Translate

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Yes, We can be mad at Cam, Even with his statline, his production was lacking in a few key areas.

Newton went 26 of 40 for 365 and a touchdown. People are saying that with his performance, one cannot be mad at Newton. Newton's third incompletion was a bad decision and should've been picked off. 

His decision making is still not where it should be. He's a bigger turnover risk at this point of his career than Farve and Eli were. Averaging 20 a season. This is a normal statistical season for Newton. 

As for this game, to quote Doug Kyed for this game, "Separation, by the way, was not a problem." That's the thing this season, coaches tape time and time has shown Newton has pass catchers open. He either is not seeing them, throwing inaccurately or ignoring them. Look back this season, how many times was Izzo open and if Newton threw it to him, the ball was nowhere near catchable.

It was partially Newton's fault, yeah he threw for 365 but that's what teams do in losing situations. They put the ball in the air. The Patriots started the second half trailing by eleven points and trailed the entire second half. The score was 24-17 to start the fourth.

So, I disagree with not being able to blame Newton partially. I am going to break down what my issue was with the final play of the game and then other issues I have seen. 

Four seconds left in the game, the ball is inches from the Patriots 38 yard line. Newton hikes the ball from the shotgun and steps up into the pocket. Nobody is around Cam Newton, he has time and needs to put the ball into the endzone to have a chance for the win on a Hail Mary. 

Newton has all the time he needs and throws the ball from his own 34 yard line. Again Newton had about 4 more yards to step up. Izzo catches the ball at the 10 and falls forward, for a 51 yard catch. The pass traveled a total of 56 yards.

Two things bothered me on this play which fall on Cam. The first is that he had no presence of his surroundings. I'll get more into that as it was a problem during the game but he should've continued to move up.

The second was the Patriots needed him to heave the football as far as he could and he only threw it 56 yards. Newton is 31 and has a max arm of 56 yards? When Bledsoe retired at 35, he could still sling it 70 yards. Unlike 43 year old Brady, who made his money off of throwing the dink and dunk; Newton has made his money off running around and throwing the ball over defenders heads.

Okay, now that I have said what was wrong with the final play and why I blame that play on Newton, let's dive into what else I had an issue with and that is Newton doesn't have or has very little pocket awareness but it just not pocket but field awareness. Luckily, professional analysts saw issues with the same things. Phil Perry, Doug Kyed, Evan Lazar, Tom Curran, and the Patriots beat podcast to name a few.

The Texans hurried and pressured Newton and 6 of his incompletions were because of it. Twice Newton's incompletions were batted down by the guy pressuring him. JJ Watts, figured out Newton's timing and knew when to put his hands up as well.

I am sure I'm gonna beat this to a dead horse but Cam has little pre snap or pocket awareness. His field awareness isn't much better. He's been sacked 15 times this season. He's thrown 7 interceptions this season with many dropped passes. His ball security is just as bad as his awareness. If a Jets defender had more awareness, Cam would've handed the ball to him near the goal line when he stretched out.

Newton isn't making throws, especially the gimme passes. He's either inaccurate and putting them in the ground or not seeing the pass catchers. He's not making proper adjustments at the line. He's not seeing people when he goes through his reads and he's not always moving around or taking off when he should. 

He's a mirage, an optical illusion on paper. Sure we can pick a few good plays out of the limited number of them to make a highlight package to sell Newton but we have an overwhelming number of mistakes and bad plays to choose from. What he does wrong out weights what he does right.

Patriots podcast, "There's no blitz pick up before the snap, in real time Cam has guys coming into his face and he doesn't see it, he has no ware with all..." "Cam goes into a holy shit mode or doesn't see it at all that's been a problem of recognition..."

Evan Lazar, "Cam can't figure out how to handle the blitz, how to center protection properly." "90% of his issues are pretty snap, are before snap issues..." "He doesn't seem to sense that the blitz is coming right away. It's like oh, the guys right on top of me I better make him miss, right?"

"Cam Newton is not a consistent down to down thrower," said Lazar. Earlier this year, Evan had said that Newton was a "throw it and see it guy, a guy who would run around and beat you by throwing the ball over your head". That "Newton was not a timing, passing drill quarterback."

Phil Perry, " When Jakobi Meyers and Ryan Izzo are pointing at a blitzer and you still don't see it and end up getting sacked. Those are the little things with the occasional inaccurate throw, It's identifying Blitzers, it's making the check down throw..." "We see the random inaccurate throws in the short area, we see the missed protections; those things you have to have, to have success." "It's low level quarterbacking stuff that he should be able to do."

Ben Volin tweeted out that Cam Newton leads the league in batted down passes (4.8) which is hard to imagine for a quarterback of his build. 13.3 poor attempts, 33 poor throws. 30 passes defended and only 7 dropped passes. Newton has thrown 248 times. Josh McDainels is the only thing helping Newton have a 68.1 completion percentage.

I love offensive football. This for me has been one of the most boring seasons as a Patriots fan. Newton is a mobile quarterback and his option plays are so slow and the play calling is to be desired. Analysts are blaming Cam for that.

Now I've been saying McDaniels playcalling has looked vanilla since 2018. This year McDaniels is trying to mix up formations with Cam. Trying to put him under center and run with different personal. Cam doesn't seem to be able to execute. He certainly cannot drink anddrink, which is the easiest thing for a quarterback to do but Newton puts the ball into the ground. 

