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Thursday, February 27, 2020

Projecting The Patriots 2020 Offseasons Moves

The Patriots have several needs going forth. How Belichick fills those holes, is going to be crucial to the team making the playoffs and staying a contender for the next several seasons. I'm gonna play GM and tell you what I think the team is going to do.

The Patriots will not use the franchise tag and will lose many of their free agents because they wanna get paid now that they have rings but Bill has a plan, that does not include Marshal Newhouse. "In Bill We Trust!"

The good new is the Patriots resign Tom Brady to a 3 year deal, worth $70 Million. This move keeps Brady happy, allows him to play to 45 and gives the Patriots spending money. The Patriots aren't done there, they resign special teams captain Matthew Slater to a 1 year, $2 Million contract, for a last hoorah.

The Patriots are also going to resign Jamie Collins to a 2 year, $7.25 Million contract with incentives. Collins is critical to the defense as he was the game changer in 2019. The Patriots struggled every since they shipped him to Cleveland, and the bend don't break defense broke without him. Belichick will try to resign D-Mac but he will ask for $9 Million plus a season before bolting to a former Patriots coach.

The Patriots will Trade Rex Burkhead to the Carolina Panthers for a 2021 sixth round pick. Carolina is looking for a number two back and Burkhead is a valuable weapon when healthy but that's the problem and why his trade value has dropped. He is not a number one but will give McCaffrey a break once in a while without causing a change in the Panthers offense. Belichick is always looking for draft capital.

The Patriots will also trade Mohammed Sanu to Buffalo for edge rusher Trent Murphy. Bill has shown he is not afraid to trade in division time after time, Just look where he sent Thomas in 2019. Over the last 2 years Murphy has 1 Interception, 60 combined tackles. 14 Tackles for loss, 18 QB hits, and 9 sacks. The 29 year old Former second round pick is in the final year of his contract and has never lived up to his draft potential. Murphy is a versatile player who can play linebacker or end. This move will not save money, however it is still a low risk move with high potential, and Belichick will get the best out of him.

The Patriots will sign receiver AJ Green to a 3 year $11 million dollar contract. Green will both be looking to show he's not done and will be chasing a ring. Green has been injured the past few seasons but when healthy is a productive top 10 receiver. In 9 games in 2018 Green caught 58.7% of his passes. He was targeted 77 times catching 46 passes for 694 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 15.1 yards per reception. The problem with Green is he missed 7 games in 2018 and the entire 2019 season due to injury. Green has been trapped in a stagnant Bengals offense and playing with Brady will revive him. He won't be Randy Moss but he will be a very productive player. At 6'4" he with a vertical of 34.5" he adds a threat on 50/50 Balls and in the redzone. Two areas the Patriots were lacking in 2019. Green also brings veteran leadership on the field and another dimension of mentorship for developing younger receivers off the field.

The Patriots are also in the market for a top tight end. Don't hold your breathe on Gronk coming back. Hooper is gonna have bids too high and I'll be shocked if Ebron takes less than $6 million a season. With that the Patriots are going to go after another player with an injury history and double dip on Cincinnati signing Tyler Eifert to a 3 year $13.5 million contract. Eifert caught 68.3% of his passes, catching 43 of 63 for 436 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also averaged 10.1 yards per catch, and is a tall redzone threat. He's not gonna be Gronkowski but he's productive and again that's what the Patriots need. This signing will see Matt Lecosse get the axe.

The two former Bengals both injury prone but are productive. If the Patriots can get three to five years out of these two guys, it will be a successful offseason. The big concern with signing first or second tier players as if late has to be them pulling an ASJ or Eric Decker and walking away after they're factored into the offensive scheme for the year.

Signed is Kareem Martin to a 1 year $1.5 million deal. Martin played in 21 games for the giants over the past two seasons. He recorded 2 passes defended, 1.5 sacks, 54 combined tackles, 6 tackles for loss and 10 quarterback hits. 6'6" 272 pounds, Martin can play the edge or be moved inside. The Giants were a dumpster fire as of late, and it's not surprising that Martin's stats reflect. Martin is a low risk High reward signing. If he doesn't work out, the Patriots will be okay.

