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Sunday, December 13, 2020

Bubbles are meant to be popped.

After the Chargers game, nobody in Patriots nation wanted to look for or talk about anything the Patriots did wrong in the blow out. In fact most of Patriots nation attacked anyone who did. So when the played Thursday, confidence was high that the team was back to normal.

Ray Rauth of sportscastr news wrote, "Last night’s game was simple for the New England Patriots, win or go home. Well, the Patriots left SOFI Stadium with the loss, and their playoff hopes long gone. What happened last night was the exact opposite of what we saw last Sunday when the Patriots beat the Las Angeles Chargers 45-0, in what can only be described as a complete team victory. Last night, under the lights, the Patriots fell to the Las Angeles Rams 24-3, and that game can only be described as complete team loss. The only New England unit that shouldn’t be in the dog house is special teams, besides that, the offense, defense, and the coaching, are on the hook for last night’s loss."

The Patriots played a bend, don't break defense that only allowed 17 points. If the offense did it's job, the Patriots' defense would've been acceptable. Newton barely completed over 50% of his passes going 9 of 16 for 119 yards and a pick six. Stidham had to come in during garbage time. He went 5 of 7 for 27 yards and a drop by Michel. 

The running game which was has been led by Newton all year was average when they were expected to carry the game. Newton only mustered little over 2 yards a carry and the team rushed for barely 100 yards.

I could go on but like Ray said it was a complete team loss. This season really seems like a. Extended 2021 preseason. The Patriots have evaluated their talent and developed some of their personal. The Patriots end the season versus the Jets and should come out fully on offense if their eliminated from the playoffs. 

While the Patriots are always one week at a time, never looking ahead. They're already on to 2021. Patriots nation needs to end all expectations for the rest of the year and just enjoy football.

Belichick is annoyed with his starting quarterback situation being the topic of press conferences.

Cam Newton has reportedly played bad enough for not only him to get benched but to have the reporters barrade Bill Belichick with questions on whether Cam Newton will continue to be the starter.

Bill Belichick doesn't not like to repeat himself. He doesn't like stupid questions. He doesn't like his decisions questioned, and he most certainly doesn't like to give too much away.

In a recent article, Jerry Trotta of Musket Fire wrote, "The worst part is that we have no idea. One thing is for certain, however, and that is Newton’s performance this season –regardless of the unfavorable circumstances he’s had to overcome — hasn’t exactly made a strong case for the Patriots to renew his one-year contract. Any extension would likely be a one-year bridge and not a path to certainty.

Through 12 games, Newton ranks in the bottom half of the league in completion percentage (66.1%), passing yards (2,172), yards per attempt (7.2) passing touchdowns (5), interceptions (10) and passer rating (78.9). The last time we checked, those numbers haven’t lived up to the Patriots’ lofty standards."

There's nothing wrong with Cam's completion percentage until you look at how accurate he is as a thrower, how often he fails to see open pass catchers, and how he struggles on timing routes. 

Tom Brady's stats for 2019 are a typical year for Cam Newton, minus 400 yards passing and plus 400 yards rushing. Although I have strongly disagreed, the arguement was that Newton never had weapons in Carolina. 

Cam Newton is having a down year, especially in the touchdown passing  department. The excuse is "he doesn't have weapons, he's a good quarterback". The only thing short on the excuse is, "if he had the weapons Carolina gave him..." 

The Patriots pass catchers might not be the best at getting open but contrary to belief, they are getting open. Coaches tape has been used by many analysts since the Denver game to the present, to show he's not seeing or ignoring pass catchers. 

The television camera only shows a sample of the field. One thing I have learned over the years is networks cannot be relied on because they often ignore things to talk about what ever the broadcasters wanna talk about. Sometimes they show the full replay and others they don't.

With the Patriots only having three games left and Belichick not liking to give away much. With Belichick saying Stidham was ahead of where he should be after the 2019 season due to getting snaps with the first team in practice and then around the first week of November, Belichick saying Stidham has improved from last year. It is unclear if Belichick will play Stidham or not once eliminated. Teams have limited tape on Stidham and the less they know the better.

Thomas Carannante of Musket Fire wrote, "But what’s worse for New England? It’s clear there’s no answer at quarterback. Cam Newton can’t get the job done as a passer, whether it’s because he’s regressed to the max, isn’t up to speed with the offense, or is really hurting from this abdominal injury.

Whatever the case, it’s really bad news for Bill Belichick and Co. if Jarrett Stidham is getting snaps at the end of games, which has happened four times now in 2020."

Why is it bad news, because the Patriots have to give up tape on Stidham and it means that the starter has losses the game and confidence of the coach.

While the fan base either wants Newton extended for the next decade or Belichick to draft a quarterback, there are some who want to see number four at the helm.

Danny Jaillet of Pats wire wrote, "Granted, we have not seen much in terms of playing time from Stidham. To be clear, I’m all for giving Stidham a chance at extended action. I want to see what he can do. However, there needs to be a contingency plan in case Stidham does not progress enough to warrant starting consistently.

The NFL is becoming a league of offense now. Good quarterback play is not only important but crucial to winning games these days."

Another bad thing is against the Chargers in garbage time when normally every coach in the NFL, including Belichick would've run the ball; Belichick had Stidham throw the ball. That's not done unless you're not confident in your starter or the coach and team feels disrespected by the opponent. So consider that as the 2020 season comes to a close.

McDaniels doesn't trust Newton.

In 2019 the Patriots had Tom Brady throw it 620 times and the team ran the ball 447 times. This season the Patriots have had Cam throw it 301 times and the team as a whole, has thrown it 361 times. The Patriots have already run the ball 427 times with three games left. 113 of those rushes have been by Cam Newton, compared to 26 by Tom Brady in 2019.

