Three Summaries Of Patriots Camp After Day 2.

The offense wasn't so great on day one of camp and most of the media agrees that this is just OTAs until the pads come on. The general consensus is the offense looks like an NFL offense again and is still being installed. Right Tackle, Running Back behind Stevenson, and Free Safety seem to be the questions that the media is concerned with at the moment. Here's three summaries coming out of Patriots camp.

Summary one:

Nothing special with how camp is being ran so far. Focus has been all red zone. Offense is looking poor, lots to clean up. No quarterback competition. Quarterbacks making poor decisions and playing inconsistently. Quarterbacks need to play within their abilities, as they're struggling to go outside them. Offense ran the same play repeatedly. JuJu is being heavily targeted and should be ranked between 30 to 40 in receivers.

Reiff is inflating the defensive production. Montgomery dealing with injuries already. Injuries are the reason for meeting with Cook. Patriots are trying to avoid a mutiny with contracts. Guy's still having contact issues, although he reported. Uche's having a good camp. Kicking competition is too close at the moment.

Summary two:

The offense is practicing the basics in the red zone which is why they're getting beat. O'Brien's not being flashy. Offensive strategy has been about improving execution. O'Brien is running RPOs and play actions. A lot of scripted plays. The Patriots we're also throwing into coverage. To be successful, they need to play in more space.

Patriots are catering offense more to Mac, letting him use his abilities. Mac continues to show he needs a more intelligence based offense. Mac showed he's not a mobile passer. 

JuJu and Parker are the only qualified red zone receivers. Pass catchers still not getting seperation. Douglas looks like a candidate to make the 53 and is moving up the depth chart. Thorton is useless in the red zone. Douglas has been the quick seperation guy.

Strong is getting the number two back reps. Montgomery should be the third down back. Hurd is most likely Montgomery's backup. Trent Brown looks ready. Right tackle is a position to watch and has a lot of questions.

Gonzalez is working against Parker and JuJu and holding his own for the most part. Tavai looked good and is showing signs of improvement. Jack Jones demoted. Lots of Patriots with contract concerns. No one pulling ahead on kicker battle.

Summary three:

Stevenson is injured and  J.J. Taylor has been the better of three between Strong, Harris, and Taylor. However, Strong is getting more reps. Offensive timing is not there. Zappe has been playing extreme conservative, to explain his production and the quarterbacks have been holding on to the ball too long. Juju's out of shape but him and Parker been making plays. And Lumpkin and Sokol have each had their moments the first two days.

Offensive's poor play is due to lack of contact but looks better than last season. Trent Brown is back and Reiff is not playing well without contact. Right tackle is a liability at the moment. Bill Murray is getting a high volume of reps. Secondary is rotating personnel outside of Gonzalez. The safeties are getting a heavy work load. Tavai is looking good. Judon is disgruntled over contract. Limited number of players returning kickoffs, for a team with so many special teamers capable of doing the job.

Overall, I'd say the offense isn't trying to look good. Mac is trying to be a more aggressive mobile passer. The tight ends, Parker and JuJu are the red zone offense. And the third down back at the moment isn't a true running back. Thorton's rookie year looks like it was wasted and the only classic "Edelman type" slot appears to be Douglas. The team has no answers behind Stevenson and probably should've brought Wynn back. Defensively, by demoting Jack Jones, they've added a second question to answer, when all they needed to figure out was free safety. 

Sources:

Tom Curran, Phil Perry, Alex Barth, Greg Bedard, Evan Lazar, CLNS, NESN, NBC Boston, and the BSJ.

The Patriots Had More Incentives Than Tennessee, It Wasn't A Bad Contract.

Reggie Wayne, Ochocinco, Eric Decker, Antonio Brown and I'll even mention Mohamed Sanu are five big name receivers the Patriots brought that burned them. So I don't fault Bill Belichick for not over paying DeAndre Hopkins. The Patriots didn't go cheap with their offer though.

According to Albert Breer, The Patriots basically offered Hopkins the same contract as the Titans in 2023.

Breer said, "My understanding is, the max of (the Patriots') offer was $15 million for this year -- so they matched what the Titans did for this year -- but a much higher percentage of it was in incentives."

Hopkins is a guy that had some serious leg injuries in 2021, missed some time in 2022. Is 31 and doesn't like to practice. So the Patriots offered him a more incentives filled contract. It makes sense for them to cover themselves.