The Patriots need to free up some cap room and will cut Jason McCourty, who will end up in Detriot, Miami, or with the Giants. Belichick has been trying to get Aqib Talib back since he left and will finally get him signed for 2 years $5 million. Talib has had health issues the past two seasons. Talib was once one of the best corners in the game and when on the field quarterbacks still don't throw to him. Over the last two seasons Talib has only played in 13 games. He had 7 passes defended, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 37 combined tackles. Talib will provide veteran experience to a young secondary.

In the mock draft, Belichick goes Jimmy Johnson crazy,  baiting and accepting trades, while fleecing the nfl.

Tennessee trades up to 23 to get Kenneth Murry, sending the Patriots round one pick 29, the 93rd pick, and 243rd pick. Miami Trades up to get Trevon Diggs at 29, send the patriots the 39th pick, 142nd pick, and pick 162. 

In round two, with the 39th pick in the draft the Falcons Trade up for Terrell Lewis, sending the Patriots the picks 47 and 55 of the draft.

With the 47th pick of the NFL draft the Patriots take receiver KJ Hamler Penn St. In his career Hamler caught 98 balls for 1658 yard with 8 touchdowns, averaging 16.1 yards per reception. Hamler also rushed 17 times for 81 yards and a touchdown. Hamler had 44 kick Reterns with a 23.5 yard average and 37 punt returns with a 6 yard average. Hamler stands 5'9" 176 pounds.  Hulking up with Edelman, wouldn't hurt. He reminds me of a faster version of Julian Edelman. He is a good route runner who can stretch the field with speed and has quickness to get separation. Teams wont want to leave him in space. The fact that he is not only a return specialist but gunner will guarentee Belichick does not red shirt him. On the down side needs to catch less with his body and to perfect blocking style. This is Edelman's replacement and if Harry Develops into the first rounder expect, this duo will give the Patriots a top 10 passing attack, as they come into their prime.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/kj-hamler/iWPvI1oACF

With the 55th pick in the NFL draft the Patriots take defensive tackle Ross Blacklock TCU. Ross is a first round Talent who has had some injuries in college, which will cause him to drop in the draft. During his career he had 67 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Ross can play tackle or edge and his versatility will allow Belichick to be creative in scheming. He is a 6'4" 305 prototype player who is fast, can change direction and can disrupt the line. He will expect a lot of double teams, and create opportunities for others. Ross is a guy I would like to see utilize stunt plays. He needs some development but should be a year one starter regardless if it's a 34 or 43. Ran a disappointing 4.90 - 40 at the combine

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/ross-blacklock/t7ydLnDRk4

With the 87th pick of the draft in third round the Patriots select Interior offensive lineman Jonah Jackson Ohio State. Jackson stands 6'4" 310 pounds. With the loss of Thuney and Karras, plus uncertainty with Andrews, the Patriots need a guy who is ready to start on day one if needed. He is a zone blocker who can pass block and even pull as a guard. He will even move downfield to pick up blocks. He can shift from side to side as the pocket moves, is very athletic and will be an anchor for the line and could push Andrews out the door in a few seasons. In year one expect him to sit behind Froholdt and Andrews, unless he has a good camp. Ran a 5.23 - 40 and 7.83 - 3cone at the combine.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jonah-jackson/31Cm72gd0b

With the 93rd pick of the draft in the third round Patriots Select Tackle Calvin Throckmorton Oregon. Throckmorton is another steal for Belichick. Standing 6'5" 310 pounds, Throckmorton can play anywhere on the line and will prevent the Patriots from having to deal with another 2019 offensive line problem. Ben Martin his assistant coach said Throckmorton "knew the playbook better then he did." New England has a complicated playbook and needs intelligent players. Throckmorton only allowed one sack in his last thirty one games, he's agile and is a decent run blocker. While Cajuste will be the Patriots new swing tackle and should challenge for the starting right tackle role, Throckmorton will be a solid core depth piece and could be developed into a future starter. Ran a 5.57 - 40 and 8.07 - 3 cone.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/calvin-throckmorton/21GAmJvnAI