Now McDaniels recently came out and took blame for the failures in the passing game but what was he supposed to say, "the guy cannot get it done with his arm but Belichick wants to play him for the season?" Yeah, I don't think that would fly well.

Jerry Trotta of Musket Fire wrote, "We’ve heard time and again how it appears the Patriots have no faith in their quarterback’s ability to throw the ball..."

Watching Newton play this season, he has a high completion percentage but a lot of credit has to go to his pass catchers. Newton frequently throws the balls in his pass catchers bubble, meaning that the passes are high, wide, behind, or too low. Newton has also missed seeing open pass catcher quite a bit and at one point wasn't throwing to his right.

Trotta continued by saying, "Newton’s arm isn’t what it used to be, but it’s not a zero. And nothing we’ve seen from McDaniels has presented any belief in his current signal caller, who was supposed to unlock his beloved old offense from the days of Tim Tebow.

Unfortunately, the Tebow similarities have been far greater than we’d hoped."

The Patriots have been working on the 31 year old quarterback's throwing mechanics. Something done with rookies and sophomores, not veterans that have been in the league for a decade. When the Patriots try to run timing routes, Newton has struggled to release on time. Many times taking a sack or throwing the ball into coverage.

Cam is a "see it and throw it" quarterback, who makes his living off running around and throwing deep slants, streaks, and fades (straight line routes)  over his opponents heads. He looks at times this season, hesitant to scramble for unknown reasons.

The Patriots are not built for that style offense. Although they adapted Newton's option plays, they're still built to hit the slot receivers on quick passing routes over the middle. Backs on routes out of the back field and tight ends on the seam or in the flats. The entire offense is built on timing, not speed and 50/50 deep balls.

That's incompatible with how Newton plays. With Cam's struggles as a passer, I believe that he was a bench warmer for this season. I warned everyone that this offense would be a minimum 60-40 of Tom Brady's offense at the minimum. People thought the Patriots would switch to a run and shoot offense.

The Patriots get pieces to fit, instead of stars. This time they got a star who was a square that they tried to shove in their round hole. No matter how hard they try, they cannot make Newton work this year and please don't say the 31 ranked Jets or 32 ranked Seahawks pass defense. They couldn't get pressure or cover.

The Patriots may bring him back to mentor a rookie, like Fitzpatrick; or to be security blanket incase Stidham cannot beat him out and struggles in camp or early next season. Like CBS sports said "Cam should be most likely holding a clip board in 2021, looking for a chance to erase this season". Kinda like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco are doing.

Saturday, December 12, 2020

Cam Newton and the Patriots offense

McDaniels was vanilla last season. I called that and everyone rushed to his defense. He could've done so much more. It takes a quarterback normally 3 years to learn a system and everyone else 2.

I said at the beginning of the season that it would be at minimum 60-40 Brady's offense because they wanted to try and win. Plus the Team was built for Brady's offense and not a Hail Mary / bomb or scramble offense.

The patriots went out and for the first time got a piece that doesn't match their system. They're using Cam to the best of their ability, while not getting rid of the "Air West Spread" quick grid passing offense (Hybrid Air raid, west coast, and spread offense). I wrote an article about the offensive system earlier this year.

Quarterbacks normally are more accurate when they dink and dunk. That was part of  the Tom Brady Offense. Newton is not a timing route quarterback, he never will be. That's the issue the Patriots are having, they can't coach that into Newton. They got a square peg and they cannot round the corners to fit.

Newton needs a team full of speed X-recievers that can catch 20+ yard bombs and hail marys 25 times a game. Slot receivers will struggle with Cam unless McDaniels and Belichick can teach Newton how to improve as a passer. Meaning hitting quick release short to intermediate timing routes.

Newton throws to the bubble of his pass catchers, balls are in the ground, above their heads, way in front of them or behind them. It's not in their hands or bread basket enough. He needs four or five "Megatrons". Guys running 20+ yard slants, fades, and streaks. Straight line routes for the most part.

He had a good games against the Seahawks and Jets because they weren't getting to him and they couldn't cover his pass catchers. The 31st and 32nd pass defense. Tim Tebow could've put up 300 on those teams. If Newton plays the remaining three games he'll get another chance to pad his stats versus the Jets.

With how Newton's accuracy looks this year, free agents pass catchers are gonna look at Newton's accuracy, realize what type of pass catchers he needs and unless they fit the mold, they're gonna go elsewhere. Even if they fit the mold, if they want to win; they may still go elsewhere. There's a reason he only had three winning seasons in Carolina, and It's largely him.

I know, Newton didn't have weapons in Carolina but then people still bragged about how good he was with no weapons. Now in New England, he's playing bad as a passer and "it's the lack of weapons and the play calling"? Maybe 35 percent can be blamed on McDaniels and his teammates, the rest is on Newton.

Cam might be popular but it's clear the style offense he needs is a college option run and shoot. Unless the Patriots abandon the offense that has worked for 20 years with small modifications here and there, that offense will not be ran in 2021. They've adapted his option style to their offense which has been okay but he's failed to grasp their passing offense.

Cam might be back for a second season as security but unless things go poorly for the rest of the quarterback room, Cam should be gone after 2021, maybe 2022 but that's only if his backup needs development next season. That's my opinion. Take it or leave it.

As far as Stidham goes, the Patriots are in the hunt for a playoff spot. After this upcoming game, even if Cam is the man, bench him if they get eliminated. No point on getting Newton hurt if the team is done. Treat the remaining games like the preseason. Give the bench playing time and rest or limit your starters to avoid injury.

https://youtu.be/nGxsPwalrf4

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

The Patriots Offense Must Be Better, Especially On Third And Long.

