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Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Joe Was Great But Brady Was Better.

I loved watching Montana play but over his 16 seasons, he did not play in 64 games including the 1991 season. Over that time Joe had a record of 117-47. He also went 16-7 in the post season, including four super bowl wins. Montana led the 49ers to the playoffs 11 times over that span.

Brady has played lower but let's compare the two.
Brady sat his first season and missed the 2008 season. The makes up for Montana's 91 and 92 seasons. Over Brady's first 16 seasons he missed 31 games.

Regular season games missed over first 16 seasons:

Montana: 64
Brady:       31

Regular season record: 

Montana: 117-47
Brady:       172-50

Post season appearances

Montana: 11
Brady:       13

Posy season record:

Montana: 16-7
Brady:       22-9

Superbowl appearances (can't win a ring if you cannot get there):

Montana:      4
Brady:            6

Superbowl record:

Montana:     4-0
Brady:           4-2

Playoff TD-INT ratio

Montana: 45-21
Brady:       56-28

MVP:

Montana: 2
Brady:       2

Regular Season Yards:

Montana: 40551
Brady:      58,028

Regular season passing TDs to INTs

Montana:    273-139
Brady:          426-150

Rushing / receiving TDs to Fumbles:

Montana: 20-53
Brady:      19-106

Fourth quarter comebacks:

Montana:  26
Brady:        31

Game winning Regular season drives:

Montana:  28
Brady:        39

Brady fumbled the ball more but he did everything better including make Superbowl appearances. It was Montana's job to help lead his team to the Superbowl and he could only it 4 times. And to those who say it takes more than one player to get there, it also takes more than one player to win a Superbowl. Which nullifies the arguements.

I'm sorry, no disrespect to Joe but Brady beat him but all on one important stat. And that was Fumbles. Give me Brady in the big game.

Stats from Pro Football reference 

Thursday, July 7, 2022

Former New England Patriots Quarterback And 2015 MVP May Not Be Done

Cam Newton as a starting quarterback should be done in the NFL. Currently Player Profiler has  Newton as the 36th best quarterback in the NFL. Newton in 2021 only played in five games but did not look like he still had it. Newton had a true completion rate of 57.5 and a true passer rating of 57.1 not good numbers.

With Cam struggles as a passer, which again saw him throw more Interceptions than touchdowns, it safe to say he probably will never start again but that doesn't mean he's done. He is still a weapon for teams if he's willing to take lesser money to play that way.

In 2021 Newton ran the ball 47 times for 230 yards and 5 touchdowns.  That makes Newton a weapon. We have seen teams use backup quarterbacks like Taysom Hill or RGIII out of position. If Newton was willing to line up out of position on occasion, he could be a threat. This could extend his playing career but it could also see him get hurt.

NFL teams and Cam Newton have aot of thinking to do when it comes ro Cam. If a team wants to use Newton this way, they have to seriously talk with Newton about expectations and Newton has to realize that his big money days are done. Newton should keep the arena league open as an option. But he has the personality for an NFL sports program.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

List of Unanswered Patriots questions will be updated periodically

List of questions about the Patriots 
June 21, 2022

- Why are the Patriots keeping Nordin on the IR?

- With Smith expected to be the H-back and Henry playing inline, how many tight ends will they keep?

- How much does Harry's salary impact the decision of cutting him?

- Who are the remaining top 5 big name free agents that the Patriots that the Patriots shouldn't over pay for?

- With the Patriots expected to run more nickel and dime defense then before, how many linebackers do they actually need on the 53?

- Was the Problem with the 2021 defense Steve B. , failure to get the players ready, or too many voices?

- Is Steve Belichick finally okay to be considered as a candidate to replace his dad or even though he's spent a decade on the coach staff would it still nepotism?

- Do The Patriots really need to name someone the O.C. and D.C or are those just titles for the fans to have someone to scream at?

- Are the Patriots slowly moving towards a three down dime?

- Do The Patriots have the replacements for D-Mac and Slater in waiting?

- Should the Patriots bring back Agholor in 2023 if he has the same production this season as in 2021?

- How secure is the Patriots interior line against the run?