With the 97th pick of the draft in the third round the patriots select Tight End Albert Okwuegunam Missouri, who is not only underrated but I believe the best tight end in the draft. Standing 6'5" 255 pounds he is a freak. In his 3 years he caught 98 passes for 1187 yards and 23 touchdowns, averaging 12.1 yards per catch. Albert can line up in the backfield as an H-Back(FB), Play out wide or line up in the traditional spot. He will bully defenders at the line and down field. He can run the seam routes, go up for jump balls and is faster than one would expect for tight ends, running a 4.49 at the combine. While he needs some fine tuning with his blocking and route vision, he will win contested catches, split the seam, draw double coverage and be a dangerous redzone threat. Tom Brady has been searching for a new security blanket and the Patriots got him one. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/albert-okwuegbunam

https://youtu.be/shGgnnVmF50

With the 99th pick of the draft in the third round the Patriots select nose guard Davon Hamilton Ohio State. The Patriots have been looking for someone who can replace Big Vince Wilfolk and finally found him, standing 6'4" 327 pounds. During his career Hamilton produced 66 combined tackles, 20 tackles for loss and 7 sacks, 3 fumble recovers and 1 touchdown. Hamilton is a pocket disruptor. Hamilton won't get a lot of sacks but he will plug holes and force double teams, along with Blacklock, allowing a free run at the quarterback and giving the patriots a dangerous pass rush. Hamilton is athletic enough that although he is built for a 34 nosed guard, he can be moved around in a 43, 52 or 7 diamond scheme. Ran  5.14 - 40 at the combine. Hamilton's best value maybe when it comes to goaline stops. Hamilton could use to learn better technique with his hands and with Belichick, he could be a name in the league before his rookie contract is up. With Blacklock, Hamilton and the updated linebacker core from this draft, the Patriots could run a base 2-4-5 nickel.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/davon-hamilton/0rMLfjtcnZ

In round 4 the Jaguars trade back to get C Keith Ismael at 122nd sending the Patriots picks 113th, 189th and 206th for patriots picks 122nd and 162nd.

The Jets trade up to 113 for Saahdiq Charles sending the Patriots picks 117 and 158.

With the 117th pick the Patriots select quarterback Jalen Hurts Oklahoma. Standing at 6'2" 218, Hurts completed 682 if 1047 passes with 65.1 completion percentage. He threw for 9477 yards, with 80 touchdowns and 20 Interceptions finishing with a 162.2 rating. Jalen also rushed for 614 times, for 3274 yards and 43 touchdowns. He ran a 4.59 at the combine, He's not Lamar Jackson but maybe Randell Cunningham or a better version of Tyrod Taylor. Like another quarterback back in Patriots history, Hurts was told he wasn't good enough and kept being pushed down and having to prove people wrong. Hurts went 38-4 as a starter. That will be what drives Hurts. He could use to sit a behind Brady and develop. He is a dangerous drink and dunk quarterback, willing to take what he is given but gets periods were he tries to force the deep ball.. Although he is a scrambler who occasionally doesn't trust his o-line, he will stay in the pocket with a defender barrelling down on him to put an accurate pass where only his receiver can get it. He has great arm strength and can use to improve his Mechanics to add better release time and more power. People question his deep ball accuracy. In New England that won't be a problem, and when he gets a guy deep, his target will come down with the ball because the team isn't a deep ball team. This is the perfect marriage as long as Brady comes home, and will set the Patriots up to be successful for another decade. Not to mention a quarterback battle between Stidham and Hurts would help both. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jalen-hurts/QPdYkyDT0T

With the 142nd pick of the 2020 NFL draft the Patriots select Tight End Jacob Breeland Oregon. Breeland is a steal at pick 142, standing 6'5" 250" pounds. Breeland finished with 74 receptions for 1225 yards averaging 16.6 yards per catch and 16 touchdowns. Breeland suffered a leg injury in 2019 which hurt his ability to show scouts his true capabilities. Like Okwuegunam, Breeland can be lined up anywhere. While not as good of an athlete, he is a solid blocker and will again come down with contested catches and be a good redzone target. Breeland has a large catch radius, soft hands and is good at getting yards after the catch. The Patriots would be smart to let him run the underneath slot routes and let Okwuegunam take the deeper routes. Breeland can use some development and there's worry about his speed but by the 2021 season, the Patriots could return to their two tight end offense if they so desired.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jacob-breeland

With the 158th Pick of the NFL draft the Patriots select receiver Quartney Davis Texas A&M. Davis is a tall receiver at 6'2" 200 lbs. During his two year career he totalled 99 catches, 1201 yards with 12.1 yards per catch and 11 touchdowns. He also rushed for 45 yards in 8 carries. In 2019 he returned 1 punt for 12 yards. Davis is a quick route runner who can stretch the field from anywhere on the field. At the combine he had a 4.54 40 speed and a 35.5" vertical.  Davis is quick and agile but suffered from having sub par quarterbacks. The Patriots will like the fact he is used to jet sweeps and will lay himself out to block. He would be a number one in development on any other team but will be a dangerous 3 or 4 in New England and could push Meyers down or off the roster. His draft stock was also hurt by an injury and only two years of play. This could be a player Belichick redeems himself on at the position.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/quartney-davis/mOZwxOtVHi