For a 31 year old quarterback he's playing like a sophomore. Especially having to have his throwing mechanics changed at this stage of his career. It explains why, Newton and Stidham's play has been said to be comparable this season. 

What we're seeing is expected from a second year player who's still learning with little NFL experience but not from a former league mvp. Newton is in decline and the Panthers are looking smarter and smarter for moving on.

Patriots beat podcast, " They are running a limited playbook with Cam, this is a basic offense with a trick play or two thrown in there and that's it so..." " It's his style, he's a get out there, figure it out, be Cam Newton, make it happen sort of quarterback and it really really limits the amount of things you can do..." For Cam, "The offense has to be so boring and vanilla that you can only do so much with it. That's the tough part with Newton and everyone's concern"

The Texans were a team I thought the Patriots could put up 250 yards through the air and another 150 on the ground. I expected Newton to take off a good 5 to 6 times and he only ran it 3 times. Idk if that was from the Texans playing the run or Newton just wanting to throw to save his job due to the criticism grom how bad his passing stats are.

When it comes to playcalling, Phil Perry Said Newton isn't accurate enough for McDaniels to get more agressisve. Now we've seen that all season, especially on first and second down. Perry is correct with that.

Evan Lazar said Newton has "looked sloppy and not perfect this year." Add to that how inconsistent he is. The fact that he doesn't get through his reads when he has time, that he holds on to the ball when he shouldn't, or that he doesn't see the field and runs with open pass catchers. 

Since Cam signed, he has never shown consistency enough to say he is the future. He has looked good through the air against teams he should, and the same versus teams on the ground, with exception to the Texans. This may be a one and done but if not, Cam should be off the team by 2022 at the latest.

The big thing we hear is "If not Cam, who? Stidham dosen't have any real experience and has looked comparae to Newton. We need someone better," or they say that "I'm scared to see Stidham out there because he doesn't have experience and is averaging an interception every five passes." Verses San Francisco, Newton was doing the same and  some of these people think he's the long term solution. 

Here's the thing, the Patriots are on the fringe of being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and I still think they should win their last six games. Newton's still being evaluated but I think it's safe to say he is what he is, which is an inconsistent playmaking below average passer. His analytics might be good on paper but his execution on tape doesn't agree, it doesn't match. He's ranked 13th analytically, that's still average. Average is13 to 20. He's on the verge of putting up above average stats (9-12). Anything shy of leading the team to the playoffs isn't gonna change anything at this point for Cam, as far as for the positive. Newton can hurt himself however.

Once the Patriots are eliminated and the pressure is off, it's time to play Stidham. Evaluate him properly to see what the team needs to do in the offseason. The kid missed out on the preseason games and unlike Newton, he hasn't played in 9 games to evaluate him. He's played in garbage time pressure situations where the game was still in reach and the sophomore was expected to make the comeback. Take the pressure off and see what he has. Let him regain confidence as a quarterback and find out if he still has the potential or if the organization needs to move on. 

One thing to keep in mind for those that think Newton is the future. Earlier this year he said that playing for the Patriots was a business trip and now he won't answer whether what his future is concerning the Patriots. That combination doesn't look good for plans of a resigning.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

Patriots fail to execute their 5 keys to victory vs the Texans

I expected the To lose and it to be close. 27-20 was still a close game. I gave a list of things the Patriots had to do to win.
Watson ran it 6 times for 36 yards with a long of 11. They failed to contain him. However, they held the backs to under 2 yards a carry, when they should've been focused on stopping the pass instead of the run. We've seen the Patriots let teams run wild and keep them out of the endzone. I don't get their strategy today.

Watson put up 344 yards and 2 touchdowns on this defensive unit. He completed 75% of his passes on what is supposed to be one of the better pass defending units, not their fault. The game plan was apparently to stop the run. 

The Patriots needed to run a balanced offense, they ran a 65-35 pass heavy split. They had to be able to run the football. Newton ran it 3 times averagi6 2 ypc. Harris and White ran it a total of 16 times, averaging 3.8-3.9 ypc. Burkhead averaged 1.4 yards on 4 carries before getting hurt. 

The Patriots made a grave mistake not playing Sony Michel. The Texans are a team that the Patriots should've ran around 150 yards. This proves to me that Harris should not have a lock on the number 1 spot. When Sony played the Raiders, a Team he should destroy, he did. Expect a competition going forward.

The Patriots didn't turn the ball over but they had 7 penalties for 55 yards and their special team outside of Bailey was poor today. I always expect at least an average performance from that unit. Bethel and Gunner need to be better.

The Patriots went 7 of 13 on third downs, while that's over 50%, they needed to be better today. The Patriots are not clutch on third downs. The Patriots made it into the red zone only twice. That's horrible, 50% from the redzone is again not where they needed to be but considering they only got there once, that efficiency gets a pass.

The Patriots didn't do anything I said they needed to do to win today. The Final score ends with them trailing. Newton failing to be able to throw the ball 60 yards on the final play with a with plenty of time, also hurt the team. The ball should've been near the goal line and not the 10 yard line. Newton's arm strength is gonna come into question. Newton's 31, Bledsoe at 35 could still throw 70 yards bombs.

One last thing, since the Patriots play man, if the guy the defender is covering stays in to block, his mirror has to blitz by default.