- Is there anything wrong if Mac turns out to be a game managing system quarterback if he continues to be as productive as he was in 2021?

- Should the Patriots use the throw back uniforms for away games and keep the flying Elvis for home?

- Any chance we see both Smith and Keene in the backfield at the same time this season?

- Are Patriots fans undervaluing Jakobi Meyers?

- Is this Isaiah Wynn's last season in New England?

- How good of receiver's coach has Troy Brown been?

- Will Hoyer be involved in the game planning due to his knowledge of the offense?

- Will the Patriots let Hoyer finish out his contract or will they try to force him into a coach position?

- With James White back, who is plan B as the receiving back?

- Pros and cons with signing OBJ?

- Will the Patriots have a set CB1 or will they run outside corner by committee?

Monday, June 13, 2022

Tre NIxon Had A Standout Spring But With A Spotlight Comes Great Expectations.

A few weeks ago I wrote that Jack Jones would be the most impactful rookie of the 2022 class. I also wrote that the receivers and corners still had questions to answer. After the spring camp session, there is another player to keep an eye on. It's not a rookie but a practice squad guy who had a solid spring. That guy is known as the Ernie Adams pick. I'm talking about Tre Nixon.

Nixon stands around 6'1" and reportedly weights around 185 pounds. Nixon started at Ole Miss as a four star recruit but transfered to UFC for playing time. In the FBS Nixon caught 109 of 126 targets for 1,671 yards with 35 first downs and 13 touchdowns. In 2018 UFC also had Nixon field one kickoff return. In the 2021 preseason, Nixon only managed 2 catches for 11 yards.

Nixon suffered a shoulder or collarbone injury his final season which likely caused his draft stock to fall. He is a stretch receiver who should excell as a deep slot although he can play the outside as well as the X. He runs in the 4.40s and had a decent 6.81 three cone. He had the talent entering the NFL to become a depth piece, nobody argued that but the concensus was he needed development and a vertical spread offense.

Evan Lazar wrote in May of 2001, "There’s enough explosiveness in Nixon’s movements to suggest that he can separate at the NFL level, but he’ll need to finish the play more consistently to stick around."

Nixon made several plays during the 2022 minicamp sessions, including two fifty yard catches beating Jonathan Jones. And there has been a big deal made about the appearent chemistry with franchise quarterback Mac Jones.

Nixon said, "“I feel like the biggest thing is this be where my feet are at. I know training camp’s around the corner, and I like to just stay present in the moment, just try and make my own role what I can do. It’s easy to, especially in this league, compare yourself to other people or count numbers. One of the biggest things the older guys tell me is to be your own person. Try and make your own role and see what you can do beyond that.”

Nixon has put a spotlight on himself but with that spotlight is going to come a lot of pressure when the Patriots meet up later this summer. We have seen players excel without the pads before. Almost everyone fell for Maurice Harris who had a lights out spring few years back before falling off in the preseason. Nixon will have to show he's not just a spring star but a true NFL receiver.

One quick mention. Nixon’s teammate Jack Jones whom I predicted to be the most impactful rookie, showed up this spring and gave enough effort to put his name in the mix for one of the two starting outside corners. He will need to step up his game as he will have competition but so far he has lived up to expectation. If the Patriots have found their outside guy, they are better off defensively then orginally expected and that could translate into wins. Just another name to watch when the team meets up in a few weeks.

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Need A New Excuse For Why Patricia Cannot Coach The Offense.

There has been concern about how Matt Patricia can coach the offensive line and call plays on game day. People have said it makes more sense for Joe Judge to do it since he'll be working with Mac Jones during the week. Mike Lombardi spoke about the subject on The GM Shuffle. While Mike is one who doesn't get it, he basically explained how to make it work.

The first issue people are having is with Patricia not being there during the weekly practice next to Jones. Saying he will not be able to find out what Mac likes or doesn't like. What Mac's comfortable with and what he's not. This problem is solved by having a small meeting with the two after each practice. It doesn’t have to be a long meeting, just long enough to have the conversations. Patricia can also have those meetings with Judge if need be. It requires more time to have these meetings but it solves the problem. 

