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Thursday, May 26, 2022

Where is Mac Jones Ranked?

Mac Jones was said to be the most NFL ready quarterback entering the draft. There were disputes on whether he was a first or second round prospect, with those who said he was the latter saying "Mac's only going in the first due to lack of talent." The way he was talked about it was reasonable to think Mac would be a bottom of the barrel starter, someplace in the 25-32 range. Mac exceeded that tier.

At the end of the season, depending on what site was looked at, Mac Jones was ranked as an average quarterback. Some place between 14-18. Looking at NFL.com on February 16th, they had Mac as the 16 ranked quarterback. The dead average position for a starter. That's not bad after a rookie season and it shows that when it's said that his ceiling is low, it's because he's so much closer to it than the other guys that came out with him. 

Mac Jones's 67.6 completion percentage was the 8th best a starter, he was 13th in yards with over 3800. Mac's 4.2 touchdown percentage was 16th among starters. He only had a 2.5 interception percentage which was 20th. Now some of these areas are tied to his talent around him, I get it but the Patriots did improve that talent this off season.

Mac only had one 4th quarter comeback and that was his only game winning drive, which had him ranked for 21st. That is one of the best ways to determine how good a quarterback is. The problem is not every quarterback that is good or elite finds themselves having to pull their team out from a loss. Not every good quarterback has to have game winning drives or 4th quarterback comebacks.

So we're forced to go off stats and opnion based off what is seen. Mac doesn't have the experience of other quarterbacks, so that may influence some of what we see. I am going to put the quarterbacks into three tiers. Those that are better than Mac, those that are close to equal and those that are worse. Since modern quarterbacks rely on their legs, some quarterbacks maybe ranked better then expected. This will be my opnion based off of 2021.

Brady, Allen, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Burrow, Mahomes, Murray, Hurts are better than Mac. I have seen people knock Murray but he ran for 429 yards and 5 touchdowns. NFL.com has Murray ranked as the 8th best and he should definitely be a top 10 due to his legs. The same with Hurts. Watson is not being added until I see that he will be cleared to play but, he would be in this tier.

My first tier only had 9 guys excluding Watson, meaning some of these guys are borderline top 10 and some are borderline basement guys. Prescott, Carr, Wilson, Tannehill, Cousins, Jackson, Ryan, Bridgewater, Wentz, Garoppolo, Golf are all equivalent to Mac Jones as of the end of the 2021 season. Some of those guys again were products of their team or talent around them, I get that but based off of everything, this is the group Mac finds himself around. These are average guys. They are above average to average game managers. These are system quarterbacks.

Winston, Tagovailoa, D. Jones, Mayfield, Heinicke, Fields, Hill, Mills, Lawrence, Lance, Darnold, Newton, Dalton, Taylor, Rudolph, Wilson, Trubisky, Pickett, Mariota, Fitzpatrick. These are the below average game managers. They can barely do what's asked and cannot carry a team. Some are in development and others are on the way to holding a clipboard. There maybe some other's I've missed that belong with these guys.

NFL.com had Mac Jones ranked 16th, I think that's a fair spot to start the 2022 season. With the coaching situation, Mac is going to have to be extra to improve from that rank. Mental breakdown is the only way I see Mac digressing. Mac is in development still, so middle of the pack is where he should start and a fringe top 10 is where I expect him to crack by season end. I don't know if he'll ever crack the top 10 but the fringe should be reachable for him. 

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Where do the Patriots rank?

The NFL released the league power rankings. I'm a believer that one has to start where the team finished and then add in additions and departures to determine ranking. I don't factor in the schedule because that's another subject. There have been countless seasons where teams that were good on paper had a bad schedule and fell off for one reason or the other.

Dan Hanzus of NFL.com listed the power rankings. The Buffalo Bills were given the top spot and the defending superbowl champions, the Los Angeles Rans were bumped down to number two. And the defending AFC champions were knocked down to fourth. The Patriots were twelveth in 2021 winning the sixth seed but got blown out to the Buffalo Bills.