There was one bright spot. Down by seven on the final drive, During clutch time, the Patriots went to Izzo twice. Once for 9 yards and Izzo got out of bounds. The next play was a 50+ yard hail mary to Izzo. That should put the Issue of Newton liked Olsen, so there has to be something wrong with Izzo to bed. When he needed a to win, Izzo was his man but again, the ball was 10 yards shorter than it should've been so the debate is sure to continue.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Should the Patriots resign Newton

Should the Patriots extend or resign Cam Newton. This has been a highly controversial subject all season. After Newton put up 397 yards against the worst secondary in the NFL, Patriots nation was split. Half wanted to sign Cam Newton to a 5 year $200 Million dollar plus contract, while the rest wanted to wait and evaluate him.

Newton would go on to have a poor first half versus the Raiders, and the team would eventually fall to 3 and 5 on the season, largely due to how Newton is playing the position. 

He's a playmaker and is just as valuable to the Patriots as Taysom Hill but as a passer, he's one of the worst in the league. Sure he has flashes but he's been a mediocre passer. I'll talk about his pass catcher later in the article. 

So what do fans think? A poll was done of over 100 people before the game against the Ravens. Even with the win against the Ravens, I can assure people that the percentage is still pretty close to the same on the subject.
Numbers go up and down after with every win and loss but then people come around after a few days. So it's a safe bet that the numbers are still within a 10 point difference.

After the Seattle game like many, I said the Patriots needed to wait until after the Arizona game minimum before considering Newton past 2020. That's currently weeks away and now I can say they'd be better off waiting to the season plays out.

With exception to his passing & rushing touchdowns, Cam Newton's stats are on average for his career. He doesn't have Greg Olsen or top tier pass catchers but his pass catchers are there. 


What has Newton done so far? Currently the Patriots have a 4-5 record with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs. Newton as a passer has been mediocre and they need him to pick things up.
Newton was pulled versus the 49ers, in a game he was on pace for 131 yards and 5 interceptions. Newton's passing yards per game are inflated thanks to the Jets and Seahawks.

Currently the Patriots are sitting at 194.8 yards passing a game. Fourth worst in the NFL. The Patriots only two good passing games came against the 29th and 32 ranked passing defenses. 

Those two games Newton averaged 335.5 yards in the air. Against everyone else, he's averaged 149.5, which is worst in the NFL. Newton has a habit of hanging on to the ball to long, leading to 13 sacks, 1 being a strip sack and has shown he's inaccurate. That's inaccuracy led to 7 interceptions, a number of dropped picks and that 7 would've been higher if not pulled from a game with him throwing 1 every 5 attempts.

On the ground Newton has been good, which has been a double edged sword for the passing game because tape shows he'll take off with open pass catchers.
Here's something to keep an eye on. The Ravens had a good defense all around and held Cam to a 1.91 average on 11 carries but a week prior the Jets, who are one of the worst defenses held Newton to 1.60 yards per attempt on 10 carries. One of the worst defenses and Newton was stopped like if they were a top defensive unit.

The Patriots offense this season is centered around Newton's ability to run. If teams have a blueprint to stop Newton, the Patriots are in trouble. Cam Newton does not have the vision or accuracy to lead a team with his arm, without playing bottom tier defenses. 

Another area that Newton is hurting the Patriots is in the turnover battle. Not only did Newton fumble on a strip sack but as a rusher has fumbled 2 times. Surely he learned after costing the Patriots the game versus the Bills? 

Nope, against the Jets at the goal line, Newton Stretches the ball out in front of a Jets defender. If the Jets player had better situational awareness, Newton would have another fumble.

Newton is just reckless with the football and that is something the Patriots cannot seem to fix. He's on pace to match his career averages in both Interceptions and fumbles. His totals would be much higher if not from a bit of luck or bad play from opponents.

Another major issue with resigning Newton is his ability to move the offense. Not everyone is Tom Brady but Newton's stats aren't even average as a passer. Check out the teams ability to move the ball on third and in the redzone

New England is only putting up 7 in the red zone little over 50% and is completing a 3rd down conversion 4 of every 10 attempts. 

Against the winless Jets, the Patriots only went 8 of 14 and 6 of 13 against a superior Ravens' defense. If Newton was the game manager or field general that his fans say he is, the Patriots would've completed 10-12 of those third downs against the Jets. How could the Jets stop them as well as a much better Ravens sid?

Saying well if the team would've done better on first and second down doesn't help Newton's case. He is the leader and manager of the offense. That's why he was made captain. If the team isn't moving the ball, it's on him. He needs to make better personal reads and adjustments, including calling audibles.

Hell look at the tight end production, he went from targeting Izzo and putting the ball nowhere near him on plays when he was open to sliding him down to the 4th and 5th option in the progression. Izzo like other pass catchers, has been getting open according to many analysts that have seen coaches tape. Newton has to know this when watching coaches film. Yet the ball barely goes his way. 

Maybe McDaniels is calling plays were Izzo is lower in the progression on purpose. However, with the praise the offensive line is getting and how long Newton is hanging on to the ball, Newton should have time to get to the 4th and 5th progression. So it again falls back to Cam.

So what's my take on Cam Newton's contract.  As a fan, I am not excited when I seem him play. His option plays are too slow getting off, he doesn't see all the field well, he's turnover prone and leaves me more anxious than excited. 