People just wanna rip on Belichick because he's won six superbowls as a head coach. There are Patriots fans that even say it's boring with him on the sideline because he's been there so long. It's just people look for someone to hate. Leave Bill alone.

Should a team sign an elite pass catcher before knowing what they have at quarterback or not?

The sports media did it again. So we have people like Alex Barth implying that it doesn't matter how bad the passer is if a team has an elite pass catcher. And the on the Rich Eisen show, people are criticizing D-Hop for going to the Titans because Tannehill is their passer.

A good receiver can hide the flaws of and inflate the career of a bad quarterback, leaving them to get exposed if the pass catcher is not on the field. "Well that's why you always have a good pass catcher on the team." Whether it's due to injury, financial issues, or just not available in the draft or market, it's not always possible to have a star pass catcher.

Further more it leads to a false sense of confidence and a team being complacent because they cannot get a proper evaluation of their passer. No need to shop for a quarterback if you have an average top 16 passer but good surrounding talent can make a passer look better than that. And can leave a team in a boat load of trouble.

Before his injury, Tannehill was showing that he was a middle of the pact average NFL passer. Why would Hopkins wanna go there? The answer is because if Hopkins is as good as he thinks he is, Tannehill who according to several including Eisen, "had nobody," that much better.

If it's true that Tannehill "had nobody" and was still on pace for 18 touchdowns, 9 interceptions and 3,700 yards and 3+ rushing TDs. Imagine how much better Tannehill could be with a top 10 pass catcher. He'll, Imagine how much fresher at the end of the year King Derrick Henry could be with a top 10 pass catcher.

The media needs to stop making the arguement that good receivers show their value by elevating average quarterbacks and then bitch when an elite pass catcher chooses an average passer. Either one believes a good passer can turn an average quarterback into a contender or they don't.

Now I laid out the case for Hopkins to choose Tannehill. I also on twitter laid out the case for why I don't believe should sign an elite pass catcher until they're sure on their passer. If you think one can win in Tennessee having Cam Newton, Nathan Peterman, Russel Wilson, or 2015 Tim Tebow over Tannehill, if they put them with D-Hop, I think you'd be crazy.

An average passer is still needed. There were questions about how good a passer 2015 Tebow was and there are questions to how good a passer Wilson is now. Teaming with Hopkins isn't going to help with that evaluation and assuming they're guaranteed to be average because they have Hopkins is a fallacy.

Teams and free agents when signing need to be certain of what they have before making decisions around a player or themselves if it's a free agent. I believe Hopkins did that. Now can he elevate an average quarterback in the way theory says he should be able to?

There's No Longer A Real Reason To Criticize Mac Jones

Mac Jones has a weak arm. That was the complaint about Mac Jones entering the 2021 NFL draft. Basically he was accused of not being able to throw hard or over 40 yards. And Mac heard people.

Mac Jones began working with Tom House immediately. Tom House worked with many famous pitchers and quarterbacks to teach them to gain arm strength. Mac Jones forced the ball deep to appease both Matt Patricia and fans in 2022 and paid for it.

Recently a video came out of Mac Jones throwing the ball 70 yards indoors. Mac isn't going to be making that throw often in the NFL. However, throwing it 20 yards less, he should now be able to put a lot more zip on the ball.

Here's the clip of Mac throwing 70 yards. No more talk about his arms from fans or the media. https://youtube.com/shorts/p7ejmIHab8o?feature=share3

People have looked for every reason to bash Mac Jones since coming to New England. It has become clear that the only thing that matters to his critics is, how good of a running back is he. They honestly don't care if he's a good passer, so they made up the excuse of his arm strength because they're still bitching about him.

It basically sounds like most fans and members of the media want to eliminate passing although and just revert to running and laterals. That maybe fun for a week or two but that's not football. And that's why I am not in agreement with the typical fan. Just like when they wanted to sign Cam Newton after two weeks and I didn't.

Sometimes one just can't with fans and the media. And this is one of those periods where it's almost best to cut everyone off. And to enjoy the team by one's self.

I'm Not Mad At Samuel For Reminding Belichick Who's Under Center.

Going back to Danny Etling in 2018, both fans and media alike have been saying "stop comparing people to Tom Brady." Some of them recanted and even during the week 17 season of the 2020, we're calling Cam Newton "better than Tom" because he could run but for the most part, it has been said repeatedly. "Stop comparing people to Brady."