By now everyone knows the Patriots need to play perfectly the remaining four games and get a little help to make the playoffs. The offense has been inconsistent and by far the biggest weak link this season. Sure the team can run the ball but that doesn't help on third and long.

In a perfect world, every play would net the offense a minimum 3.5 yards per play. That's not the case and the Patriots are going to need to convert on third and long. Currently the Patriots are converting 43.57% on third  down. The Buffalo Bills are converting over 49% and this up coming LA Rams over 46%. So the best thing defensively the Patriots can do is hang onto the ball for as long as possible.

Currently the Patriots are ranked 30th in passing offense per game and are ranked last in passing first downs. Everyone has heard the excuse that the Patriots don't have weapons and the pass catchers cannot get open. 

First, Newton never had weapons in Carolina according to his fans and he still moved the chains via the air. Secondly, starting against the Broncos, that myth of players not getting open was busted. Analysts are privy to coaches tape, which shows everything, not just the scope from the broadcast. 

Almost every week since the Denver game, they have pointed out people like Ryan Izzo or N'Keal Harry being open and not getting the pass. The television has even shown it with Keene and Izzo being open and Newton not getting them the ball. At one point it was noted that Cam didn't throw to his right, meaning anyone open on his right was ignored.

Cam Newton has been called a see it and throw it quarterback, the 31 year old former mvp is having his mechanics changed because he's inaccurate. He's a 10 year veteran and that's something one hears about for rookies and sophomores. 

Newton has his best completion percentage for a season so far but watching him, balls are high, wide or in the dirt; placement is off. The guy cannot drink and dunk. He throws grounders and dirt balls. Like Ray Rauth said, He has to learn to do that.

So how much of his high completion percentage falls onto how good of pass catchers his teammates are? A lot actually. They're making him look more accurate than he is.

Cam is the starter but for an example, Jarrett Stidham came in versus the Chargers and hit a timing route to Gunner across the middle for a touchdown. Being a throw it and see it quarterback, Newton struggles on those plays. With exception to Byrd, those are the routes that the Patriots pass catchers are built for. Newton doesn't have the accuracy to hit a player consistently with the defender within 2 yards if his target.

Speaking of Byrd, Newton had him open but his inaccuracy costed the Patriots when he missed badly on a 44 yard bomb versus the bolts. Luckily the Patriots didn't need it then but what happens against Miami, Buffalo, or LA if the Patriots are struggling and can take the lead with under two minutes and Newton misses that play? Newton's accuracy issues have proven that it's a real concern that in that scenario. That would be the outcome. 

So while it's every coaches dream that their offense is so productive that they're always in short and third or that they never get to third; it's unrealistic to expect them to be that productive, especially against good defenses. 

One more thing, three of the four remaining opponents are going to stack the Box. It's nice Cam Newton can run for touchdowns but quarterbacks are expected to have more throwing touchdowns then rushing. If Newton was newr or over 20 rushing touchdowns for the season, nobody would have an issue with how many passing touchdowns he has. Typically the average quarterback throws for about 25 touchdowns and then rush maybe upto an additional 4 more.

Cam Newton can be the inconsistent game manager in the passing game versus Miami and the Jets. The defense and special teams should be able to pick up his slack during those two games. 

However, in return the defense needs Newton to play like he has the passing ability of a 12-16 range quarterback. Not like one who can't lead the offense with his arm. The Patriots are ranked 30th in passing offense. As much as people wanna believe he's throwing like a sharpshooter, he's more like sporadic like a Gatling gun operator. He'll hit the target but he'll hit everything else also.

The receivers might only be getting a yard to yard and half separation but this is the NFL, not college. That's wide open, Newton has to start putting the ball in their hands and not in their bubble. Otherwise the Patriots are gonna need more of a miracle to make the post season. 

Another thing, now that Michel has lost his job, it's time to start using him as a pass catcher. We've seen an inaccurate Brady in 2019 miss him. What he did versus the Chargers

The RGIII, Vick, Lamar Jackson style offenses are supposed to be exciting. The Patriots Cam Newton style is slow and I have heard many fans this season complain that these are the most boring Patriots games they've ever seen, even with the trick and gadget plays. Without the threat of a quick strike passing attack in this offense, even fans don't respect the passing game. For myself, last year was boring offensively but this offense is actually worse. Idk how that could be possible.

Quick strike passing attack just doesn't appear to be part of Newton's game. Hopefully for the next few weeks, Newton can fake it until the Patriots make it (to the playoffs). Then they can game plan for the playoff teams accordingly. It all starts with the man under center. Currently, it all starts with Newton and that's a scary thought.

Saturday, December 5, 2020

Like it or Not Tyrod is a Better Quarterback Than Newton.

Tyrod Taylor came into the league in 2011, same year as Cam and spent four years behind Joe Flacco. He was never gonna start in Baltimore. Tyrod soon found himself in Buffalo.

In Buffalo, Taylor had three coaches over his four season span. Rex Ryan was a joke. Anthony Lynn tried in his short time as interim coachand so did McDermott. Taylor still had 3 different offenses from 2015-2017. Living in Rochester, I get to see a bit of Buffalo's games. In 2017 Taylor helped lead Buffalo to the playoffs, even while getting benched because the fanbase thought Peterman was the next Tom Brady. 

Go back and watch Taylor's second half when he came in to take his job back from Peterman. If Taylor had started that Game Buffalo would've had 9 wins. 

What I saw in Buffalo was an accurate mobile quarterback who was conservative and like a former Patriots starting quarterback, he didn't like to throw the fifty fifty ball. Taylor could read the defense and see when there where defenders waiting to jump the pass. 