Hanzus has the Patriots ranked seventeenth in the league and tenth in the AFC. Before the draft people were talking about expectations for the team and some were saying the Patriots over achieved for a team in a rebuild. Typical if a team is in a rebuild. They get better every advancing year or that's the theory. So early in the offseason, Vicariously Patriots wrote that they expected the Patriots to finish with at least a wildcard birth.

The Patriots lost a good portion of their staff, along with their top cornerback. They also have an uncertainty at linebacker but they did trade for DeVante Parker. And it's too early to tell how they did with their draft. It's one thing to expect them to win the seventh seed in the AFC, which is very well possible. However, expectations and initial power rankings are two different things. 

This writer believes fourteenth to sixteenth was a fair ranking. Seventeenth is only a spot off but still middle of the pack. That's not bad granted they're the tenth AFC team listed. All four AFC West and three of the AFC North teams are ranked above them. So being a middle of the pack team should work in their favor, as the other teams are going to beat up on each other. With that, if the Patriots are ranked correctly, fans should be happy when they look to determine the Patriots record predictions in the coming weeks.

OTAs are in New England

The last time there was anything news related to talk about was May 17th or 18th. It's now May 25th and there's something new to talk about as OTAs are now taking place. Since the 18th, there has still been talk in the media about the coaching staff and the draft. Those are just stories the media is running with to fill content need. There really isn't anything new going to come out until August concerning the coaches and the draft is done so unless Robert Kraft says something. Anymore criticism over the draft is to trash the Patriots.

Mac Jones has learned that he cannot be walking around like Jay Cutler at the end of his career and that he needed to get into NFL game shape. This is something most players know and a former Patriots quarterback turned into a brand. 

Mac Jones said, “I just cleaned up my diet. I’ve learned more this offseason than I probably ever have about nutrition, sleep, wellness, all that stuff. At the same time, I need to be able to maintain my weight and be able to take hits,” he continued. “There’s a fine balance for every player. I’ve definitely trimmed down on the body fat, and I’ll get a chance to bulk up before the season starts and be able to absorb hits.”

Attendance: This is OTAs and people need to remember that. There was talk about N'keal Harry not showing up. How the must be the writing is on the wall. However, Matthew Judon, Isaiah Wynn, and Nick Folk weren't present. Does that mean the writing is on the wall for them also? There were like 12 Patriots not in attendance on day one of OTAs 

The outside corner position has been a huge topic of conversation since before the 2021 season ended. The Patriots added some pieces to the secondary to address the need. However, the media hasn't been so kind, questioning the team's moves. The good news is one of the two rookies is showing signs of life. Referring of course to Jack Jones who slipped down draft boards due to off field issues at college.

Paul Perillo wrote, "Another fluid athlete who stood out was Jack Jones. The rookie cornerback moves effortlessly and also showed the ability to high-point the ball effectively during drills. Toward the end of practice he worked with J.J. Taylor and Malcolm Perry returning punts and Belichick spent a couple of extended periods discussing his techniques during the drill."

Receivers With the trading for DeVante Parker and the drafting of Tyquan Thornton people knew there would be changes with the Patriots order at receiver. It looks like that maybe taking place. Could we see Agholor moved to the Z role and Thorton out to the slot? Evan Lazar of CLNS spoke about what he saw coming from the receivers.

Lazar wrote, "Unfortunately, Patriots rookie Tyquan Thornton was limited in today’s session, so we didn’t get to see the rookie in live drills. However, DeVante Parker is acclimating himself quickly into the offense and was heavily involved at receiver. Parker had the play of the day during team drills when he snuck behind New England’s secondary for a long touchdown pass from Brian Hoyer on a deep post pattern. Parker had fresh legs and some legit burst coming off the line in his reps. Based on the way things are going, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Parker is New England’s starting “X” receiver, not Nelson Agholor or Thornton."