The Patriots drafted Mac Jones in 2021. June Jones and Charlie Weiss called him the best passer in the 2021 draft. There were comparisons to Kurt Cousins, Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, Joe Montana, and Tom Brady. While most said the last two were too high, people agreed upon the other three.

Mac went on to win the starting job as a rookie, make the playoffs, and pro bowl. His sophomore season, he had a rookie and I do mean rookie offensive coordinator and Mac got injured but he was still on pace to be the top 10 quarterback in statistics if he hadn't. Some criticized his ability to throw a catchable pass but player profiler said he threw the 80% of the time.

So people in 2023 are questioning Mac's ability to be a starter in 2023. Some calling him a bum. A former Patriots player came to his defense and tweeted on twitter June 6th.

"Let’s go Mac! He can actually do good if Bill stop doing stupid shit thinking he got Tom." Asante Samuel

Samuel accused Bill of treating Mac Jones like Tom Brady and everyone lost it. Fans are on social media like, "How dare you tell anyone not to compare the Patriots starting quarterback to Tom Brady, especially Bill Belichick." That's a summary of what's being said.

Unless Bill Belichick truly thinks Mac Jones is on Tom Brady's level, why would anyone get upset at a former player that knows Belichick, reminding Bill that his quarterback isn't on Brady's level? Seems kinda hypocritical but that's our fan base. We're a bunch of entitled hypocrites because we appeared in 9 superbowls since the start of the millennium.

Now, if Bill does think that, which is possible. Then Mac is playing below his level or Bill made an error. And while I respect Belichick, he has made scouting evolution mistakes in the past. Mac is statistically a better regular season quarterback than Brady was after the 02 season but he's nowhere near as clutch.

If Samuel didn't cost the Patriots a ring in many a fan's eyes, I don't think he would be getting any criticism for his comments. From listening to the people talk, they're just upset that he costed the Patriots a ring. And Samuel speaking out gives them an opportunity to attack him. 

Now Samuel made some comments about another corner in the league. That's another subject that has nothing to do with the Patriots, even if Revis is the one going at Samuel over his comments. Revis is a Jet, even if he helped the Patriots win a ring.

The Patriots Made Mistakes According To Fans And Media, While These Two Groups Themselves Are Both Normally Heavily Error Prone.

Fans and media often make bad general managers that are quick to criticize general managers poor decisions but never take accountability for their own bad takes. Here are some of the latest critiques going around about Bill Belichick the GM of the Patriots.

The Patriots should've drafted Lamar Jackson and should've made sure Brady never left. Cannot call it a mistake to let Tom Brady who retired after the 2022 season walk in 2019 and call it a mistake not to draft Lamar Jackson in 2018. If Brady had stayed. Lamar wouldn't of even played on his fifth year option. And Lamar would've been a waste of a first round draft pick.

People criticized the Patriots for not taking Deebo Sanders or A.J. Brown, players who many projected to be slot receivers. The Patriots in 2019 needed an X receiver and even had Demaryius Thomas. It was known that Arizona wanted Harry. The receiver that they could've considered was Metcalf of the Seahawks, but he had red flags. The Patriots would end up signing A.B. and trading for Sanu and surprisingly both were shit with Tom Brady in New England and A.B. was a mental and P.R. nightmare.

People criticized the Patriots for not trading up in 2020 for Tee Higgins. In 2020, it was believed that the Patriots needed tight ends on offense. The Patriots drafted two. Instead of getting an X receiver because the team had just invested previously on the X with N'Keal Harry. Fans would be just in criticizing the tight ends selected or the Patriots inability to know how to use the H-Back tight end position. As we saw in 2 seasons with Jonnu Smith, they don't know how to use that tight end position. The team was right at the time however for not trading up for Higgins while having so many needs.

Then people criticize the Patriots for not taking Metchie. In 2022, the Patriots had a slot, a Z, and an X receiver in Meyers, Bourne, and Agholor. They would later end up trading for Devante Parker. John Metchie was a slot receiver with acl problems and ran a 4.48. The team needed speed. And drafted Tyquan Thorton who ran a 4.28. Thorton has 22 catches over his career. Metchie hasn't recorded a stat. While I think Thorton is a deep slot being misused and fans could bitch that he's a deep slot, not an outside guy, he was a better selection then John Metchie.

The Patriots have been criticized for years for not signing or trading for Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and OBJ. Three guys who didn't do shit since the Patriots fan base started demanding their acquisition by Belichick. And when we look at OBJ, he choose the Rams and Ravens over the Patriots and admitted at one point that he chose the Rams because the Patriots didn't have Brady. 