It happened in the playoffs and the broadcaster still wanted him to make throws that would be picked. If not for an injury Taylor would've lead Buffalo to a playoff win in 2017. The biggest problem with his time in Buffalo was they listened to the fans too much and changed their offense every year.

During his 44 regular season games in Buffalo, Taylor completed 62.6% of his 1236 attempts for 8,857 yards with, 51 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.  He also rushed for 1475 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5.5 ypc. Taylor also had 17 fumbles over that span.

Cam Newton over those 3 years played in 47 regular seasongames and won an MVP in 2015. Completed 57.26 of his 1497 attempts 10,648 yards with, 76 touchdowns and 40 interceptions. Newton also rushed for 1534 yards, and 21 touchdowns, averaging 4.7 ypc. Newton also had 17 fumbles over that span.

From 2018 to 2020 taylor has gotten injured and rode the bench. Over that span, mainly in Cleveland, Taylor has completed 62 of 121 passes for 714 yards. Taylor threw for 3 touchdowns and 2 INTs. Taylor also ran it for 139 yards and 1 touchdown, averaging averaging 4.34 ypc. Over that span, Taylor had 2 fumbles.

For his career, Taylor is a 61.4 completion percentage quarterback.

Cam Newton was a 59.57 career completion percentage quarterback, who is still very inaccurate. This season he has 66.9% of his passes for 1984 yards, With 4 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He's also ran for 397 yards and 9 touchdowns, averaging 4.2 ypc. Newton has 3 fumbles on the year.

Taylor is a more accurate quarterback mobile quarterback. If the Patriots can increase Newton accuracy by 7 points, they can do that much easier with Taylor. 

As much as the fan base is not gonna like it. Taylor was more consistent during his time in Buffalo then Cam has been his entire career. Taylor is more accurate, less turnover prone, and a better passer, who averaged more yards with his legs when give the same amount of attempts. Taylor might not have Newton's prototype build but he is an upgrade over Newton. If Taylor had started for the Panthers in 2015, I believe he was capable of winning an MVP. 

The one thing that New England offers Taylor is stability. He would be coming into an offense that won't change from year to year, and his locker room won't be a joke. Taylor being a better passer, also has a longer shelf life. So while Cam is the Patriots quarterback, Taylor would be better for the Patriots.

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

What do the Patriots do at quarterback for the rest of the 2020 season.

The first three weeks of this season, I noticed Cam Newton was missing or ignoring open pass catchers. Sometimes he'd throw it to a covered target and other times he'd run. I mainly noticed this towards Ryan Izzo. I read, watch and listen to a lot of sports writers and analysts, least in my opinion. After the Broncos game, analysts started saying that coaches tape showed him ignoring Izzo and other open pass catchers.

Every week starting with the Broncos game, analysts have been saying this. There was also a moment where they said Cam wasn't throwing to his right. That means anyone open to his right was ignored. Now we at home, unless we know where to look, only have what we see on the television, we don't see the full tape.

 

After the Arizona win, Harry took a lot of heat for when his quarterback was in trouble and having to be directed. Several analysts, including CLNS media, who had someone at the game; pointed out that Harry was open multiple times during the game and even during the one play where Newton had to tell Harry what to do.


Cam Newton has 266 passing plays, 30.6 a game. A protection rate of 81.1%, 21 danger plays and 15 interceptable passes. Newton has throw 9 Interceptions and 3 fumbles. He's ranked 27th with a 71.2% true completion percentage.  He is ranked 31st in true passer rating with a 74.8. 


Matt Dolloff wrote this after the Patriots beat the Cardinals, "Overall, Newton went 9-for-18 for 84 yards and two interceptions passing - a 23.6 rating. You get a 39.6 if you just spike the ball on every play."

One of the things I have heard and read from analysts is don't confuse completion percentage with accuracy. They pointed out versus Arizona, how although Newton completed the pass to white on the screen pass, that the ball was high.

Mark Daniels wrote after the Arizona game, "The quarterback missed open targets, held the ball for too long and nearly cost the Patriots the win."

Karen Guregain wrote, "FOXBORO — Maybe Bill Belichick wouldn’t admit or acknowledge it after the game, but the thought had to cross his mind about pulling the plug on this not-so-excellent Cam Newton adventure.

Maybe not for the game at hand, but for the rest of the season. That was how it was trending, as Newton was performing that badly against the Cardinals."

Cam is also the Patriots starter until Belichick or Robert Kraft say otherwise. I do my best to support him but as a passer, he is doing just enough but just enough isn't good enough because he's too inconsistent. When Cam is good, he's a top 9-16 quarterback but when he's bad, he's a bottom 8.

Quarterbacks start to decline between 35 and 36 years of age. Cam is a running back who throws, and running backs start decending at 30. There was an analysts who also said something similar recently and I agree.

As a quarterback, Newton is 6-7 years further in his career because his skill revolves around his legs and not his arm. I am one of the few Patriots fans that did not want Newton signed long term after week 2. Who wanted to wait and continue to evaluate him. Who is not excited to see Newton play, thinks the patriots option offense is too slow and thinks Newton has 2 years left as a starter at most. 

Check this out, Ryan Izzo has been targeted 19 times with a target rate of 7.6% , 68.4% catchable passes, Target quality 4.4%, and a true catch rate of 92.3. He catches the ball when it's catchable.

His teammate, N'Keal Harry has been targeted 43 times this season or with a target rate of 18.9%, a 65% catchable rate, 3.3% target quality and a true catch rate of 85.7.

In comparison DK Metcalf has 90 targets with a target rate of 23.9%. 76.7 catchable passes, a target separation rate of 7 and a true catch rating of 84. If Harry was thrown more catchable passes his catch rate would be higher but that requires a more accurate passer.