Alex Barth was keeping an eye on the linebackers but without pads, how much can really be taken away from their practice. The linebacking core is apparently showing life with one player getting Barth's attention. And that's a player returning from injury.

Barth wrote, "Monday was the first chance we’ve had to see McMillan since that injury, and he appears to be picking up where he left off. He was heavily involved in the practice, and appeared to be moving well. Speaking with the media after practice, he told reporters he’s 'pretty much full go.' "

Patriots 2022 first round pick Cole Strange is already showing why he was drafted in the first round with several media members hyping him up. Andrew Callahan had Strange as the player of the day.

Callahan wrote, "Strange started at left guard and hardly moved from that spot during team drills. His elite athleticism was evident on several outside runs. Strange won’t be able to fully showcase his talent until the pads come on, but the Patriots clearly think highly of what the rookie has shown them to date."

The Patriots are using Malcolm Perry everywhere. Fans thought D'eriq King would be doing what we're hearing from Perry. The Patriots signed Perry to the practice squad last season and to a future's contract this off season. NESN's Zack Cox was one of many to take notice of how evolved Perry was.

Cox wrote, "Jack Jones, Perry and running back J.J. Taylor took punt-return reps. Bill Belichick stopped by during that period to give Jones, a rookie fourth-rounder, some 1-on-1 instruction...." "Perry, a former quarterback at Navy, threw passes to a small group of receivers and tight ends after practice. The Patriots also utilized his versatility on their scout-team offense during one 11-on-11 period."

Quarterback There was a lot of negativity when the Patriots took Bailey Zappe in the fourth. People went as far as to say he would never start in the league and would be a career clip board holder. Others thought he was one of the best quarterbacks in the draft class. Khari Thompson took note of Zappe's practice and had praise for the rookie.

Thompson wrote, "While it might not say much with no pads on (or given who the Patriots’ other quarterbacks are), Zappe appears to have the liveliest arm in the room. He showed it off on one fastball down the middle of the field to tight end Matt Sokol, in particular.

He also threw the ball with the kind of anticipation, confidence, and accuracy not always typical of a rookie, slipping in some tricky throws to covered receivers in drills."

More from Zack Cox who was one of a few to notice how some players were playing linebacker. 

Cox wrote, "Linebacker Josh Uche, whom position coach Steve Belichick envisions “being a big part of this defense,” saw reps at edge and off-the-ball alignments. He’s a prime candidate to take on a larger workload following Kyle Van Noy’s offseason departure.

Uche and Deatrich Wise were New England’s first-choice edge rushers with Pro Bowler Judon absent, with Wise occasionally standing up and dropping into coverage. That’s a new wrinkle for Wise, who always has played as a hand-in-the-dirt defensive end."

James White looks like he might be a go come September as he's practicing and that could be huge for the Patriots offense. Jeff Howe had the following to say about White.

Howe wrote, "With White, who is bouncing back from season-ending hip surgery having previously noted that he still has a ways to go in his recovery, it's not surprising that he remains limited at this stage. That said, his presence for the team's OTAs, in any capacity, is a positive sign. In the absence of any setbacks this summer, While will look to reclaim his change-of-pace role in New England's backfield ahead of Week 1."

One last thing we saw how the Patriots were going to be using some of the coaches. As expected Bill worked with the offense, Judge worked with the quarterbacks, Patricia worked with the offensive line and surprisingly Fears watched on from the bleachers. The Patriots the media confuse people on occasion and this year seems no different.

Ray Rauth recently gave his opinion on the Patriots coaching staff. Rauth wrote, "I’m not surprised New England’s players aren’t happy. Greg Bedard was the first to report this and usually I don’t agree with anything Bedard has to say about the Patriots, but this time we’re on the same page. Both Judge and Patricia were failed head coaches, and though both had success as coordinators with New England (Patricia: Defensive Coordinator, and Judge: Special Teams Coordinator), I don’t have a lot of faith in either guy leading the Patriots offense..."

