It's Improbable That The Patriots Will Sign OBJ

I recently wrote about why I don't want OBJ on the Patriots on my Facebook page. That does not mean I do not think he would be better than some of the options the Patriots have on the depth chart of pass catchers. There are just things I'm not happy with about OBJ, his true catch percentage and the number of drops he's on pace for this year are the main two. 

Here are the Patriots top five pass catchers true catch rate and drop percentage and OBJs.

Kendrick Bourne has a true catch rate of a 93.5% and a drop rate of 5.1%.

Nelson Agholor has a true catch rate of 91.7% and a drop rate of 2.4%.

Jakobi Meyers has a true catch rate of 85.2% and a drop rate of 1.4%.

Hunter Henry has a true catch rate of 93.1% and a drop rate of 2.6%.

Jonnu Smith has a true catch rate of 80.8% and a drop rate of 5.9%.

Compare that to OBJ. OBJ has a true catch rate of 70.8% and a drop rate of 11.8%. That's not on Mayfield. Those stats are on OBJ and he analytically would be coming in as the sixth best pass catcher in need of some help. Averaging his season ending totals since 2017, OBJ has had a true catch rate of 76.98% including this season so far. His drop rate over the same span is 8.04%. So Troy Brown will be busy.

Baker Mayfield's true QBR is the 6th best according to player profiler and his 72.5% true completion is good enough to be the 13th best quarterback in the nfl. Compare that to Mac Jones. Mac Jones's true QBR is ranked 18th and his true completion percentage is 71.6% ranked 18th. Baker analytical is better in two important areas then Mac, on a dysfunctional Browns team.

OBJ has to be held to some level of accountability for his stats. Patriots fans have been unhappy with Jonnu's production and OBJ's production this season has been worse according to analytics in those two areas. With a true catch rate of 70.8% and a drop rate just under 12%, how reliable of a pass catcher is OBJ but I guess that's besides the point at the moment.

It's been pointed out to me that "it's OBJ man, OBJ!" And fans have suggested that i "go watch his Giants highlights." He hasn't been a Giant since 2018, we're midway through his third season away from New York. A lot can change in three seasons, especially when it comes to a players abilities but again I digress.

The Seahawks, Chiefs, Saints, and Packers are all linked to the wideout free agent. OBJ wants to play for a contender with a good coach. Which puts the Patriots in the mix but if one looks at what Schefter said OBJ wants, the Patriots maybe at the bottom end of the mix.

Schefter said OBJ wants “a playoff contender and in a winning environment, where he believes he would be happy and productive.”

Currently the Packers are being reported as the front runners but why?

Belichick and McDaniels will use OBJ to where he's the most productive for them. However, the Patriots spread the ball around, would OBJ get the type of production he's looking for in New England to be happy? That's the question and why other teams are ranked a head of  them. 

Also with Bill Belichick being one of the oldest coaches, and his retirement nearing, how stable are the Patriots over the next few seasons? That could also be factoring into this equations. When OBJ is picking his team.

I would temper expectations on the Patriots ability to sign him and of what type of production he will deliver if signed. The Patriots would be needing to get the guy back into 2018 shape and it might not be possible or it could take time to get there. The probability of him coming to the Patriots and him being the player everyone is expecting is low. Just like there is only one Tom Brady situation, fans need to be reminded that Moss is another improbable situation to try and duplicate.

*Also to note, OBJ Number of games over the past few seasons varies.