Notice Metcalf has almost twice as many targets as Harry. Part of that reason is Newton doesn't see the field, is staying too long on or throwing to an earlier read or is taking off.

Analysts also mention a play sunday where Newton had Byrd open and threw the ball out of bounds. 5 of Newton's 9 incompletions were on poor throws. These weren't cause he was under pressure and throwing it away.

This was something I noticed earlier this season. Newton would have Izzo wide open and the ball would sail 5 yards above or around him, or Newton would try to force it to a covered receiver while Izzo was open someplace on the screen. 

The CLNS pod cast had talked about how Newton's game is the 10-20 yard range and that Cam has no idea how to take anything off. They use that as their explanation for why Newton puts so many balls short and in the dirt. Five yard passes should be a gimme for any quarterback but for Newton, they're harder to hit than 30 yard passes. 

Evan Lazar has said repeatedly that Newton "is not a passing drill, timing route quarterback. He's a run around, see it and throw it over your head quarterback." When it's clutch time and the Patriots need a passer, unless they're playing poor defenses, they cannot count on Cam's arm. How anyone could be excited from this, I don't get.

Dolloff continued,  "This win at least proves that Bill Belichick is still capable of preparing the roster enough to scratch out a win despite poor quarterback play."

Cam Newton isn't apologizing for his performance, saying he'd take "an ugly win over a pretty loss". At the end of the Day, a win in 75% of what matters. However with five games left and the playoffs still in reach, everyone's individual performances still matter. That leads to a whole can of questions for how the team proceeds.

There has been one question going around and it has been a debate among analysts. Newton is playing to help see what they have with their other guys. However, with how inaccurate Newton is. With how many times he either hangs on to the ball to long, throws it to a covered, or tucks it and runs; how much longer will they leave him in there? His fallacies are hurting the growth and development of the other players, whether anyone wants to admit it or not.

The question then goes to if not Cam, who? Analysts say Stidham is still making young or rookie mistakes and that includes turning the ball over. Now many analysts agree that it his turnover rate could improve as he gains experience on the NFL level. Analysts say that Stidham understands timing routes and is more accurate but again the main knocks on Stidham are that he's in experienced, and both games that he was put in, the game was still in reach and he couldn't handle the pressure and turned it over.

Then the arguement is made that Stidham's play was comparable to Newton's first half versus the Raiders during his first game, and comparable to Newton's performance versus the 49ers in Stidham's second appearance.

I have said that the Patriots need to ride with Newton until they're out of playoff contention but if Sunday's win was a statement win, The Patriots could make the playoffs despite an inconsistent Cam Newton. There are huge problems with that as far as developing players on the offense go.

Another thing I noticed and stated is Tom Brady's 2019 season stats minus 400 yards passing and plus 400 yards rushing are a typical season for Cam Newton. I said that since week one. Newton's passing stats are down by like 300 yards and that includes his one game missed. However, he's still pretty close with exceptions to his touchdown passes.

With the areas Newton is struggling, he could actually be doing more damage than good at developing other pass catchers but his legs give the Patriots the best chance to win. The alternative is a more accurate less mobile and inexperienced Stidham.

So what do the Patriots do? That is the million dollar question. When asked about the quarterback position going forward after Arizona, Belichick didn't sound as confident in Newton as he did after Houston.

Think about this, after returning from injury; In 2009 a 32 year old Brady had a 800+ yard pass catcher, a 700+ pass catcher, a 500+ yard pass catcher, and a 400+ yard pass catcher. His main receiver was Welker who is the equivalent of Julian Edelman. His secondary receiver was a washed up Dion Branch. Newton's on pace to have 4 pass catchers with the same amount of yards.

Here's the one major difference. A 32 year old Brady with nobodies at the end or beginning of their career and that includes inexperienced Hernandez and Gronk but Brady still put up 29 touchdowns all together. Newton with a similar offensive build at 31 is only on pace for 19 total touchdowns this season.

In 2019, Brady had 27 total touchdowns, which is around where Newton is normally and the offense is basically the same. So that's a huge decline in Newton's production.

One cannot use the arguement that Newton had no weapons in Carolina, and then say his stats are down in New England because he has no weapons. The arguements cancel each other out.

There was an arguement that the Patriots would be a better team in 2020, than in 2019 but would have a worse record. Now the question has to be asked, would the team of been better off going with Stidham than Newton. 

For those that say "I think we know", with everything Newton has shown us this season including camp in August, with Belichick orginally wanting to sit Stidham another year before Tom left, with the Patriots having confidence in Stidham this spring and summer, and with Belichick telling WEEI the following on around November 4th, "WE DON'T KNOW" if they would've been better off.

Here's what Belichick told 'Ordway, Merloni and Fauria early in November, "Jarrett has improved a lot from last year. He’s a much better player than he was last year. Just want him to continue to track in that positive direction. We’ll just see how it goes.”

Here's my final thought. There are many who will say don't play a young quarterback early, let them sit and develop because the risk of them losing confidence like Josh Rosen apparently did could happen to anyone. This line of thinking is especially true among Patriots nation. So why is Stidham now the exception to that line thinking or is it because he's a Patriots quarterback, or is it because he's not Cam Newton, and how can we be sure that's not what Belichick is doing with Stidham?

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Yes, We can be mad at Cam, Even with his statline, his production was lacking in a few key areas.

Newton went 26 of 40 for 365 and a touchdown. People are saying that with his performance, one cannot be mad at Newton. Newton's third incompletion was a bad decision and should've been picked off. 

His decision making is still not where it should be. He's a bigger turnover risk at this point of his career than Farve and Eli were. Averaging 20 a season. This is a normal statistical season for Newton. 

