that not-very-talented offense somewhat of a threat in certain weeks and it certainly made them one of the best running offenses in football.”

According to pro football reference on the ground Cam Newton finished the 36 best rusher in the league with 592 yards. His 4.3 yards per carry was good enough to place tied for the 32nd best rusher. Newton's 54 rushing first downs was good enough for 11 place of all rushers. Newton also rushed for 12 touchdowns which was 6th among all ball carriers.

Simms is right and wrong. Newton has always been known as a rushing quarterback so his rushing ability can sometimes be under appreciated by fans and the media. Newton would be a solid number two back on any team. However, his rushing abilities can also be over valued and are often used as a defense for his flaws as a passer. 

Simms continues, “Cam Newton is still one of the 20 best quarterbacks in football for my money. It’s not about the quarterback stats all the time, it’s the effect you have on the football game. He’s a little bit of a force of nature that way and I think that sometimes gets swept under the rug. ..."

Simms might be right about Newton's ranking as a quarterback, I have Newton ranked as the 27th best passer in the nfl and pro football reference had him at 25th but even Simms admits he's slipped, as he dropped him from 10th to 20th position on his list. Which shows Newton is trending downwards even if he has a good season in 2021.

There are guys who wanted to play for Newton in 2021 even after the year he had. There are players, fans, and people in the media who refuse to believe Cam is the quarterback they saw in 2020. Newton is being given the chance in 2021 to prove his supporters right, for if he fails, his career could be over with.

For the Patriots to be successful in 2021, Newton needs to improve 5 - 8 spots as a passer and be closer to the passer the Patriots had in 2019. Instead of the jokes the Patriots fielded in 2020.

Simms also ranked Mac Jones the 30th best quarterback in the league but I think he under ranked him due to scheme. Regardless of what I think, if Simms is right, that puts him already better than three of the starting quarterbacks in the league. And we know Jones is going to improve with development.

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

Patriots Receiving Core Needs To Emerge From Edelman's Shadow Early.

Since 2009 Julian Edelman has been the guy in the Patriots receiving. Over that span, he has played in 137 regular season.games and was even named the mvp of superbowl 53. Edelman became the security for the Patriots, even with all the injuries. However, Edelman was cut and retired this offseason which changes things for the offense.

Over the course of the past few years, Edelman had started having an issue with drops. The drop in the fourth quarter versus the defending superbowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020 that led to a pick six and put the game out of reach when the Patriots appeared on the verge of a comeback, was probably the biggest drop of recent memory.

Even with the drops, there were fans wondering how different the season could've gone if Edelman was on the field. Why? Because when the Patriots needed to move the chains or make a play, Edelman could normally be counted on and fans got used to it.

In 2018 Edelman was targeted 108 times, catching 74 passes. 63 of those were for a first down. In 2019 he was targeted 153 times, with 54 of his 100 receptions going for a first down. In 2020 he was targeted 39 times catching 21 passes with 18 going for a first down. Edelman was targeted 24.83, 24.95 percent over Brady's last two years. 
And 19.21 percent during his six games in 2020.

What I'm getting at is if the Patriots receivers don't show up early on third down this season, the fan base is going to let them know. Even with Meyers showing a lot of potential, there are going to be plenty of 'Edelman would've made that catch' comments. 

If the passing game isn't working, people will blame Belichick for letting Edelman retire, and of course for not acquiring Julio. They will be screaming on social media for Jules to come back. The fan base did a number on Cyrus Jones's confidence, so they can get to the Patriots receivers. 

Now I do believe Edelman could return if needed in December but I won't hold my breath. The question is are the receivers ready for the backlash if things don't go right, is their skin thick enough? And is the fan base ready for that negativity if things start bad?

Monday, June 7, 2021

The Patriots Didn't Get Julio And That's A Good Thing.

The Patriots went stupid in the 2021 offseason spending a boatload of money on free agents. This comes a year after they had no money before getting saved by opt outs. The Patriots won't have another season like this for a while unless they start consistently hitting on the draft, and they don't want to enter the offseason like they did last year ever again. 

Currently the Patriots have $15 million in cap remaining. Sure the club could spend it all on one or two big names along with some draft picks to get them but what happens if an injury occurs. On top of that what happens when salaries go up next season? 

There's no guarantee on how much if any the salary cap will increase. The team cannot afford continuously cut or move players. And not every player is going to be willing to let their money get played with. 

Now I get that there are fans that are win now at any cost and deal with next year when it comes. While I get that there are fans like that, I don't get that mentality. Sacrificing draft picks and every cent of cap space on trades and free agents is bad for business. It's bad for the team.

Robert Kraft stressed this during the offseason, the smartest way for the team to build is through the draft. That means spending more money on scouts and less money on free agents. Like it or not, the smartest thing for the Patriots to do, is to sit on the money unless someone gets cut and falls into their laps at the right price. Well with exception of signing udfa center Taaga Tuulima out of Hawaii.

Saturday, June 5, 2021

We're told Newton injured his throwing hand.

Cam Newton reportedly injured his throwing hand on Friday during the OTAs. After reading almost every article on the subject, nobody really knows how it happened, it's just speculatory. 

Early reports are coming out that it's a bone bruise and that Newton could be out until the team meets in July. With Newton trying to fix his mechanics, that would be detrimental to him as Newton is trying to fight off Mac Jones and hang on to the starting spot.

Something strange about this is what Mike Reiss reported on Friday. Reiss said, "source close to the situation told ESPN it is not serious and that the veteran QB is 'all good.' "

Which is basically what Ian Rapoport said. Rapoport tweeted, "#Patriots QB Cam Newton suffered a slight bone bruise today at practice, banging his hand on a helmet, source said. Not considered major at all, but since it’s the Spring, we may not see much more of him until training camp."

Rap is saying it's from a helmet, others have said the injury was from getting hit with a light pad from a coach. Nobody knows but if it's minor, why would Cam be out? Sure we can choose to believe it's so he doesn't hurt it more but due to NFL rules Belichick doesn't have to release the injury report. So we have to take the Patriots at their word. Belichick also loathes the media. And we all know Robert Kraft likes to make money.

Here's a wild thought, and don't take this as fact but what if the Patriots had Newton fake the injury and told him to take half a day of practice? Mac Jones needs the extra workout time, and the Patriots need to sell Stidham.

Ask yourselves what was the second biggest story from camp friday. After the Newton injury, it was how great Stidham looked. Newton can return to practice without the media there, then sit out with the media around and with the 'Patriots way', we'd never know because they would keep it in house. It's an almost perfect plan, it's Belichick like, and it's not out of the realm of possibility.

The emergence of Stidham has created hype that he could possibly challenge for the starting job. What does that do, it leads to merchandise sales. The Stidham bandwagon is going to buy Jerseys. Friday sold Stidham to the NFL, to get them to pay attention but it also sold him to the fanbase.

On top of that, how's it gonna look when Newton overcomes this injury, overcomes the odds and retains the starting position? Can you say cha-ching? That's more merchandise sales. Newton's a good self promoter and can see the dollar signs in this. 

Nobody outside the organization knows anything about what's actually going on. We know Belichick is a coaching genius, and the Kraft is a shrewed businessman. Combined, we know they have no issues walking in the gray area of the rules when they have to.

So while it's great to think that the Patriots might have three capable quarterbacks and disheartening if you're a Newton fan to think he's gonna miss opportunities to improve, don't. Don't be a pawn in the Patriots chess game.