With the 189th pick the Patriots select tight end Cheyenne O'Grady Arkansas. The only reason O'Grady is not a 3rd or 4th round pick is due to off field issues. O'Grady is again just a hair behind Breeland. Like the other two he is an decent blocker who can play any of the three tight end positions. He is a combination of strength and quickness to surprise defenses. He will battle with Izzo for the number 3 spot and like Okwuegunam and Breeland, provide depth at fullback. He will be good running flats, drags, Wheel and curl routes. Standing 6'4" 256 pounds, In his career he totalled 87 catches for 967 yards. Averaging 11.1 yards per catch and 12 touchdowns. He also had 1 carry for 3 yards in 2019. In the combine he ran a 4.81 and had a 7.3 cone drill, with a 34" vertical. Belichick will have to fix his technique and where he places his hands while blocking. He will also need to learn to sell his routes better but his soft hands will make him worth it. The Patriots could decide to keep all 4 tight ends and bring back their 4 tight end set.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/cheyenne-ogrady/eHguo6g2zU

With the 195th pick the Patriots Select Defensive back Levonta Taylor Florida State. Standing 5'10" 190 pounds. Taylor defended 10 passes and had 4 Interceptions for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He also had 90 tackles, 1 sack, 5.5 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. Former 5 star recruit, He converted to Safety. Been praised for his footwork and plays well in the zone. Can catch up to the homerun play and prevent a score. During his college career, teams didn't pick on him due to his athleticism and ability to jump the pass. Good at blitzing and analyzing routes. He will be a good fit in Belichick's system and with both McCourtys and Bethel and Ebner gone, he provides much needed depth and is project as a nickel back. If he needs some development but hadn't had a back injury the Patriots don't get him as he goes higher up.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/levonta-taylor/AbKFNc2AsV

With the 204th pick the Patriots select linebacker Markus Bailey Purdue. A Smart and athletic 6'1" 240 pounds. He had 324 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks, 6 interceptions, 6 passed defensed, 1 forced fumble and 2 fumble recoveries. The Patriots need to plan for the future and this future defensive captain is a start. With loss of Roberts and Van Noy, Bailey while not the best linebacker drafted by the Patriots, he is going to be around for a while. His versatility to play at the edge, to cover underneath receivers, or to play any linebacker position makes him valuable. He can read the play and seems to know where to go. He's a good run stopper who's better in zone coverage. He is also gonna contribute early in special teams. Bailey follows a pattern of draft picks falling due to injury.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/markus-bailey/OtGYSwyJNA

With the 206th pick the Patriots select linebacker Justin Strnad Wake Forest. This might be the most underrated player in this draft at the position.  Team Captain standing 6'3" 235 pounds, Strnad could use ten pounds. An intelligent, athletic linebacker with speed, that reminds me of an under developed Jamie Collins. He will be used all over the field, and could be the eventual successor to Boomtower. He is always running, and has the brains to back it up. He can analyze plays quickly and has a nose for the football. He can Cover, Blitz or just be a decoy causing havoc. His problem is he's small, can fall for double moves, played for a smaller school, and was taken out by a bicep injury. Don't be surprised if he is the Patriots next acrobatic kick blocker. In college he produced 244 tackles, 22.5 for loss. 8 sacks, 4 Interceptions. 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and three recoveries. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/justin-strnad/wIIAlTsmNq

With the 212th pick the Patriots select Safety Julian Blackmon Utah. 6'1" 204 pounds. In four years he totalled 154 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 8 interceptions for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. 20 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles. A former corner who can find a way into Harmon's deep safety role, when developed could be a future starting free safety. Was a top 5 free safety in 2019 according to PFF who rated him 89.8. He can read a defense and cover tight ends. Needs to work on his point of attack and decision making. Had a knee injury near the end of his career. He is a low risk, high reward pick.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/julian-blackmon/Q5viT1WLPL

