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Sunday, October 25, 2020

It was Seattle's Defense, not Newton's arm

The Seattle Seahawks would host the New England Patriots on Sunday September 20th. Seattle was coming off a game where Matt Ryan completed 37 of 54 passes for 450 yards, with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

The Seahawks would make several mistakes against the Patriots, from throwing a pick six to Devin McCourty on their third play of the game, to dropping a pick six on a bad pass from Newton. Seattle would allow the game to be closer than it actually was and almost gave the Patriots the win on the final snap of the game.

Seattle would allow Cam Newton to throw for 397 yards on 30 completions. Newton would throw for 1 touchdown and 1 Interception. Newton would also rush in 2 more touchdowns from the goal line. Although they lost, the Patriots still put up 30 on the Seahawks. 

The Seattle Seahawks have given up 368 yards passing and 28 points a game. They have the worst passing defense in the league. Even Tim Tebow could have a 300 yard game against them. 

Excluding the Seattle game, Cam Newton has thrown 155, 162, 157, and 98 yards. Getting pulled in the third quarter of the week six matchup against the 49ers. He was on pace to throw for 131 yards. 

For the season Cam Newton has 969 yards on 88 completions. Newton has thrown 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Newton has been sacked 10 times and has rushed for 5 touchdowns. He also has rushed for 244 yards. 

Taking into account that the Seattle game was inflated and adjusting, Cam Newton is averaging 193.8 yards passing per game. His career average prior to coming to New England was passing for 226 yards, 1.33 Interceptions, and 1.37 touchdowns a game. 

As a passer Cam Newton in below his career game average on passing yards and touchdowns. This is partly due to good coverage on third and fourth string pass catchers and also Newton not throwing the ball to open pass catchers. 

Newton's average season is completing 296 of  497 attempts for 3630 yards with 22 touchdowns, 12 interception and 35 sacks. While rushing 116 times for 600 yards and 7 touchdowns with 8 fumbles. 

As a passer, what we saw from Tom Brady in 2019 is a normal year for Cam Newton. With how Cam is playing unless he improves, his projected passing stats should be 2469 yards 4 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. On the ground he's projected 717 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

Obviously his projections are gonna change based on strengths of the defense. 

With exception to the seattle game, Newton is only averaging 150 yards a game threw the air. Taking into account Seattle has the worst pass defense and is giving up 368 yards per game, Newton was bound to have inflated stats versus them. 

While Cam is having a great year on the ground, he makes the Patriots passing game worse than it was in 2019. There was a narrative the Patriots would be a better team but would look worse and while Cam is helping move the ball with his legs, over his last three starts he's shown that he's running or hanging on to the ball with open targets. 

Thus where Cam Newton was supposed to make the offense better, he's actually made it worse. With Cam being the starter, his backups are getting garbage snaps in practice and it has showed on the field with his backups putting up comparable stats to Cam Newton. 

Hoyer's game was comparable to tonight's game versus the 49ers. While Stidham's games have been comparable to the first half versus the raiders, and to Newton's performance tonight. 

All three quarterbacks are passing at the same level, that's with Newton getting the bulk of the snaps for the Chiefs and Broncos game. Remember, practice was canceled after Cam got covid and the team did virtual meetings the Saturday and Sunday before the game.

Then with Gilmore and a couple other players testing positive, practice for the Denver game was canceled again until Newton was cleared to return. 

As was said versus the Broncos, practice makes a difference. If Newton is the one getting the practice reps, it means the other two are still coming in unprepared. Yet both men have slung it comparable to the former mvp. 

The Seattle game was an anomaly and the Patriots have issues at quarterback. Proving the quarterback competition between the three was legit and that the sportswriters that said Cam was the worst passer of the three may have been correct after all.

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