In fact if I'm being honest, I've been bored with this offense all year. They don't bring the same excitement or energy the Ravens offense does. The Patriots were supposed to be a Ravens light this season but they look worse than the Hawaii Warriors.

Certainly Newton still has a bunch of red flags, and the Patriots don't appear to know how to address them. They've been working on his mechanics but he keeps reverting to his old mechanics, especially in pressure moments.

When watching Lamar run his offense at the speed of it and seeing how slow and clunky the Patriots offense looks when Cam is deciding on whether to give the ball up or keep it, his processor is just way too slow. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Newton is a bugger and better rusher but a less accurate and more turnover prone quarterback than Tyrod Taylor.

I am okay with letting Can walk and having a new starting quarterback in 2021. However, If the Patriots want to resign him, He's not worth more than a 2 year $34 million dollar contract at the moment. By the time the season is done, it may be less than that.

I fail to see still how anyone can be sold on him for 2021. He just hasn't done any spectacular outside beating up on 2 really bad defenses. 

What about him not having weapons? Again, the argument of not having weapons went out the window when week after week, analysts were showing that the coaches' tape has him ignoring open pass catchers.  IT'S HARD TO BE PRODUCTIVE WHEN THE QUARTERBACK FAILS TO GET YOU THE BALL WHEN YOU'RE ABLE TO GET OPEN.

Newton has been slow and average at best, with his size bailing him out. He's playing like a 31 year old running back in decline. It was said Newton has 4 or 5 years left including this season and it shows. 

Newton has shown time after time, his arm is not enough to carry a team alone as a starter, he needs his legs or to play against a poor defense to succeed. That is why I say at most extend him until the 2022 season but no further and don't give him anywhere near top twelve money.

Thursday, November 12, 2020

So I'm telling you there's a chance.

This was the one game after Brady left, that I said was a coin flip. I said if teams figured out how to slow down the Ravens' offense, that the Patriots could win.

The story now is the Patriots have no chance. That overconfidence can be the Ravens' undoing. This is Bill Belichick we're talking about, not Adam Gase.

The Patriots offense has to manage the game but more importantly, they have to play mistake free football. Drops and penalties cannot happen. 

The offense must convert on third down and must put the ball in the endzone when they enter the red zone. The Patriots must keep Bailey off the field and at minimum, Folk must walk away with points to end every drive.

On Defense, they must play like they did Kansas City. Slow down the Ravens' offense, make a couple of key stops and force turnovers. Minimum of two. 

Contain Jackson, if a guy is staying into block have the man defender blitz. Play a robber - man to man with one zone defenser in the middle and a zone defender deep. That means, they may only be rushing three or four by design.

The pats have been playing a hybrid variation of the 3-2-6 and nickle. So keep the disguise up on who's doing what. Let the adjustment come after the snap. So Lamar cannot adjust.

It's a simple but complex recipe for victory but the Patriots can do it. If 2017 Newton shows up and the Patriots are down at the half by three or more scores, don't wait until the fourth. Get Stidham in and take the pressure off of him instead of letting him come in down by 10 at the start of the fourth.

The kid has been playing equal to Newton through the air, so theirs a chance that he could play well versus the Ravens. If he's coming in thr Patriots are gonna need his arms, not his legs. Either way, if the Patriots end up down by three scores; bringing in Stidham will be the right decision.

The Patriots have probably a one in eight chance of winning the game. With nobody counting on Belichick to win, maybe the Ravens will get caught looking to their next game. Teams do it all the time and that's how upsets happen. It could happen Sunday.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Newton's entire season going back to August is and audition.

Sometime between the Patriots playoff loss and Tom Brady announcing that he was walking away from the Patriots, it was made known that the team wanted Stidham to sit and develop one more year behind Brady.

When Brady left, I started doing research on Stidham. After seeing 2018 draft projections, I understood why the Patriots drafted and wanted to develop him. I saw red flags with Cam Newton prior to signing him and believed Stidham could beat him out.

However, I also said If Newton beat Stidham out, that the Patriots wanted to develop him, so he could learn how to run behind Newton. Newton was brought in on an incentive heavy, prove it contract.

August came and reports were Newton wasn't doing anything to pull himself apart from Stidham. That he was inaccurate and was having several dropped interceptions. The Patriots went and named Stidham and Newton costarters. 

Stidham got hurt and the Patriots contributed his three days of poor play to the injury. The team was not happy about the circumstances around the injury or how Stidham handled it. 

Newton was given more snaps over the next ten days due to Stidham's injury. Newton was still inaccurate, completing 46% of 28 passes near the end of camp. However, the Patriots decided to go with Newton because he had more time with the starters and not because he outplayed Stidham.

Week one came and Stid was punished and demoted to third string for his handling of the situation in August. He would spend several weeks in Belichick's doghouse. 

Newton rushed for 75 yards but his passing yardage was mediocre. There was a lot of talk, lot of excuses that the Patriots we're working on the former MVP and 10-year veteran's throwing mechanics.

Week two, against the worst passing defense in the NFL, Cam Newton and the Patriots pass catchers put up 397 yards in the air. Newton had a dropped pick six and an interception. 

Patriots nation was calling for the Patriots to give Newton a 3 year, 100 million dollar extension. I said wait until at least the Arizona game because Newton has a history of being inconsistent. That the Patriots needed to see more. 

