Kraft has talked about the 4 drafts prior to the 2021 draft as being bad. The Patriots had 33 draft picks from 2017-2020. That had 10 okay to good players and 1 elite player over that span. Not including UDFA's because those aren't draft picks, those are free agents. That's just under 1/3 that they hit on in total but of elite level talent known as the first 3 rounds they had 4 players who were okay to good out of 15. Maybe 5 but your definition of good to okay is stretching it a bit. That's about 1/4 of their elite picks they got value from.
There are some that say as long as they hit, it doesn't matter. That's not how owners and the media see things. One has to be kidding themselves before a pick is selected to say that a prospect projected in the first three rounds has the same talent and value as one from the last 3 rounds.
That is why round 4 is the project round. And why not getting over 1/3 of your first three round draft picks right is considered a failure. 2/5 or 40% is what success is. In the first three rounds. If you're not close, a general manager better be up near 60% on the remaining four rounds, again UDFAs don't count.
Over the past four seasons prior to the 2021 draft, the Patriots have not hit. Whether it's poor scouting or poor coaching in terms of development, again it doesn't matter but it must be corrected. And they may have in 2021 but the jury is still out.
Now I did a blog last year after Kraft's comments. I had the Patriots finding value in 15 of their 37 first three round draft picks going back to 2011. With the 2021 draft class being unproven. That does add up to 40% but of those 15 players, I ask how many were elite? How many carried the team? That's the talent pool they came from. They had 5 elite players come in the first 3 rounds going back to 2011 and 10 good to serviceable guys.
Good to serviceable is what free agency is for. And nobody criticizes Bill's ability to find good to servicable in free agency, just the cost he has to pay to get them because free agents are almost always overpaid. And don't tell me there are less than 20 elite players in every draft. I'd wager it's around 40-50 because we know teams mis-scout players and they fall and sometimes don't even get drafted.
The Patriots just re-signed one of them. He may not be elite anymore but he was for two to maybe three seasons and I'm talking about former UDFA Malcolm Butler. And the Patriots just lost another UDFA in J.C. Jackson. Both free agents the Patriots hit on, even if they were rookie free agents.
So Kraft was right. The Patriots have only had 1 good draft out of the last 5. And need to follow-up on their drafting success if they want to stay competitive. They may only win 1 or 2 superbowls in the long term if lucky but being a playoff team gives them odds to win it every year. Cannot say that for teams who play to the win now approach.
Dream teams don't have a huge success rate in the NFL. It's bad for business and it's bad for the game to build that way. Kraft knows it. Belichick knows it. That's all that matters. The Draft is coming up and to Bill Belichick, Robert Kraft gave you a very simple and clear message concerning it. "Do Your Job!" It's a motto Everyone in New England is held to and by giving the message to Belichick, Kraft is doing his.
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