As for this game, to quote Doug Kyed for this game, "Separation, by the way, was not a problem." That's the thing this season, coaches tape time and time has shown Newton has pass catchers open. He either is not seeing them, throwing inaccurately or ignoring them. Look back this season, how many times was Izzo open and if Newton threw it to him, the ball was nowhere near catchable.

It was partially Newton's fault, yeah he threw for 365 but that's what teams do in losing situations. They put the ball in the air. The Patriots started the second half trailing by eleven points and trailed the entire second half. The score was 24-17 to start the fourth.

So, I disagree with not being able to blame Newton partially. I am going to break down what my issue was with the final play of the game and then other issues I have seen. 

Four seconds left in the game, the ball is inches from the Patriots 38 yard line. Newton hikes the ball from the shotgun and steps up into the pocket. Nobody is around Cam Newton, he has time and needs to put the ball into the endzone to have a chance for the win on a Hail Mary. 

Newton has all the time he needs and throws the ball from his own 34 yard line. Again Newton had about 4 more yards to step up. Izzo catches the ball at the 10 and falls forward, for a 51 yard catch. The pass traveled a total of 56 yards.

Two things bothered me on this play which fall on Cam. The first is that he had no presence of his surroundings. I'll get more into that as it was a problem during the game but he should've continued to move up.

The second was the Patriots needed him to heave the football as far as he could and he only threw it 56 yards. Newton is 31 and has a max arm of 56 yards? When Bledsoe retired at 35, he could still sling it 70 yards. Unlike 43 year old Brady, who made his money off of throwing the dink and dunk; Newton has made his money off running around and throwing the ball over defenders heads.

Okay, now that I have said what was wrong with the final play and why I blame that play on Newton, let's dive into what else I had an issue with and that is Newton doesn't have or has very little pocket awareness but it just not pocket but field awareness. Luckily, professional analysts saw issues with the same things. Phil Perry, Doug Kyed, Evan Lazar, Tom Curran, and the Patriots beat podcast to name a few.

The Texans hurried and pressured Newton and 6 of his incompletions were because of it. Twice Newton's incompletions were batted down by the guy pressuring him. JJ Watts, figured out Newton's timing and knew when to put his hands up as well.

I am sure I'm gonna beat this to a dead horse but Cam has little pre snap or pocket awareness. His field awareness isn't much better. He's been sacked 15 times this season. He's thrown 7 interceptions this season with many dropped passes. His ball security is just as bad as his awareness. If a Jets defender had more awareness, Cam would've handed the ball to him near the goal line when he stretched out.

Newton isn't making throws, especially the gimme passes. He's either inaccurate and putting them in the ground or not seeing the pass catchers. He's not making proper adjustments at the line. He's not seeing people when he goes through his reads and he's not always moving around or taking off when he should. 

He's a mirage, an optical illusion on paper. Sure we can pick a few good plays out of the limited number of them to make a highlight package to sell Newton but we have an overwhelming number of mistakes and bad plays to choose from. What he does wrong out weights what he does right.

Patriots podcast, "There's no blitz pick up before the snap, in real time Cam has guys coming into his face and he doesn't see it, he has no ware with all..." "Cam goes into a holy shit mode or doesn't see it at all that's been a problem of recognition..."

Evan Lazar, "Cam can't figure out how to handle the blitz, how to center protection properly." "90% of his issues are pretty snap, are before snap issues..." "He doesn't seem to sense that the blitz is coming right away. It's like oh, the guys right on top of me I better make him miss, right?"

"Cam Newton is not a consistent down to down thrower," said Lazar. Earlier this year, Evan had said that Newton was a "throw it and see it guy, a guy who would run around and beat you by throwing the ball over your head". That "Newton was not a timing, passing drill quarterback."

Phil Perry, " When Jakobi Meyers and Ryan Izzo are pointing at a blitzer and you still don't see it and end up getting sacked. Those are the little things with the occasional inaccurate throw, It's identifying Blitzers, it's making the check down throw..." "We see the random inaccurate throws in the short area, we see the missed protections; those things you have to have, to have success." "It's low level quarterbacking stuff that he should be able to do."

Ben Volin tweeted out that Cam Newton leads the league in batted down passes (4.8) which is hard to imagine for a quarterback of his build. 13.3 poor attempts, 33 poor throws. 30 passes defended and only 7 dropped passes. Newton has thrown 248 times. Josh McDainels is the only thing helping Newton have a 68.1 completion percentage.

I love offensive football. This for me has been one of the most boring seasons as a Patriots fan. Newton is a mobile quarterback and his option plays are so slow and the play calling is to be desired. Analysts are blaming Cam for that.

Now I've been saying McDaniels playcalling has looked vanilla since 2018. This year McDaniels is trying to mix up formations with Cam. Trying to put him under center and run with different personal. Cam doesn't seem to be able to execute. He certainly cannot drink anddrink, which is the easiest thing for a quarterback to do but Newton puts the ball into the ground. 

For a 31 year old quarterback he's playing like a sophomore. Especially having to have his throwing mechanics changed at this stage of his career. It explains why, Newton and Stidham's play has been said to be comparable this season. 

What we're seeing is expected from a second year player who's still learning with little NFL experience but not from a former league mvp. Newton is in decline and the Panthers are looking smarter and smarter for moving on.

Patriots beat podcast, " They are running a limited playbook with Cam, this is a basic offense with a trick play or two thrown in there and that's it so..." " It's his style, he's a get out there, figure it out, be Cam Newton, make it happen sort of quarterback and it really really limits the amount of things you can do..." For Cam, "The offense has to be so boring and vanilla that you can only do so much with it. That's the tough part with Newton and everyone's concern"

The Texans were a team I thought the Patriots could put up 250 yards through the air and another 150 on the ground. I expected Newton to take off a good 5 to 6 times and he only ran it 3 times. Idk if that was from the Texans playing the run or Newton just wanting to throw to save his job due to the criticism grom how bad his passing stats are.