That if they did extended him, it should be in a two year deal because that way they have time to figure out what they wanted to do with Stidham and if he wasn't the guy; they could give Newton another extension and draft a quarterback.

Week three came and during the first half versus the Raiders, Newton looked like crap for the first four drives. Before McDaniels dialed up some plays to put the ball in the endzone.

Newton would miss week four. Stidham would earn his spot back, coming in with under 16 minutes left versus KC. The game was still in reach, Stidham put up a performance that rivaled Cam Newton's complete first half versus the Raiders.

The NFL would postpone the week five match up versus Denver, moving it to week six. Making sure that they got their ratings with a Cam Newton start.

Newton would play like garbage versus Denver. Excuses came out that he only practiced twice since week three. That didn't explain why Newton held on to the ball or took off with open pass catchers.

Against San Francisco,  threw 3 interceptions in 15 passes and was benched in the fourth for Stidham. Again Stidham's play was comparable to what Newton had done versus the Niners.

Newton would then cost the Patriots the game against Buffalo with a fumble. There was questions on who should start versus the Jets. I said as long as the Patriots are mathematically in the hunt, Newton should continue to start unless he implodes again. To play Stidham once the Patriots are eliminated.

Newton and Meyers lit up the 29th ranked passing defense that the Jets have but Newton almost gave the ball to the Jets, stretching out in front of a Jets defender near the goal line. The Defender wasn't aware enough to snatch the ball.

The Patriots went on to win the game by a field goal and now everyone is saying Cam is playing for an extension. I had been said that all season. He's never stopped playing for a contract because he hadn't earned one versus the Seahawks or Raiders.

Now take Belichick's latest comments about not having the money to sign weapons, leading to an inference that he had to sign Cam because he couldn't afford a quarterback. Then looking at the type of contract Newton signed. His entire season is an audition. Incase nobody noticed.

Did Bill say he couldn't afford a quarterback so he signed Cam Newton ?

Recently Bill Belichick had an interview where he said that the Patriots didn't have money for weapons the 2020 off season. I blew it off because the Patriots were strapped for cash.

So I was listening to some Patriots nation youtube videos and I heard what Belichick actually said, thanks to RushSports. 

Belichick talking about not having any weapons said, "look wr paid Cam Newton one million dollars. We didn't have a lot of money. It's what we done the past three years. We won superbowls, this year we didn't have a lot to work with."

The Patriots were interested in Andy Dalton and they were also probably interested in Philip Rivers, both quarterbacks were better fits for the Patriots offense.

With what Bill said, was he saying that the Patriots couldn't afford a quarterback and so they signed Cam Newton? It certainly sounded like that. Add to that, Newton has a lot of incentives if he wants to increase his pay.

If you're a Patriots fan, there's no way you haven't heard how great he is from the fan base. How he's a former MVP, former Heismann trophy winner, and former first round selection. 

After hearing how great Cam Newton supposedly is, why would Belichick sign him to a contract like that. The Newton bandwagon said "it was so they could pay him more" but after listening to Belichick, it's just as possible that Belichick had or has no faith in Newton. 

The fan base has been calling for Newton to get extended to a huge contract since week two, even after his poor performances. However, Belichick still hasn't paid Cam.

Furthermore, Newton referred to his signing in New England as a business trip. That's not something one says when they're thinking they're gonna be the franchise quarterback. 

Something is not right in Foxborough, Belichick has been uncharacteristically out spoken with praise for Cam Newton. Is Belichick trying to get to Tom or are reports about Cam being fragile true. We don't know.

Here's what I know, the Patriots wanted to sit Stidham for another year to develop but Brady messed that up. Then the Patriots got frustrated with Stidham over the Injury and everything surrounding it, which led to him being put in Belichick's dog house. 

Reports I read said Newton wasn't pulling ahead of Stidham in camp but that the loss of time to the Injury costed Stidham the starting role. Belichick has said repeatedly that Stidham looks better than he did last year. 

Last year Stidham was working with the starting unit while time would sit out practice. This year, when he has played, Stidham has looked comparable to Newton versus the Raiders and versus the 49ers. 

So how does Belichick truly feel about Cam Newton? That is the million dollar question. We don't know because everything Belichick says and does is scripted. Belichick is the ultimate professional, constantly working. He's always on and that's bad for the media and fans.

Takeaways from the Patriots Jets game

The Patriots with Glimore are only giving up 215 yards passing per game. In the one game without Gilmore, the Patriots gave up 265 yards to a team averaging 167 yards passing per game. Gilmore is elevating the play of the defensive backfield and the other defensive backs' success may just be a product of Gilly.

Jakobi Meyers had a good game but keep in mind he was going against the number 29 pass defense. The only other team the Patriots had a good passing game against was ranked 32.

Minus those two games, the Patriots passing offense isn't that good. Newton was on pace for 131 versus the 49ers and so is averaging 155 ypg, while the Patriots are averaging 158 yards per game before adding back in those two games.

The pass catchers and the quarterbacks should put up high numbers when playing the bottom 4 teams versus the pass. Thus Jakobi Meyers is not a number one but a number two and Newton against a better secondary because the Jets pass rush looked good; is still a below average passer, the only reason he is not a bad passer is because he's playing with below average pass catchers. If his pass catchers were average, he would be considered a bad passer.

The only reason his completion percentage was so high was due to play calling and the Patriots forcing him to change his throwing mechanics during his tenth season of play. The play calling is also part of why Tom Brady was so accurate for so long.