The Point is, we as fans and even those in the media have the luxury of not having concerquences for our decisions or statements. People aren't coming at us asking how our decision turned out. Nobody asked Patriots fans about wanting Dez when his ankle broke in New Orleans. Nobody asked Patriots fans about Julio Jones when got injured for the titans,  Nobody asked fans when OBJ chose the Rams over the Pats, and nobody said a word to fans about John Metchie not recording a stat. That's a luxury we need to recognize, we have no accountability.

Patriots Record Prediction Before The Preseason.

Heading into the  2023 season, a lot of people have the Patriots with nine losses or more. I believe weeks two, three, four, six, thirteen, and eighteen are coin flip games. I have to go with my gut. The Patriots have the potential to finish anywhere from six to a fourteen win team.

Week 1: Loss vs Phi. It's a running quarterback in week one. The Patriots won't be ready for Hurts until Week five.

Week 2: Win vs Mia. It's Miami in the north. The Patriots should be improved enough to win at home.

Week 3: Win at NYJ. Rodgers is the wildcard but I do not believe the Jets have improved enough on paper.

Week 4: Win at Dal. I think the Dak era is coming to an end in Dallas. The Cowboys will find a way to lose this game.

Week 5: Win vs NO. Another team I don't think improved enough.

Week 6: Win at LV. JMD is on the hotseat. And might be rolling out Hoyer to start the season.

Week 7: Loss vs Buf. If the Patriots are going to upset the Bills this is the game but don't hold your breath.

Week 8: Loss at Mia. It's Miami in Miami. Unless Tua goes down. The Patriots aren't winning in Miami but being that it's in Miami, that still might not be enough.

Week 9: Win vs Was. Howell is not besting Bill Belichick in 2023.

Week 10: Win vs Ind. I expect the rookie to be starting by now but regardless, they don't have the quarterback to beat the Patriots in 2023.

Week 11 bye

Week 12: Win at NYG. The Giants over paid Jones and it's going to bite them, especially if Barkley sits out.

Week 13: Win vs LAC. December in New England, I think this favors the Patriots, who should have improved cornerback play thanks to Gonzalez.

Week 14: Win at Pit. I don't think the Steelers have the quarterbacks to beat the Patriots. I have no faith in Pickett.

Week 15: Loss at KC. I think the media is going to make this game personal for Belichick but I don't think the Patriots can hang on long enough to win.

Week 16: Win at Den. Sean Peyton is not going to be enough to save Denver. I expect Stidham to be seeing playing time by then.

Week 17: Loss at Buf. Unless Buffalo has the one seed locked, this is an L for the Patriots.

Week 18: Win vs NYJ. Again, Rodgers is a wildcard but the Patriots are at home. If this game is a win and in for both teams, like it think it might be. I expect Belichick to treat it like a playoff game. And I think it will be too much pressure for the Jets.

By my count, I have the Patriots now going 12-5. If I'm correct, I'm up a Win from the last time I did this. The only thing signing Hopkins will do is secure the coin flip games I have them winning. Maybe I'm disrespecting some of the quarterbacks the Patriots will face but if I am, let them prove it.

Blog retract

So on Wednesday I had heard someone say the Patriots signed D-hop to a 3 year contract. And also saw an article that confirmed it. It appears I got duped and the contract that was mentioned, was actually the Parker extension. I had to retract my D-hop article. My apologies to the readers.

Mac Jones Is Being Disrespected Still By Patriots Fans

When the Patriots drafted Mac Jones, a lot of fans were upset that they did trade up for Justin Fields. In fact it seems most Patriots fans would have the Patriots scouting running backs to see if they can throw the ball 50 yards, regardless of accuracy and be drafting or signing a running back to play quarterback over keeping Mac Jones.

It makes sense why some of the fanbase wants the team to re-sign Cam. The fanbase has shown it wants a running back that throws hail marys or bombs everytime when asked to pass. Hell, knowing Patriots Nation, there were probably fans that wanted the team to draft DJ Turner from Michigan to play quarterback. Let's look at what the Patriots had in 2022.

In 2022 defensive coach Matt Patricia became the Patriots defacto offensive coordinator. And special teams coach Joe Judge became the quarterbacks coach. Both are former head coaches but offensive wasn't their specialty. 

Patricia was pretty much the best of the bottom quarter of offensive coordinators having the team 26th in both total yards and offensive scoring. For a rookie offensive coordinator on any level, that's not bad. It's also not great because he was more predictable than Josh McDaniels.

