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Friday, May 21, 2021

Cam Newton Is A Liability Until He Proves Otherwise

Why don't I have faith in Cam Newton in 2021? What I saw in 2020 is why and there's data to back it up. I understand that bad players can make players above them worse. It's the the back side of a double edged sword. That's what ended up happening to the Patriots supporting cast in 2021.

Tom Brady played with the 17th best supporting cast in 2019 and was the 17th ranked quarterback, without Newton's rushing ability. Newton played with the 22nd ranked supporting cast and still should've been ranked near his cast. Newton according to NFL.com in February 11th, 2021 was ranked the 32nd quarterback in the league. While some analytics sites have him ranked at 27 or worse.

Player profiler had Newton's receivers as the third best in separation and ever wrote an article saying it doesn't matter how open you are if your quarterback can't get you the football. I'll share some quotes from that article later. 

I decided to see where does Cam rank without his legs according to Player profiler. So I decided to average out his rankings in the different categories they keep to see where he's ranked.

Going off of the 23 categories that apply to Newton In production and efficiency,  Newton as a passer should of been ranked a maximum 26. Decision making and when he messed up come into play however. Which is why even with his legs, Newton ended up ranked 1 to 5 points worse than he should've been. When the quarterback's play is worse by 5-10 tanks than the supporting cast, of course the supporting cast production and ranking is going to drop. 

Here's what Player profiler's Neil Duttonhad to say about Newton. "The same cannot be said for Cam Newton, sadly. His 2020 stint with the New England Patriots did little to suggest that he still has the skills required to be the Cam we knew and loved. Newton averaged just 177.1 passing yards per game on the second-most run-heavy offense in the NFL last season. His 24.5 attempts per game were no doubt banking on his being efficient with the ball. This did not happen. He ranked No. 27 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt with a 5.9 average. There were 31 quarterbacks who boasted a higher Accuracy Rating than his 6.9 mark. He also tossed eight (No. 35) Money Throws against 27 (No. 20) Danger Plays. Granted, Newton was not exactly blessed with a strong cast of receivers. But the Patriots pass catchers did average 1.77 (No. 3) yards of Target Separation. Still, getting open is not much of an advantage when your quarterback sends a Catchable Pass only 73.9-percent (No. 35) of the time. "

Now Dutton is right, Newton's supporting cast wasn't the best but even still he puts the blame on Newton.  Even with the upgrades, Newton's flaws as a passer make Newton a liability whenever the Patriots end up in a passing situation. How bad are Smith and Henry gonna be ranked due to Newton?His Ceiling is crashing down fast.

I have the Patriots with a worst case record of 7 wins and a best case of 14, figuring on a 10 win season. Quarterback play will be a huge factor in the record. I honestly believe Mac Jones could start week one unless Newton learns how to be a consistently accurate passer and a better decision maker.

I know some are going to be like Tom Brady had a new system, didn't know the playbook, didn't have any chemistry with his pass catchers and can't be blamed for how bad he was. While Cam Newton had pretty much all the same issues and won a superbowl. Oh wait, I'm sorry, that was Brady who won the superbowl. 

Maybe he doesn't have the same football intelligence but Newton is a superior athlete to Brady. And yet Cam was still a liability to his pass catchers lack of production and his week three game versus the Raiders was awful, especially in the first half. Which is why, I don't blame covid. Cam was supposed to be an elite quarterback so all the reasons are excuses. 

If Cam was an average quarterback walking into the situation, I would accept some of the excuses as reasons. Now if anyone wants to admit Cam is below average quarterback, that 2015 was a fluke, and Cam was always an average passer at best with good legs, then maybe I can consider accepting some of the excuses but at the moment I cannot.

I mean now that the beer goggles are off, rewatch the Seattle game and you'll see the errors from him as a passer. Newton looked like the 20th - 24th passer beating up on a 32nd pass defense that had no clue how to cover anything. A week later, the Raiders exposed him in the first half. So, I don't blame covid for the struggles after catching it.

So again although the Patriots could win 14 games, with Cam at the helmet, Seven games is just as likely. Cam was re-signed to prove in the preseason that excuses for 2020 were actually reasons, plus to bring in free agents. And Brian Hoyer was signed because Mac Jones is already impressing the coaching staff. The Battle between Jones and Newton will determine if Stidham sticks around in 2021 as the backup or not. 

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