I know, how can I say Cam is a bad passer when he's rushed for 318 yards and 8 touchdowns. He's getting it done with his legs right. When's the last time a quarterback threw the ball with his legs, where the ball was at his feet and not in his hands, when he got rid of it? Probably never, unless the nfl allowed kicking back in it's early days for passing.

Thus, while having the smarts to take off when there's nobody open is a good thing. The yards due little to improve his ranking as a passer. In fact this season, Cam has taken off numerous times with open pass catchers, thus canceling out his mental bonus for taking off when nobody's open.

So to be clear, Cam is still a below average passer, Jakobi Meyers is still a number 2, and the secondary ia getting carried by Gilmore.

Friday, November 6, 2020

20 quarterbacks to watch at the start of November for the NFL draft.

It's that time of year when every professional and mock analyst start looking at the college football ranks. There was a lot of good talent that decided to return to college for various reasons after the 2019 season. 

This year covid came and completely screwed up the sports world, college football was no exception. The number of games teams have played vary from one to six, with some schools being banned from playing by their state. Thus making scouting more difficult.

Earlier to night, a sports show I watch, DPN sports talk;  asked who were the quarterbacks to watch. I pulled out my list of 40 quarterbacks from last year and looked to see who returned to school in 2020. I then looked at the stats this year and compiled 20 early names to watch going forward. 

There are going to be a couple of big names but that had nothing to do with them making the list. In no special order here are the twenty quarterbacks to watch heading into the final months of the 2020 college football season.

TREVOR LAWRENCE -Junior- Clemson 36 games, 66.5 completion on 995 attempts for 8778 yards with 83 PTDs and 14 INTs. 192 Carries for 811 yards and 14 TDs. 3 catches -4 yards 

SAM EHLINGER -Senior- Texas 42 games. 62.7 completion percentage on 1373 attempts for 10520 yards with 88 PTDs and 27 INTs. 519 Carries for 1810 yards and 32 TDs. 9 catches for 155 yards.

SHANE BUECHELE -Senior- SMU 43 games, 63.1 on 1386 attempts for 10791 yards with 80 PTDs and 20 INTs. 271 Carries for 441 yards and 7 TDs. 1 catch for 0 yards.

BRADY WHITE -Senior- Memphis 35 games, 62.6 completion percentage on 1062 attempts for 9260 yards with 79  PTDs and 25 INTs. 149 Carries for -66 yards and 6 TDs. 2 catches for 13 yards.

IAN BOOK -Senior- Notre Dame 39 games, 63.1 completion percentage on 938 attempts for 7342 with 64 PTDs and 18 INTs. 296 Carries for 1244 yards and 13 TDs.

ZACH WILSON - Junior- BYU 25 games, 66.7 completion percentage on 694 attempts for 6112 yards with 42 PTDs and 14 INTs. 183 Carries for 538 yards and 12 TDs.  2 catches for 35 yards.

JUSTIN FIELDS - Junior - Ohio State 28 games, 69.9 completion percentage on 448 for 4195 yards with 51 PTDs and 3 INTs. 200 Carries for 800 yards and 15 TDs. 1 catch for -10 yards.

MAC JONES - Junior- Alabama 23 games, 72.8 completion percentage on 331 attempts for 3822 yards with 31 PTDs and 5 INTs. 37 Carries for 19 yards and 2 TDs. 1 catch for -1 yard.

KYLE TRASK -Senior- Florida 17 games, 67.2 completion percentage on 515 attempts for 4444 yards with 44 PTDs and 9 INTs. 88 attempts for 79 yards and 5 TDs. 1 catch for 4 yards 

SAM HOWELL -Sophomore- North Carolina 19 games, 63.0 completion percentage on 598 attempts for 5487 yards with 52 PTDs and 11 INTs. 143 Carries 52 yards and 2 TDs. 3 catches for 23 yards and 1 TD.

KELLEN MOND -Senior- Texas A&M 41 games, 58.1 completion percentage on 1217 attempts for 8623 yards with 64 PTDs and 26 INTs. 392 Carries for 1393 yards and 18 TDs.

DILLON GABRIEL -Sophomore- UCF 19 games, 61.2 completion percentage on 659 attempts for 6159 yards with 50 PTDs and 9 INTs. 120 Carries for 194 yards and 5 touchdowns. 

CHARLIE BREWER -Senior- Baylor 39 games, 63.6 completion percentage on 1124 attempts for 8572 yards with 59 PTDs and 23 INTs. 385 Carries for 893 yards and 18 TDs.

BROCK PURDY -Junior- Iowa State 31 games. 65.1 completion percentage on 888 attempts for 7545 yards with 50 PTDs and 19 INTs. 236 Carries 696 yards and 16 touchdowns.

KJ COSTELLO -Senior- Mississippi St. 34 games. 63.0 completion percentage on 998 attempts for 7434 yards with 55 PTDs and 28 INTs. 112 Carries 31 yards and 3 tds.

PEYTON RAMSEY - Senior- Northwestern 33 games. 66.7 completion percentage on 1000 attempts for 6923 yards with 43 PTDs and 24 INTs. 319 Carries for 905 yards and 15 touchdowns.

KENNY PICKETT -Senior- Pitt 35 games, 60.1 completion percentage on 1025 attempts for 6965 with 34 PTD and 19 INTs. 283 Carrie's for 542 yards and 12 TDs. 2 catches for -2 yards.