With the 213th pick the Patriots select edge rusher Trevis Gipson Tulsa. 6"4" 268 pounds. Gipson recorded 114 tackles, 25 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. He also defended 3 passes and had 8 forced fumbles. Gipson is a developmental player who can be effective early on as he is an anchor on the edge and doesn't let players around him. Highest-rated AAC EDGE run-defender in 2018 according to PFF. He needs development on his pass rushing coming off the edge, some hand placement and some fundamentals. He will probably be a practice squad special teamer unless he can impress with his development.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/trevis-gipson/EMPCyH2IFo

With the 230th pick Patriots select linebacker Mohammed Barry Nebraska, 6'1" 245 pounds. Another athletic inside linebacker with a high motor, to add speed and quickness to the depth chart. He will play sideline to sideline. Will shut down the run. Needs work on his man coverage but can cover running backs and tight ends. Needs development change of direction as well and he gets too aggressive in pursuit but otherwise can do almost everything. Should earn a spot on special teams, he could sneak in on year one. In college he had 245 tackles 14.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 2 passed defended, 2 fumble recoveries. 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mohamed-barry-1.html

With the 235th pick the Patriots select defensive back Jaron Bryant Fresno State. Another safety in corner's clothes. Compiled 178 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 6 Interceptions for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery. He relys on instincts, and tends to watch the quarterback's eyes jumping the receiver to the ball, which can lead to giving up big plays.  He's better in zone than man. He can play press coverage adequately but his skills and abilities as a safety prospect make him too hard to pass on. He could be a good Nickleback.A candidate for a redshirt year.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jaron-bryant/qgtjhL3i1N

With the 241st the Patriots select kicker Radrigo Blankenship Georgia. Made 82 of 97 with a percentage rate of 82.5 on field goals, 92.7 under forty yards and was perfect on extra points. Supposed to be the top kicker in the league but I still like Johnathon Song. Blankenship will be one of four kickers the Patriots bring to Try out If Gostkowski is not ready to go or is unable to perform, expect a hard fought kicking competition, and possibly a new kicker come week 1.

With the 243rd and their final pick Patriots take running back Malcolm Perry Navy. While he played Quarterback in 2019 and many scouts see him going as a wide receiver, I think he will follow Danny Woodhead and be a running back whom he will replace Brandon Bolden as the teams utility and special team's back. He's built like a running back and there's a question about his ability to seperate. Perry is 5'9" 190 pounds, I'd like to see him bulk up to 205-210. His three cone is going to be great as he's very agile. While his passing numbers weren't anything to brag about, his threat with his legs and his ability to catch make him dangerous. As a quarterback, he's like a C rate version of Lamar Jackson. He rushed 613 times for 4359 yards and 40 touchdowns, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. He can line up in the slot and had 22 catches for 470 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is even said to be able to return kicks. Ran a 4.63 - 40, 7.12 - 3 cone, and has a 36" vertical. What I like about him is his ability to change Direction and throw in the run. The patriots haven't had a back that excelled at running the counter since Woodhead. While he's not going to be the quarterback, the threat of him running pitches and having the option to throw will cause defensive mismatches and create chunk plays. If the Patriots wanted to run the Patriots special, Brady would have a more accurate person throwing him the ball. Defense will now have to worry about the possibility of two other players not Named Brady on the field that could throw. Having emergency depth at quarterback, also doesn't hurt. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.patspulpit.com/platform/amp/2020/1/20/21067124/2020-nfl-draft-scouting-report-navy-malcolm-perry-new-england-patriots

The Patriots sign Undrafted free agents: Kicker Johnathon Song TCU, Kicker Jake Koehnke Air force, Kicker Sam Sloman Miami OH, RB - Tra Minter South Alabama, RB - Art Thompkins UConn, KR/PR/WR - Receiver Joe Reed Virginia, ST-Gunner/WR - Tyrie Cleveland Florida, IOL - Darryl Williams Mississippi, DT -  Tyler Clark Georgia, DT -  Benito Jones Ole Miss.

Camp Battles
Kicker, fullback, Right Tackle, Left Guard, Number 3 Tight End, Utility RB, DB, Backup QB.

If the Patriots cannot find Brady's successor it won't matter who they Bring in. The team will be as good as when Cassel was the Quarterback. Here I laid out a blue print that allows the Patriots to build for the future, while at the same time retooling to stay a contender until  after the 2022 season. There's a lot of projected late round - UDFA sleepers but that's where Belichick excels.

All stats from https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/

https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/sharedraft.php?d=mftfma#.Xldty6RtDhM.twitter

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