The other issue people are coming up with is how can Patricia call the plays and coach the offensive line. The answer to that is really simple. During the week Matt would work with the line with assistant Billy Yates. Then on Sunday, Yates would handle the line while Patricia deals with play calling. Then when the opposing offense is on the field, Patricia can relay anything he sees to his line. 

People are acting like it's rocket science. It's not that hard of a concept to grasp. This is actually a really simple thing to figure out. And Bill Belichick likes intelligent coaches. I think the main thing people have an issue with is the former offensive line assistant that turned defensive coordinator is now going to be the offensive coordinator or play caller. Remember, if Matt Patricia didn't know anything about offense, he wouldn't of known what defense to field to stop it.

Ask yourself this, how many times did you see Patricia bring out the jumbo or goaline defensive versus the shotgun. If you cannot remember him doing that, it's because that's something someone who knows nothing about offense might do. Patricia has been around a while and also knows how to study offense. While he might not be a top 16 coordinator in 2022, he'll be worthy of one of the 32 positions in the league if he is indeed the play caller for the Patriots in 2022.

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

What does an okay offense look like for Judge or Patricia?

There does not appear to be any change on the Patriots second mandatory day of June camp. There's still talk about play calling coming from the media. Josh McDaniels left for the Raiders and before the team has played one meaningful snap in 2022, people are already being smug giving an "I told you so" response on how import McDaniels was because the Patriots didn't bring in an offensive coordinator and instead appear to be running with two former NFL head coaches.

People are saying that Patricia and Judge are bums because they failed as head coaches. That's what was said about Belichick after his stint in Cleveland. "But Belichick won rings with the Giants." Yeah, and Patricia and Judge won rings with the Patriots. Yes Matty P. is known as a defensive coach but he has coached on offense before and one has to know something about offense to stop it. Judge has also coached a little on offense and is a former quarterback. What now?

Now that we've got semantics out of the Way. Since people don't have faith in either Judge or Patricia's ability to play call, what defines a successful first year as an NFL offensive play caller for those two? In 2022 McDaniels's offense had the following stats.

489 runs for a 4.4 yard average with 138 first downs and 24 touchdowns. The passing game completed 68% of the passes for 3857 yards with 187 first downs, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. 

If the running game slips to what it produced in 2019, would it be a success or failure for Judge or Patricia? In 2019 the Patriots ran the ball 447 times for a 3.8 yard average with 110 first downs and 17 touchdowns.  The Patriots running backs are the same level if not better heading into 2022 compared to what they had in 2019. I get there were other factors to that season but McDaniels is supposed to be that much better than Judge and Patricia.

If the passing game slips to where it was in 2020, again would that be a success or failure for Patricia or Judge? I get Cam Newton was the quarterback in 2020 but with how incompetent people are making Judge and Patricia sound, it should be balanced out as Cam had McDaniels and these guys have Mac. In 2020 the Patriots completed 64% of their passes for 2890 yards with 157 first downs, 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Again, I get there may have been circumstances that season but McDaniels is supposed to be superior to Judge and Patricia so it doesn't matter what happened in 2020.

People are expecting the Patriots offense to regress without an experienced offensive coordinator. Since some of the personell is the same, both stat lines I shared from 2019 and 2020 would be a regression. So what qualifies as a successful offense in 2022 for the Patriots? Where's the bar at for this offense, what should we expect?

Before anyone says Judge and Patricia will have a bad year, we need to know what an average year is considered to be for them. So tell us, what is the criteria for an okay season. Not good, not bad but okay. If you cannot do that, then it's gonna have to be drastic reduction in all aspects of the offense for those two to have a bad season. However if the offense gets the same production it had in 2021, those two would've had a great season with how bad they're being made out to be.

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Mandatory Camp Is Underway For June 2022.

The Patriots met up for the first day of mandatory training. A few players weren't there but nobody for the most part was missed. Of course the media per usual was hyping up some if the players, it's kinda their job. However, some noted things other members weren't.

Zack Cox had Mac Jones with an Incredible day. Greg Bedard said there were passes Jones got off after the defense was yelling sack. It's things like that, that really make judging these stories out of camp hard. We have to remember, the defense is severely handicapped with these practices.

