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Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Should the Patriots resign Newton

Should the Patriots extend or resign Cam Newton. This has been a highly controversial subject all season. After Newton put up 397 yards against the worst secondary in the NFL, Patriots nation was split. Half wanted to sign Cam Newton to a 5 year $200 Million dollar plus contract, while the rest wanted to wait and evaluate him.

Newton would go on to have a poor first half versus the Raiders, and the team would eventually fall to 3 and 5 on the season, largely due to how Newton is playing the position. 

He's a playmaker and is just as valuable to the Patriots as Taysom Hill but as a passer, he's one of the worst in the league. Sure he has flashes but he's been a mediocre passer. I'll talk about his pass catcher later in the article. 

So what do fans think? A poll was done of over 100 people before the game against the Ravens. Even with the win against the Ravens, I can assure people that the percentage is still pretty close to the same on the subject.
Numbers go up and down after with every win and loss but then people come around after a few days. So it's a safe bet that the numbers are still within a 10 point difference.

After the Seattle game like many, I said the Patriots needed to wait until after the Arizona game minimum before considering Newton past 2020. That's currently weeks away and now I can say they'd be better off waiting to the season plays out.

With exception to his passing & rushing touchdowns, Cam Newton's stats are on average for his career. He doesn't have Greg Olsen or top tier pass catchers but his pass catchers are there. 


What has Newton done so far? Currently the Patriots have a 4-5 record with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs. Newton as a passer has been mediocre and they need him to pick things up.
Newton was pulled versus the 49ers, in a game he was on pace for 131 yards and 5 interceptions. Newton's passing yards per game are inflated thanks to the Jets and Seahawks.

Currently the Patriots are sitting at 194.8 yards passing a game. Fourth worst in the NFL. The Patriots only two good passing games came against the 29th and 32 ranked passing defenses. 

Those two games Newton averaged 335.5 yards in the air. Against everyone else, he's averaged 149.5, which is worst in the NFL. Newton has a habit of hanging on to the ball to long, leading to 13 sacks, 1 being a strip sack and has shown he's inaccurate. That's inaccuracy led to 7 interceptions, a number of dropped picks and that 7 would've been higher if not pulled from a game with him throwing 1 every 5 attempts.

On the ground Newton has been good, which has been a double edged sword for the passing game because tape shows he'll take off with open pass catchers.
Here's something to keep an eye on. The Ravens had a good defense all around and held Cam to a 1.91 average on 11 carries but a week prior the Jets, who are one of the worst defenses held Newton to 1.60 yards per attempt on 10 carries. One of the worst defenses and Newton was stopped like if they were a top defensive unit.

The Patriots offense this season is centered around Newton's ability to run. If teams have a blueprint to stop Newton, the Patriots are in trouble. Cam Newton does not have the vision or accuracy to lead a team with his arm, without playing bottom tier defenses. 

Another area that Newton is hurting the Patriots is in the turnover battle. Not only did Newton fumble on a strip sack but as a rusher has fumbled 2 times. Surely he learned after costing the Patriots the game versus the Bills? 

Nope, against the Jets at the goal line, Newton Stretches the ball out in front of a Jets defender. If the Jets player had better situational awareness, Newton would have another fumble.

Newton is just reckless with the football and that is something the Patriots cannot seem to fix. He's on pace to match his career averages in both Interceptions and fumbles. His totals would be much higher if not from a bit of luck or bad play from opponents.

Another major issue with resigning Newton is his ability to move the offense. Not everyone is Tom Brady but Newton's stats aren't even average as a passer. Check out the teams ability to move the ball on third and in the redzone

New England is only putting up 7 in the red zone little over 50% and is completing a 3rd down conversion 4 of every 10 attempts. 

Against the winless Jets, the Patriots only went 8 of 14 and 6 of 13 against a superior Ravens' defense. If Newton was the game manager or field general that his fans say he is, the Patriots would've completed 10-12 of those third downs against the Jets. How could the Jets stop them as well as a much better Ravens sid?

Saying well if the team would've done better on first and second down doesn't help Newton's case. He is the leader and manager of the offense. That's why he was made captain. If the team isn't moving the ball, it's on him. He needs to make better personal reads and adjustments, including calling audibles.

Hell look at the tight end production, he went from targeting Izzo and putting the ball nowhere near him on plays when he was open to sliding him down to the 4th and 5th option in the progression. Izzo like other pass catchers, has been getting open according to many analysts that have seen coaches tape. Newton has to know this when watching coaches film. Yet the ball barely goes his way. 

Maybe McDaniels is calling plays were Izzo is lower in the progression on purpose. However, with the praise the offensive line is getting and how long Newton is hanging on to the ball, Newton should have time to get to the 4th and 5th progression. So it again falls back to Cam.

So what's my take on Cam Newton's contract.  As a fan, I am not excited when I seem him play. His option plays are too slow getting off, he doesn't see all the field well, he's turnover prone and leaves me more anxious than excited. 

In fact if I'm being honest, I've been bored with this offense all year. They don't bring the same excitement or energy the Ravens offense does. The Patriots were supposed to be a Ravens light this season but they look worse than the Hawaii Warriors.

Certainly Newton still has a bunch of red flags, and the Patriots don't appear to know how to address them. They've been working on his mechanics but he keeps reverting to his old mechanics, especially in pressure moments.

When watching Lamar run his offense at the speed of it and seeing how slow and clunky the Patriots offense looks when Cam is deciding on whether to give the ball up or keep it, his processor is just way too slow. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Newton is a bugger and better rusher but a less accurate and more turnover prone quarterback than Tyrod Taylor.

I am okay with letting Can walk and having a new starting quarterback in 2021. However, If the Patriots want to resign him, He's not worth more than a 2 year $34 million dollar contract at the moment. By the time the season is done, it may be less than that.

I fail to see still how anyone can be sold on him for 2021. He just hasn't done any spectacular outside beating up on 2 really bad defenses. 

What about him not having weapons? Again, the argument of not having weapons went out the window when week after week, analysts were showing that the coaches' tape has him ignoring open pass catchers.  IT'S HARD TO BE PRODUCTIVE WHEN THE QUARTERBACK FAILS TO GET YOU THE BALL WHEN YOU'RE ABLE TO GET OPEN.

Newton has been slow and average at best, with his size bailing him out. He's playing like a 31 year old running back in decline. It was said Newton has 4 or 5 years left including this season and it shows. 

Newton has shown time after time, his arm is not enough to carry a team alone as a starter, he needs his legs or to play against a poor defense to succeed. That is why I say at most extend him until the 2022 season but no further and don't give him anywhere near top twelve money.

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