When it comes to playcalling, Phil Perry Said Newton isn't accurate enough for McDaniels to get more agressisve. Now we've seen that all season, especially on first and second down. Perry is correct with that.

Evan Lazar said Newton has "looked sloppy and not perfect this year." Add to that how inconsistent he is. The fact that he doesn't get through his reads when he has time, that he holds on to the ball when he shouldn't, or that he doesn't see the field and runs with open pass catchers. 

Since Cam signed, he has never shown consistency enough to say he is the future. He has looked good through the air against teams he should, and the same versus teams on the ground, with exception to the Texans. This may be a one and done but if not, Cam should be off the team by 2022 at the latest.

The big thing we hear is "If not Cam, who? Stidham dosen't have any real experience and has looked comparae to Newton. We need someone better," or they say that "I'm scared to see Stidham out there because he doesn't have experience and is averaging an interception every five passes." Verses San Francisco, Newton was doing the same and  some of these people think he's the long term solution. 

Here's the thing, the Patriots are on the fringe of being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and I still think they should win their last six games. Newton's still being evaluated but I think it's safe to say he is what he is, which is an inconsistent playmaking below average passer. His analytics might be good on paper but his execution on tape doesn't agree, it doesn't match. He's ranked 13th analytically, that's still average. Average is13 to 20. He's on the verge of putting up above average stats (9-12). Anything shy of leading the team to the playoffs isn't gonna change anything at this point for Cam, as far as for the positive. Newton can hurt himself however.

Once the Patriots are eliminated and the pressure is off, it's time to play Stidham. Evaluate him properly to see what the team needs to do in the offseason. The kid missed out on the preseason games and unlike Newton, he hasn't played in 9 games to evaluate him. He's played in garbage time pressure situations where the game was still in reach and the sophomore was expected to make the comeback. Take the pressure off and see what he has. Let him regain confidence as a quarterback and find out if he still has the potential or if the organization needs to move on. 

One thing to keep in mind for those that think Newton is the future. Earlier this year he said that playing for the Patriots was a business trip and now he won't answer whether what his future is concerning the Patriots. That combination doesn't look good for plans of a resigning.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

Patriots fail to execute their 5 keys to victory vs the Texans

I expected the To lose and it to be close. 27-20 was still a close game. I gave a list of things the Patriots had to do to win.
Watson ran it 6 times for 36 yards with a long of 11. They failed to contain him. However, they held the backs to under 2 yards a carry, when they should've been focused on stopping the pass instead of the run. We've seen the Patriots let teams run wild and keep them out of the endzone. I don't get their strategy today.

Watson put up 344 yards and 2 touchdowns on this defensive unit. He completed 75% of his passes on what is supposed to be one of the better pass defending units, not their fault. The game plan was apparently to stop the run. 

The Patriots needed to run a balanced offense, they ran a 65-35 pass heavy split. They had to be able to run the football. Newton ran it 3 times averagi6 2 ypc. Harris and White ran it a total of 16 times, averaging 3.8-3.9 ypc. Burkhead averaged 1.4 yards on 4 carries before getting hurt. 

The Patriots made a grave mistake not playing Sony Michel. The Texans are a team that the Patriots should've ran around 150 yards. This proves to me that Harris should not have a lock on the number 1 spot. When Sony played the Raiders, a Team he should destroy, he did. Expect a competition going forward.

The Patriots didn't turn the ball over but they had 7 penalties for 55 yards and their special team outside of Bailey was poor today. I always expect at least an average performance from that unit. Bethel and Gunner need to be better.

The Patriots went 7 of 13 on third downs, while that's over 50%, they needed to be better today. The Patriots are not clutch on third downs. The Patriots made it into the red zone only twice. That's horrible, 50% from the redzone is again not where they needed to be but considering they only got there once, that efficiency gets a pass.

The Patriots didn't do anything I said they needed to do to win today. The Final score ends with them trailing. Newton failing to be able to throw the ball 60 yards on the final play with a with plenty of time, also hurt the team. The ball should've been near the goal line and not the 10 yard line. Newton's arm strength is gonna come into question. Newton's 31, Bledsoe at 35 could still throw 70 yards bombs.

One last thing, since the Patriots play man, if the guy the defender is covering stays in to block, his mirror has to blitz by default.

There was one bright spot. Down by seven on the final drive, During clutch time, the Patriots went to Izzo twice. Once for 9 yards and Izzo got out of bounds. The next play was a 50+ yard hail mary to Izzo. That should put the Issue of Newton liked Olsen, so there has to be something wrong with Izzo to bed. When he needed a to win, Izzo was his man but again, the ball was 10 yards shorter than it should've been so the debate is sure to continue.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Should the Patriots resign Newton

Should the Patriots extend or resign Cam Newton. This has been a highly controversial subject all season. After Newton put up 397 yards against the worst secondary in the NFL, Patriots nation was split. Half wanted to sign Cam Newton to a 5 year $200 Million dollar plus contract, while the rest wanted to wait and evaluate him.

Newton would go on to have a poor first half versus the Raiders, and the team would eventually fall to 3 and 5 on the season, largely due to how Newton is playing the position. 

He's a playmaker and is just as valuable to the Patriots as Taysom Hill but as a passer, he's one of the worst in the league. Sure he has flashes but he's been a mediocre passer. I'll talk about his pass catcher later in the article. 

So what do fans think? A poll was done of over 100 people before the game against the Ravens. Even with the win against the Ravens, I can assure people that the percentage is still pretty close to the same on the subject.
Numbers go up and down after with every win and loss but then people come around after a few days. So it's a safe bet that the numbers are still within a 10 point difference.