The combination of Judge and Patricia led to the Patriots quarterbacks getting sacked an average of 7 times a game. That was 19th in the league. The Patriots quarterbacks finished 6th in completion percentage and 18th in QBR. 

For two guys that didn't have the experience for their position on the staff in 2022, they actually did better than given credit. Even if it was below standard for the Patriots. And I don't think anyone honest will argue that.

Mac Jones missed 3 games, which were 3 of the teams easier games, so Mac's stats would've gotten inflated. Mac also got pulled in one. Mac averaged 214 yards per game and 1 touchdown pass a game. While Mac didn't finish so well, he was on pace for over 3,600 yards and over 17 touchdowns. He was also on pace for 13 Interceptions.

Bailey Zappe threw for 781 yards, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Hoyer also threw 6 passes before getting hurt for 37 yards. The Patriots would've gotten better stats from Mac but no less than what the Patriots put up. 

That would've put Mac at over 3800 yards with 19 touchdowns and 14 Interceptions. Mac three for 3,800 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions his pro bowl rookie year. If Mac had played the entire season, he would've finished a top 10 quarterback in yards and a top 15 quarterback in touchdowns.

Now Mac Jones did have one of the lower tier protection rates, being ranked 23rd for protection. Player profiler said Mac Jones was the 16th best quarterback in true completion percentage and and the 11th best at catchable pass rate. Mac was also ranked the 11th best at completing the pass under pressure.

That's all good but they also said Mac was the 18th best quarterback in clean pocket completion percentage and the 22nd best in clean pocket passer accuracy. And while Mac was ranked 11th best on completion percentage against man coverage, against zone coverage, which modern starters normally excel, Mac was ranked 24th.

If I were to say how to beat Mac Jones, I would say it would be to use zone blitz packages. So are there things that Mac needs to improve on, yes. But I don't see Mac being anymore or any less than he was in 2021, entering his third season.

And as for Bill Belichick, he needs to accept that his quarterback doesn't have the experience of Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady, or Cam Newton, his former starters and take his share of the blame for Mac Jones's lack of progression.

I think McDaniels is an average offensive coordinator because he isn't aggressive enough. And the inexperienced Matty P. was a below average coordinator. What Mac Jones has shown us in two seasons, with these two coordinators is, that he is a top 16 quarterback that can crack the top 10 in categories.

So here's my question: Do people want the Patriots to get rid of Mac Jones and suck until they can get an elite, top 10 quarterback, or are people okay with the Patriots sticking with a quarterback that has shown that he is average to above average?

And before one answers consider this, you put tools around an average quarterback, you make them above average, you do the same to an above average quarterback and you make them good. The Patriots don't have a Gronk or Hernandez, they don't have a Moss, and the jury is still out on JuJu, if they have a Welker or Edelman. And don't mention Bourne, I think he's an overrated number 3 or a bottom end number 2 at best.

I think right now for the Patriots, the evolution is do they extend and pay Mac like a bottom end top 10 quarterback or do they treat him like a bottom end top 20 quarterback. The difference is whether Mac is fighting for or guaranteed a roster spot after 2027.

Bailey Zappe Is Getting More Play Time So Far This Offseason

In 2021 the Patriots gave Mac Jones more snaps than starter Cam Newton. Cam missed a preseason game and Mac won the job. People are saying there's no similarities between this OTA session and the one from 2021. They're wrong.

After the second media day of OTAs, Mac Jones had thrown 24 passes. Zappe threw 27 passes. Mac went 31 of 37 during the three OTAs. Zappe went 33 of 44 passes. Zappe also threw two interceptions. 

Zappe is getting more attempts. He's taking more snaps in front of the media. Stats don't tell everything but like I said after day two of media OTAs, there's nothing saying there isn't a competition going on.

Again, I like Mac but we gotta wait until the preseason before we can really say there's no competition. We just haven't seen enough to say there's not one going on. It's like when some of the media didn't want to cover Newton vs Stidham, or the things showing Brady was prepping to leave the Pats. If the media doesn't want us to talk about something, they'll try to squash it.

You know it's funny, the media tells us fans that we haven't seen enough of Mac to say whether he is or isn't the guy but some of them think they've seen enough after the first OTA to call whether or not a quarterback competition is happening. Many are the same people who screamed for Cam to get a long term contract after playing two weeks with the Pats. And we all saw how Newton was by years end as a passer.