Overall thoughts: It's been seven or eight days with nothing to write. This is just OTAs so it might not mean anything but then again last year's OTAs didn't mean anything supposedly but they showed Mac being better than expexted. So take everything coming from this year's OTAs with a grain of salt. These practices might not mean anything or they could mean everything.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

If You're Still Bitching About Tyquan Thorton, You're Holding A Bias.

Regardless if it was Matt Groh's or Bill Belichick's decision on drafting  receiver Tyquan Thornton, the Patriots were trashed for taking him. The initial thought due to the concensus board was that Thorton was a fourth round prospect. Afterwards, fans wanted the Patriots to replace Bill as GM and the media said the team didn't know what they were doing and that Matt Groh didn't have sources to tell him what round to take guys.

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler has come forth saying that intelligence now supports the Patriots taking Thorton where they did. This is just one of their draft selections that it appears that the Patriots actually drafted correctly. However, nobody is apologizing for trashing the Patriots draft. 

Here's what Fowler said, "New England is taking heat in media post-draft grades for reaching, but what emerged in pre-draft conversations is that Baylor wideout Tyquan Thornton wasn’t necessarily a reach for many teams. The Patriots’ second-round pick (No. 50) also was on the radar of the Packers, Saints and others as a Day 2 option. He combined the 4.28 speed with strong interviews, as teams liked his football acumen. Some saw him as a Day 3 prospect, to be sure. But he was a classic riser in the weeks leading up to the draft, and the Patriots visited with him very late in the process, which was telling."

This information shouldn't be that much of a surprise. After all, It's come out that some teams Cole Strange as a top 40 pick. And the Patriots got and are still getting blasted for using the number 29 selection on him. The 29th draft pick which is essentially an early second round pick with the talent available at that moment.

Now whether the Patriots can get the most out of him and make Thorton into an NFL player is another story. However as unpopular as it may be, the Patriots took Thorton when they should've. Anyone who has an issue still with the Thorton pick just has some type of bias, it doesn't matter if they wanted another player or don't like the Pats. It's still bias. The only shocking thing is that Baylor didn't come out and defend the Patriots and hype of Thorton.

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Steve Belichick Spoke To The Media Back To Back And There Were Nuggets Of Truth In The Ramblings Of The Patriots Way.

Steve Belichick talked to the media Over May 16th and 17th. There was about thirty minutes of talking with not a lot of information coming out over the those two days. Which people should be used to by now. Here's some key take aways from his two interviews.

Tom Curran got Steve Belichick to say. "We'll have to shoot our shot and see how it goes," when Steve was agreeing that the current defense isn't as experienced as units from the previous seasons.

Steve Belichick was asked about the outside linebacker position and he said he likes guys thay "complement each other," and that they must have a good work ethic and love of the "game."

When asked about McGrone Steve said He hasn't missed a step even thought he"s been injured. He was also asked over the two days about Ronnie Perkins, Josh Uche and a few others. He really didn't say much about anyone of the others.

On Monday Steve said he "doesn't know" what his role is this year and he "doesn't really care." He's just gonna coach. His answer came off sincere.

Steve was asked if they're starting to prepare for the other teams now that the schedule was out. His answer was right now the staff is focused on coaching up the talent and not the other teams.

Steve was asked about what roles his father was going to have this season. Steve said his father does everything but to what degree this season "I don't know," and that "you have to adapt or die around here." Steve also implied that as part of the staff one has to know all phases of the game, not just what one coaches.

Steve was asked about if he was going to be the defensive coordinator in 2022. He replied, "I don't know, if I am great. If not..." Again, Steve seemed sincere in his answer. When it comes to the D.C. it's fair to assume Bill is keeping them in the dark at the moment or at least hasn't told them anything different from last season.

Then Steve was asked about Joe Judge and Steve said Joe's good with "fundamentals" and "evaluations," Steve than rambled for a bit. Steve went on to say personally that after a decade with the team, Steve's still developing, "growing" as a coach.