The Patriots moved around the line switching Wynn and Brown. There was some confusion as to why, with several speculating that it was because the Patriots were trying to move Wynn. NBC Boston's Perry and Curran suggested it was to "bring balance to the line." Either way it was different and was noticed.

Matt Patricia may or may not be the head play caller. The guy was a defensive coordinator. So he has to know something about offense. I mean, we don't really think he was paid for years to be a defensive coordinator with no idea how offenses worked, do we? I get calling an offense and knowing how to prepare to stop one are different but if he knows what teams call in specific situations, he should be able to make those same calls. So we shouldn't be too worried.

Tre Nixon appears to be this year's Maurice Harris or N'Keal Harry. He looked good today against the handicapped defense. We'll see how he looks come the preseason. For now, he made his name known. Other than that, Jake Bailey showed why he's worth 4 million dollars and showed he's leaps a head of the other guy on the team. Really wasn't much to write home about for this day of practice. And it probably will stay that way until they break.

Friday, June 3, 2022

Receiver and Corner Still Have Questions To Be Answered.

There are three positions I still think we need to pay attention to. The stretch receiver role and both outside cornerback spots. The Patriots have pieces but they have just as many questions about those positions. The good thing is we should get to see them at the same time. So making the evaluations should be that much easier. Hopefully answers come sooner than later.

Cornerback 
J.C. Jackson is gone but Myles Bryant and Jalen Mills are still with the team. On top of that The team brought in Malcolm Butler and drafted Jack Jones. I have not seen Mills's or Bryant's name talked about a lot yet but Butler and Jones's name have been brought up as possible starters in either the number one or number two corner role.

With mandatory camp coming, the media will get a picture of what's going on. Will it be like 2021 where they ignored Mac's training and only saw Cam with the first string or will they see the entire picture? Honestly, the Patriots had a number two corner by committee in 2021 as nobody truly stood out and both outside corner spots maybe by committee in 2022.

Stretch receiver
Nelson Agholor was brought in with big expectations from the media and fans. Some thought he would be a thousand yards receiver and were disappointed in Agholor's production. People failed to see that Agholor's production also came by running sprints and drawing coverage away from the underneath guys. The most of the few who do recognize that think anyone can lore the safety into coverage. As Patriots fans, we know that's not the case.

The Patriots had Philip Dorsett who ran a 4.33 forty time, just a hair faster than Agholor and Dorsett didn't draw coverage the way Agholor does. People assume that Tyquan Thornton can just be a plug and play will do that. We have not seen what Thorton looks like in an NFL uniform. And a lot of players with speed look good in college. If the Patriots get rid of Agholor and Thorton turns out not to be the downfield threat fans want, then defenses are going to come up like they did in 2020. 

The other thing to consider is some believe Thorton to be a deep slot guy and not an X receiver. Yes, the Patriots have parker but is Parker going to be flanker or the X in the Patriots system? IF Parker is a Z receiver and Thorton turns out to be a deep slot, who's playing the X if Agholor goes, Harry? Bourne? Meyers? Henry? At the moment, It makes sense to keep Agholor for the 2022 season or at least until the trade deadline.

Thursday, May 26, 2022

Where is Mac Jones Ranked?

Mac Jones was said to be the most NFL ready quarterback entering the draft. There were disputes on whether he was a first or second round prospect, with those who said he was the latter saying "Mac's only going in the first due to lack of talent." The way he was talked about it was reasonable to think Mac would be a bottom of the barrel starter, someplace in the 25-32 range. Mac exceeded that tier.

At the end of the season, depending on what site was looked at, Mac Jones was ranked as an average quarterback. Some place between 14-18. Looking at NFL.com on February 16th, they had Mac as the 16 ranked quarterback. The dead average position for a starter. That's not bad after a rookie season and it shows that when it's said that his ceiling is low, it's because he's so much closer to it than the other guys that came out with him. 

Mac Jones's 67.6 completion percentage was the 8th best a starter, he was 13th in yards with over 3800. Mac's 4.2 touchdown percentage was 16th among starters. He only had a 2.5 interception percentage which was 20th. Now some of these areas are tied to his talent around him, I get it but the Patriots did improve that talent this off season.