ADRIAN MARTINEZ - Junior- Nebraska. 22 games 62.8 completion percentage on 613 attempts for 4678 yards with 27 PTD and 17 INT. 297 Carries for 1349 yards and 16 TDs. 1 catch -11 yards.

FELEIPE FRANKS -Senior- Arkansas
33 games 60.4 completion percentage on 781 passes for 5806 yards with 49 PTDs and 20 INTs. 247 Carries for 594 yards and 2 TDs. 3 receptions for 8 yards.

CARSON STRONG -Sophomore- Nevada - 13 games 65.9 comp percentage on 505 passes for 3516 yards with 20 PTDs and 7 INTs. 67 Carries for -79 yards.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Cam Newton is on the hot seat but there's a bigger issue with the quarterback situation.

Quarterbacks who are inconsistent or who are average passers typically aren't starters in the modern NFL. Over the history of the NFL, this has been the case for the mobile quarterback. While there have been some exceptions over the last thirty years of the NFL, for one hundred years now; running quarterbacks have struggled as passers. 

This season the Patriots went out and signed Cam Newton. A quarterback who has one MVP to his name, a total of three winning seasons and five seasons of sub par passing. 

When Newton was signed, there were three clear groups. The Newton bandwagon, the Stidham bandwagon, and the racist bandwagon. The Stidham bandwagon did little to separate themselves from the racist group, while the Newton group lumped both together and said "One must be racist to like Stidham".

Cam Newton this season has shown he can run the football. That changes things but he is not a timing quarterback. He needs elite pass catchers to thrive because he has to see an open guy before he'll throw it. The Patriots entrie system and roster is built on a timing passing game.

Newton's one good game as a quarterback came against the worst team at covering receivers and stopping the pass. Against Seattle he put up 397 yards but is only throwing 150 yards average against everyone else. On top of that, Newton has seven interceptions and five fumbles on the season. 

Newton's play as a passer has been unbecoming of an NFL starter and before one says "he doesn't have open pass catchers", that's been proven false via coaches tape. He's hanging on to the ball too long and making poor decisions.

Meanwhile Jarrett Stidham has come in twice during to pressure situations where there was still hope for a comeback but Stidham failed to lead the Patriots from behind. Stidham is getting little to no snaps in practice and is playing at an equally level to Newton as a passer.

I have said wait until the Pats lose three more games or are eliminated mathematically from the playoffs before pulling Newton for the year. Why get Cam hurt if they want to keep him, and why not use the time to better evaluate Stidham and possibly make him better trade bait.

However, there is a strong opposition to Cam getting replaced at all this season. It's seen on the television and on social media. There are those who want Cam to further his progression with the offense, which is understandable. 

Then there are those who oppose benching Cam for Stidham because it's Jarret Stidham and when they give their explanation for that reasoning, for many it's cause he's a white quarterback. The racist bandwagon is mixed in with both quarterbacks' bandwagons.

Racism is a ugly thing and regardless of who the player is, who the person is; nobody should have to experience it in 2020. This season, two of our Patriots are dealing with hate and people wanting them to be held back or fired due to the color of their skin. The Patriots locker room and fan base needs to step up and say this will not be tolerated, whether it's from the media or the public. 

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

The Patriots are better than their playing dispite Cam and the pass catchers

No excuses, not talking about the opt-outs or the free agents lost but the 53-man on the roster and the extra guys in the practice squad. The Patriots are better than they're playing. Normally excuse of guys aren't getting open would fly but thanks to NFL analyst, who watched the coaches tape, the pass catchers don't get all the blame.

Edelman is injured but is a number 2 that's been playing in the number one role almost his entire career. Harry's injured but like I said last year he's a two or three that the Patriots reached on. The rest of the receiving unit are number three or worse.

Keane looks good in his debut for the Limited usage and Asiasi has been primarily used as a blocker. As for Izzo, with how the Patriots quarterbacks are throwing him the ball, he'd have to be 7 foot 6 inches with 5 foot long arms.

Now I'm not by any means making that an excuse for the Patriots, the Patriots pass catchers are getting open but they're also struggling to get separation. 

Add to that two average passes and a sophomore quarterback with no NFL experience, who's been thrown in during two pressure situations where the team was down but close enough for comeback.

The Patriots offense is turn the ball over 15 times, 11 of those have been through the air. The 12th ranked scoring defense, which is getting a bad rep but carrying the team, has 13 takeaways.

Yet somehow the Patriots have only converted 31 of their 77 third downs and have only reached the redzone 23 times. Of those 23 trips, the Patriots have only converted 52% for touchdowns. 

So 3 of every 5 drives the Patriots are either kicking a field goal or punting the ball. Bailey has kicked 33 punts and the Patriots are ranked 29th in offensive scoring.

All the talk right now is trade the Patriots defenders, the defense is still playing at a Super Bowl caliber level. It's mainly the secondary but still. Destroy the defense to improve the offense makes zero sense.

Most non Patriots fans will agree that the Patriots have average pass-catchers. However since week three, those same fans are ask if Cam Newton's a top quarterback, than why does he need OBJ, Julio Jones, or an elite tight end; why can't he make do with an lower tier number one.

The reason is, all he's a playmaker with his legs and has arm strength, he's still only an average passer; playing like a fourth round sophomore. Hoyer isn't any better. 