There are nuggets of information buried in the "Patriots way" answers that Steve gave. For the most part it's up to interpretation of what's said. As much as Steve knows what's going on, there seems to be just as much he doesn't seem to know about what the organization is doing. There's a saying, the less one knows the better. And for Bill, by not giving his staff the full information, it gives him power and allows him to keep the peace in the building.

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Who Will Be The Patriots Most Impactful Rookie In 2022?

The Patriots drafted a lot of players in the 2022 NFL draft. Overall they selected ten players. And it's easy to say that Cole Strange will have an impact. After all Strange is a first round selection and if he doesn't perform well the Patriots are screwed as they really don't have another starting quality interior lineman to replace him. However, he's not the rookie that will have the best impact on the team, so what rookie will it be?

Jack Jones will be the most impactful rookie.
The Patriots are without Gilmore and Jackson. The Patriots signed Malcolm Butler whom everyone is hoping can still perform at near elite number two levels but they had nobody across from him going into the draft. Jalen Mills and Myles Bryant tried to fill that role in 2021 but were adequate at best. That's where Jack Jones comes in. As a fourth round pick, Jones was a high risk High reward selectionHe is maybe half an inch under six foot tall and can play both man and zone coverage. Jones was a five star product coming out of high school but had issues off the field that derailed his college production. 

What did they say about him pre draft? 
Steelers Depot did a really good scouting report on Jones that is recommend. Link here

Erik Schlitt wrote, "He uses his instincts and above-average agility to mirror wide receivers, often stacking them and running the route for them. He can play in multiple defensive schemes and is capable of playing both on the outside and in the slot. His skill set, experience, and positional flexibility will appeal to teams."

What has Patriots Media said about him post draft?
Bernd Buchmasser wrote, "Jones projects primarily on the outside of the defensive formation. His short-area quickness — he ran a 6.9-second three-cone drill at his pro day — helps in case he moves into the slot on select downs, but his overall versatility is limited compared to other players in the Patriots’ secondary."

Overall thoughts
Jones will be a top 64 corner in 2022. The Patriots know how to develop corners, the question is can they develop Jack Jones. Jones had former New York Jets head coach Herm Edwards as a coach in 2021. And Edwards believes Jones fell in to the best possible fit for his skill set and ability. While Edwards wasn't the best NFL coach, he knows football. The Patriots do not need Jones to be Gilmore or J.C. Jackson. They just need him to be better than Chris Harris was for the Chargers or the tandem of Mills and Bryant did for the Patriots in 2021 on the perimeter. Jones can deliver that much. 

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Josh McDaniels Gets His Quarterback Out Of New England And Only Paid A Sixth For Him.

In the 2022 NFL draft, the Patriots took Bailey Zappe, quarterback from Western Kentucky. The New England Patriots then decided on May 12th of 2022 to send Jarrett Stidham (and possibly a seventh?) to the Las Vegas Raiders. Stidham now joins Josh McDaniels and the Patriots get a sixth round pick for their former fourth round selection. Some Patriots fans are acting like the Patriots got one over on the Raiders but did they?

His career:
Over his career with the Patriots Stidham played in 8 games. He was always put in with the team trailing but close enough that the team could comeback. Now Stidham didn't look good in New England and at times he looked scared. As a passer he could hit the timing passes better than Newton but statistically there were times when his numbers matched Newton's. 

Stidham threw 48 passes completing 24 of them. He threw 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. One of which was a ball that Edelman dropped or redirected into the hands of a defender. 13 of Stidham 24 completions were for first downs. Stidham was sacked 5 times. He also ran the ball 9 times for 5 yards with 3 first downs.

Stidham's true completion percentage was 59.5 and his true rating was 76. Further more, analytics show only 2 of Stidham's passes were listed as interceptable. Stidham threw 4. Take that into consideration. He also had 1 drop.

His ties to McDaniels
During the 2020 season Cam Newton was playing horribly and people were wondering why the Patriots did not play Jarrett Stidham. In October of 2020 Josh McDaniels said the following.