After the Seattle game like many, I said the Patriots needed to wait until after the Arizona game minimum before considering Newton past 2020. That's currently weeks away and now I can say they'd be better off waiting to the season plays out.

With exception to his passing & rushing touchdowns, Cam Newton's stats are on average for his career. He doesn't have Greg Olsen or top tier pass catchers but his pass catchers are there. 


What has Newton done so far? Currently the Patriots have a 4-5 record with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs. Newton as a passer has been mediocre and they need him to pick things up.
Newton was pulled versus the 49ers, in a game he was on pace for 131 yards and 5 interceptions. Newton's passing yards per game are inflated thanks to the Jets and Seahawks.

Currently the Patriots are sitting at 194.8 yards passing a game. Fourth worst in the NFL. The Patriots only two good passing games came against the 29th and 32 ranked passing defenses. 

Those two games Newton averaged 335.5 yards in the air. Against everyone else, he's averaged 149.5, which is worst in the NFL. Newton has a habit of hanging on to the ball to long, leading to 13 sacks, 1 being a strip sack and has shown he's inaccurate. That's inaccuracy led to 7 interceptions, a number of dropped picks and that 7 would've been higher if not pulled from a game with him throwing 1 every 5 attempts.

On the ground Newton has been good, which has been a double edged sword for the passing game because tape shows he'll take off with open pass catchers.
Here's something to keep an eye on. The Ravens had a good defense all around and held Cam to a 1.91 average on 11 carries but a week prior the Jets, who are one of the worst defenses held Newton to 1.60 yards per attempt on 10 carries. One of the worst defenses and Newton was stopped like if they were a top defensive unit.

The Patriots offense this season is centered around Newton's ability to run. If teams have a blueprint to stop Newton, the Patriots are in trouble. Cam Newton does not have the vision or accuracy to lead a team with his arm, without playing bottom tier defenses. 

Another area that Newton is hurting the Patriots is in the turnover battle. Not only did Newton fumble on a strip sack but as a rusher has fumbled 2 times. Surely he learned after costing the Patriots the game versus the Bills? 

Nope, against the Jets at the goal line, Newton Stretches the ball out in front of a Jets defender. If the Jets player had better situational awareness, Newton would have another fumble.

Newton is just reckless with the football and that is something the Patriots cannot seem to fix. He's on pace to match his career averages in both Interceptions and fumbles. His totals would be much higher if not from a bit of luck or bad play from opponents.

Another major issue with resigning Newton is his ability to move the offense. Not everyone is Tom Brady but Newton's stats aren't even average as a passer. Check out the teams ability to move the ball on third and in the redzone

New England is only putting up 7 in the red zone little over 50% and is completing a 3rd down conversion 4 of every 10 attempts. 

Against the winless Jets, the Patriots only went 8 of 14 and 6 of 13 against a superior Ravens' defense. If Newton was the game manager or field general that his fans say he is, the Patriots would've completed 10-12 of those third downs against the Jets. How could the Jets stop them as well as a much better Ravens sid?

Saying well if the team would've done better on first and second down doesn't help Newton's case. He is the leader and manager of the offense. That's why he was made captain. If the team isn't moving the ball, it's on him. He needs to make better personal reads and adjustments, including calling audibles.

Hell look at the tight end production, he went from targeting Izzo and putting the ball nowhere near him on plays when he was open to sliding him down to the 4th and 5th option in the progression. Izzo like other pass catchers, has been getting open according to many analysts that have seen coaches tape. Newton has to know this when watching coaches film. Yet the ball barely goes his way. 

Maybe McDaniels is calling plays were Izzo is lower in the progression on purpose. However, with the praise the offensive line is getting and how long Newton is hanging on to the ball, Newton should have time to get to the 4th and 5th progression. So it again falls back to Cam.

So what's my take on Cam Newton's contract.  As a fan, I am not excited when I seem him play. His option plays are too slow getting off, he doesn't see all the field well, he's turnover prone and leaves me more anxious than excited. 

In fact if I'm being honest, I've been bored with this offense all year. They don't bring the same excitement or energy the Ravens offense does. The Patriots were supposed to be a Ravens light this season but they look worse than the Hawaii Warriors.

Certainly Newton still has a bunch of red flags, and the Patriots don't appear to know how to address them. They've been working on his mechanics but he keeps reverting to his old mechanics, especially in pressure moments.

When watching Lamar run his offense at the speed of it and seeing how slow and clunky the Patriots offense looks when Cam is deciding on whether to give the ball up or keep it, his processor is just way too slow. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Newton is a bugger and better rusher but a less accurate and more turnover prone quarterback than Tyrod Taylor.

I am okay with letting Can walk and having a new starting quarterback in 2021. However, If the Patriots want to resign him, He's not worth more than a 2 year $34 million dollar contract at the moment. By the time the season is done, it may be less than that.

I fail to see still how anyone can be sold on him for 2021. He just hasn't done any spectacular outside beating up on 2 really bad defenses. 

What about him not having weapons? Again, the argument of not having weapons went out the window when week after week, analysts were showing that the coaches' tape has him ignoring open pass catchers.  IT'S HARD TO BE PRODUCTIVE WHEN THE QUARTERBACK FAILS TO GET YOU THE BALL WHEN YOU'RE ABLE TO GET OPEN.

Newton has been slow and average at best, with his size bailing him out. He's playing like a 31 year old running back in decline. It was said Newton has 4 or 5 years left including this season and it shows. 

Newton has shown time after time, his arm is not enough to carry a team alone as a starter, he needs his legs or to play against a poor defense to succeed. That is why I say at most extend him until the 2022 season but no further and don't give him anywhere near top twelve money.