Point is the pass catchers and quarterbacks are both equally to blame for the teams record. It's correctable but it's all about execution. Until Belichick fixes that, the team is going to struggle.

Monday, November 2, 2020

As long as the Patriots are mathematically still in the hunt, Cam should start due to experience and athleticism.

 So I am looking through the news this morning after midnight and come across the article "Cam Newton gives the Patriots their only chance to win" by Martenze Johnson. The headline caught my attention, so I wanted to see his opinion.

Johnson breaks down Sunday's loss to Buffalo and then follows it up by saying, "Not a soul who watched Sunday’s game could come away with the conclusion that Newton doesn’t give the Patriots the best chance to win games."

Newton was throwing the ball three feet over the head or behind and five feet in front or short of his pass catchers all game. His mechanics were horrible and so was some of his decision making. He did make a couple of good throws that were negated by penalties but the positive does not out weight the bad.

Johnson defends Newton's bad play this season. Against San Francisco, Newton threw thee interceptions, two having the balls trajectory changed by another. Johnson excuses those interceptions but puts full blame on Jarrett Stidham for the pick six that Edelman dropped into the hands of the defensive back.

Johnson makes the excuse that the pass catchers cannot get open. Several Patriots writers and analysts have debunked that as partially true. While what the networks show us, doesn't show open receivers; the coaches tap shows Newton's not hitting getting the ball to open teammates.

Johnson attacks Stidham saying he couldn't beat out Hoyer. From all accounts I read this August, Stidham looked better than Hoyer. What did Stidham in was his injury, the team was frustrated with him and he was punished for not reporting the injury and for not explaining it. The Kansas City game showed that the Patriots could not afford to keep Stidham in the doghouse. 

Furthermore, people are saying that Staham is playing equal to or just below the level Cam Newton has played at this season. What separates the two is Cam has 10 years experience, who is a see it passer and is more of a running back, whereas Stidham is more of a deceptive mobile pocket quarterback who can hit timing routes.

Yes, Stidham had thrown four interceptions in twenty passes. His time this season was in pressure situations, where the game was put on his shoulders to try and pull off the comeback. To Stidham's defense, Newton threw 3 interceptions on 15 passes versus the Niners. Again, same production.

Johnson than turns it into a racial issue. Johnson says, "Black quarterbacks, particularly Newton, aren’t given the opportunity to have a few bad games, though Sunday’s game wouldn’t be considered “bad.” Washington has beaten only the hapless Dallas Cowboys after prematurely benching Dwayne Haskins this season. The “Nathan Peterman Game” only happened because the Bills benched Tyrod Taylor. Starting Lamar Jackson over Joe Flacco in the 2018 playoffs was a mistake because the Ravens lost. If the Patriots want the best chance to win, Newton is the obvious choice. If the Patriots want to be in a position to draft their next quarterback, a 2-5 record helps that, too. If the Patriots want to see what 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham has, why sign Newton in the first place?"

I like Tyrod and can tell you that him being benched was because he was too conservative. When they put him in during that game Johnson is talking about, he almost led them back and he played a little more aggressive the rest of the season. The only reason the Bills lost in the post season that year, was because he got hurt in the playoff game.

As for the rest, Cam as a "passer" and not "running playmaker" has been below average. Look at his average yards passing excluding the Seattle game, then look at the fact he got lucky on what was a clear pick six versus Seattle if the defender doesn't drop it.  Newton and the pass catchers only had one good game, that was against the Seahawks who cannot stop the pass; which includes covering receivers. 

How many dropped interceptions has Newton had this season? He's fumbled three times and thrown seven interceptions, plus his average passing yards per game are below average; Seattle just inflated his stats. Newton is reckless with the ball. All that is where his criticism is coming from. Just the other day, I heard someone say "Hoyer was benched for less."

With Stidham playing equal to or just below Newton's level, he's sure to of made rookie mistakes but the team is just as likely to still be 2-5. So if Newton had lost the starting Job, not much would be different. 

Stidham is still making rookie mistakes, rookies are reckless and sophomores normally slump but Stidham at least sees the pass catchers, is more accurate due to mechanicss and can run, so his yards would be about equal to Newton's combined yards.

While majority of the fan base was screaming for Newton to be extended, some of the fans were saying wait because he's inconsistent. That group, myself included, wanted to see him show consistency. His first half versus the Raiders week three, showed why it was smart to wait.

To answer Johnson's question, The Patriots signed Newton because if he was still above average, they could continue to develop Stidham, who's under contract until 2022. 

Here's the thing, I agree with the headline but not for the crap Johnson wrote. Newton has ten years of experience and Belichick orginally wanted to sit and develop Stidham before Tom walked away. 

Prior to this game, I predicted the Patriots would go two and three over the next five games. So the loss was expected. The two games I see project the Patriots to win are against the Jets and Cardinals. The Patriots magic number now is three. 

Three more losses and they should be one hundred percent eliminated from the playoffs. That's when Stidham should start and gain experience. Granted, teams could play well and they could be eliminated before they can finish nine and seven. 

Unless Newton continues to struggle, he should start over Stidham, his playmaking ability with his legs and experience says so. I don't like Newton the quarterback but I respect Newton the playmaker. While I wish Stidham had started and Newton was used like Taysom Hill or even RGIII last year, Newton is the guy until he's not.