"Competed his butt off this whole year trying to learn and improve as a football player. Really continues to work really hard and prepare just as he would if he was starting, which is what he did last year as a rookie. He’s an unselfish guy. He will do anything to help the team. Practices well, practices hard, prepares every week to be ready to go. I have a lot of confidence in Jarrett and I see a lot of growth in him each week that he’s here.”

Later that season McDaniels was still being questioned and said, That’s coach (Belichick)’s decision, and I honor whatever he makes in terms of those choices...” 

McDaniels however wasn't done saying, "We work as hard as we can to get everybody ready to go. I’ve seen plenty of Jarrett in practice. I see him every day. I’ve seen him for two years. I’m confident that I understand where Jarrett is at in his development.

But I also know that our job is to try to go out there and win two football games that we have left. So that starts with Buffalo Monday night. Cam’s done a great job of preparing this week. Those choices are Bill’s. Whatever he chooses, that’s what we’re going to do, and I feel confident going in with the plan that we have right now.”

McDaniels threw Belichick under the bus. Belichick is a hard headed guy. And when Bill makes his mind up, there's no changing it. It's very possible that Bill decided that Stidham was not starting for him and to end Stidham's career before it started by not letting him start in 2020.

Overall thoughts:

Stidham is now Josh McDaniels problem. The last time McDaniels was a coach, he chased out starter Jay Cutler for Tim Tebow. The acquisition of Stidham could be nothing but getting a veteran backup. However, it could also be him preparing to make a move by putting pressure on Carr. Only time will tell. It may just turn out that Stidham was with the Patriots to appease Josh McDaniels. If so, it would answer a few questions and create some others.

Regardless of how Mac Jones turns out, if McDaniels makes a quarterback out of Stidham with the Raiders, people will be able to justify Bill getting in his own way. If not, people will be able to brag about how savvy Belichick was to get something for someone who was worth nothing.

Also i'm pretty sure Mac was taken over Justin Fields to appease Robert Kraft but that's another story. 

The Patriots Could Find A Single Season Band-aid In Chris Harris.

While the Patriots had J.C. Jackson, the Patriots lost Stephon Gilmore and tried to fill the hole with Jalen Mills and Miles Bryant. They were not even an adequate committee. When free agency hit they lost J.C. Jackson, the Patriots did a band-aid fix and brought in Malcolm Butler. Butler at this point of his career should be an average outside corner but he is a band-aid for the Patriots secondary. The Patriots also drafted Jack Jones but there are concerns over whether or not he can play outside corner.

Options:
The Patriots do not have a lot of room to maneuver in free agency. One name being thrown around is James Bradberry but he may be driven out of the Patriots price range. The Patriots could look to free agency to find another veteran to be a band-aid for the 2022 season. One name to keep an eye on is Chris Harris who recently played for the Chargers. He's not the best out there but he maybe the cheapest for the value.

2021 stats:
Harris age 32 played in 14 games in 2021 starting 11. He had 37 tackles, 6 passes defended, and 1 interception in 2021. 

What does he bring?
Harris does a good job of prevent quarterbacks from completing their passes, allowing less than a 60% completing percentage. Harris is a band-aid fix but he brings 11 years of veteran experience to the Patriots locker room. Harris has missed 10 games due to injury over the past 2 seasons, so that is a concern but to counter that, PFF still ranked Harris as the 60th best corner in the NFL, a far cry from what it was onlyba few short years ago.

Overall thoughts:
If there's anything left the Patriots would be the team to get it out of him. He should come cheap as there's not a large market for him. This would buy the Patriots a season to develop their young talent and the Patriots are supposed to have a good amount of salary in 2023. Worst case scenario the Patriots go with him and he ends up on the I.R. during the season and Mills and Bryant have to play outside corner for a second year.

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Who Is Matt Sokol And What To Expect From Him.

The Patriots signed 26 year old tight end Matt Sokol. Sokol is on his fourth team since coming into the league, previously spending time with the Lions, Chargers, and Jaguars. While not much is expected from Sokol but to be a camp body, I thought it be good to see why four teams have invested time in the former Spartan.