Mac only had one 4th quarter comeback and that was his only game winning drive, which had him ranked for 21st. That is one of the best ways to determine how good a quarterback is. The problem is not every quarterback that is good or elite finds themselves having to pull their team out from a loss. Not every good quarterback has to have game winning drives or 4th quarterback comebacks.

So we're forced to go off stats and opnion based off what is seen. Mac doesn't have the experience of other quarterbacks, so that may influence some of what we see. I am going to put the quarterbacks into three tiers. Those that are better than Mac, those that are close to equal and those that are worse. Since modern quarterbacks rely on their legs, some quarterbacks maybe ranked better then expected. This will be my opnion based off of 2021.

Brady, Allen, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Burrow, Mahomes, Murray, Hurts are better than Mac. I have seen people knock Murray but he ran for 429 yards and 5 touchdowns. NFL.com has Murray ranked as the 8th best and he should definitely be a top 10 due to his legs. The same with Hurts. Watson is not being added until I see that he will be cleared to play but, he would be in this tier.

My first tier only had 9 guys excluding Watson, meaning some of these guys are borderline top 10 and some are borderline basement guys. Prescott, Carr, Wilson, Tannehill, Cousins, Jackson, Ryan, Bridgewater, Wentz, Garoppolo, Golf are all equivalent to Mac Jones as of the end of the 2021 season. Some of those guys again were products of their team or talent around them, I get that but based off of everything, this is the group Mac finds himself around. These are average guys. They are above average to average game managers. These are system quarterbacks.

Winston, Tagovailoa, D. Jones, Mayfield, Heinicke, Fields, Hill, Mills, Lawrence, Lance, Darnold, Newton, Dalton, Taylor, Rudolph, Wilson, Trubisky, Pickett, Mariota, Fitzpatrick. These are the below average game managers. They can barely do what's asked and cannot carry a team. Some are in development and others are on the way to holding a clipboard. There maybe some other's I've missed that belong with these guys.

NFL.com had Mac Jones ranked 16th, I think that's a fair spot to start the 2022 season. With the coaching situation, Mac is going to have to be extra to improve from that rank. Mental breakdown is the only way I see Mac digressing. Mac is in development still, so middle of the pack is where he should start and a fringe top 10 is where I expect him to crack by season end. I don't know if he'll ever crack the top 10 but the fringe should be reachable for him. 

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Where do the Patriots rank?

The NFL released the league power rankings. I'm a believer that one has to start where the team finished and then add in additions and departures to determine ranking. I don't factor in the schedule because that's another subject. There have been countless seasons where teams that were good on paper had a bad schedule and fell off for one reason or the other.

Dan Hanzus of NFL.com listed the power rankings. The Buffalo Bills were given the top spot and the defending superbowl champions, the Los Angeles Rans were bumped down to number two. And the defending AFC champions were knocked down to fourth. The Patriots were twelveth in 2021 winning the sixth seed but got blown out to the Buffalo Bills.

Hanzus has the Patriots ranked seventeenth in the league and tenth in the AFC. Before the draft people were talking about expectations for the team and some were saying the Patriots over achieved for a team in a rebuild. Typical if a team is in a rebuild. They get better every advancing year or that's the theory. So early in the offseason, Vicariously Patriots wrote that they expected the Patriots to finish with at least a wildcard birth.

The Patriots lost a good portion of their staff, along with their top cornerback. They also have an uncertainty at linebacker but they did trade for DeVante Parker. And it's too early to tell how they did with their draft. It's one thing to expect them to win the seventh seed in the AFC, which is very well possible. However, expectations and initial power rankings are two different things. 

This writer believes fourteenth to sixteenth was a fair ranking. Seventeenth is only a spot off but still middle of the pack. That's not bad granted they're the tenth AFC team listed. All four AFC West and three of the AFC North teams are ranked above them. So being a middle of the pack team should work in their favor, as the other teams are going to beat up on each other. With that, if the Patriots are ranked correctly, fans should be happy when they look to determine the Patriots record predictions in the coming weeks.