College Experience 
Sokol played in 50 games for the Spartans, starting 23 games. He had 31 catches for 348 yards and 2 touchdowns. They also had him try to carry the ball once. It ended in a 4 yard loss. Sokol was mainly known for his blocking.

Scouting Report
DraftBlaster.com wrote, "Essentially you have to throw out last year’s tape for players on the Spartan’s offense, as that unit utterly collapsed under poor coaching and a QB injury that never got resolved. To that end, Sokol is a tight end prospect that is going under the radar, and could end up being a major sleeper in the draft. Wasn’t utilized in the passing game as much as expected, but shows nice acceleration off of the snap and is able to get open with a big catch radius. Good as both a run and pass blocker, and projects as a very good all around prospect at the position."

Overall Thoughts
The Patriots need a camp body. Sokol could be the Patriots next Matt LaCosse, as in a backup who earns playing time for the Patriots. He played H-back at Michigan State. And with the Patriots not having a fullback, the tight ends are going to have to play that role. Jonnu Smith is going to need someone to give him a breather from time to time and Dalton Keene has issues staying healthy. Sokol projects as nothing more then a practice squad guy at the moment but that could change. He's definitely got the size to but does he have the ability. Being his fourth team, he's going to have to show the Patriots something.

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Should The Patriots Trade Damien Harris?

As a rookie, Sony Michel helped carry the Patriots to a superbowl in 2018. In 2019, he ran behind a crappy offensive line. And after the 2020 season, Sony Michel was the number 17th all time rusher for the New England Patriots. And with one more season he would've at least tied for the 10th all time Patriots rusher. However, Michel also missed 10 of his 48 games in his three seasons with the Patriots and having Harris and Stevenson on the roster, it was enough to trade him for multiple day three picks. 

Is Damien Harris following the same projection?
In 2019, then rookie Damien Harris was basically a redshirt and was kept off the field. Over Harris's next two seasons harris would rush for 1620 yards and 17 touchdowns. However, he would also miss 8 games over those two years. Furthermore, just like Michel in his final off-season with the Patriots, Harris has watched the Patriots take a quality back in the mid rounds of the 2021 draft.

Does Harris have to worry about Strong and K. Harris?
To answer this question first one has to look back at the 2021 draft. The Patriots acquired Rhamondre Stevenson in the 4th round. In his rookie season Stevenson had played in 12 games. Barely rushed over 100 times and still had over 600 yards on the ground. So there's already an established runner on the team. 

Kevin Harris is coming off back surgery and it's likely that he'll see the injured reserve in year one but when healthy, he's a nasty power back. Strong on the other hand is expected to come in to camp and compete. Now the Patriots have a history of red shirting running backs but Strong is a danger to take it to the house everytime he touches the football. In college, Strong had 10 fifty yard touchdown runs. The Patriots are likely to find out how good strongs hands are in the offseason. They're an unknown commodity and with his speed, the Patriots are gonna wanna find out what they have in Strong early.

What could the Patriots get for Damien Harris?
The Patriots got a 2022 6th round pick and a 2023 fourth roind pick for Michel. Even though Michel was a first round draft pick, production matters. However, double dipping at running back in 2022, the Patriots may have put themselves at a disadvantage. The Patriots may be forced to get rid of a good back due to over crowding. That plays well to the favor of other teams. Do not expect the Patriots to be able to match what they got for Michel unless they can find a team dealing with injuries. A 5th round pick is reasonable to be expected at this junction or a potential future 4th round. 

Overall thoughts
It's possible to see the Patriots move Damien Harris before week one but I do not think it's going to happen. The Patriots like to carry four running backs and both James White and Kevin Harris are likely to start on the injured reserve. The Patriots are going to need D.  Harris to be part of their committee along with Stevenson, Strong, and Taylor. Taylor is likely to be released if they can get White back later in the year. However, don't rule out a deadline trade if the Patriots season looks to be finished prematurely.