Patriots 2021 schedule and record prediction

The Patriots schedule was announced and I have made my predictions. The Patriots should start the season 2-0 with wins over the Dolphins and Jets. The saints game can go either way but I am going to have the Patriots beat Winston early in the year and be 3-1 over the first four games. Losing to Tom Brady in his Return.

I would think the Texans beat the Patriots but with Watsons issues, that's a Pats win. I think they'll lose to Dallas and split Texas. I don't believe Cam can Keep up with Prescott. I think Herbert will slip into a sophomore slump and the Patriots will post back to back victories over LA and the Jets. Going 6-2 over the first eight games.

The Patriots will beat the Panthers in Carolina but will then drop four in a row, losing to Cleveland at home, Atlanta in Atlanta, Tennessee at home and Buffalo in Buffalo. That puts the Patriots at 7-6 at the bye.

After the bye, the Patriots will be the Colts in Indianapolis. Come home to beat Buffalo and Jacksonville. Then travel to Miami where they will lose in a defensive battle. Bringing the Patriots record to 10-7.

There are five victories that I have down for the Patriots that could easily be losses. Saints, Texans, Chargers, Bills werk 16, and Jags. There are also four losses that could be victories. Dallas, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Tennessee. With that the Patriots floor is 7 wins, their ceiling is 14 wins, and the expectation is 10 wins.

Hawaii says goodbye to a Legend

Although he never amounted to anything in the NFL after getting drafted by the Washington football team. Colt Brennan didn't stop trying. He was given a chance to play with the Raiders but didn't make it past the 53 man cut. That would be the last chance to play in the NFL.

His hope's of the NFL were finished when he got into a serious car accident in November of that year. Brennan tried out for the UFL, CFL, and Arena league but playing football just wasn't the cards. However, the car accident would prevent any further attempts due to a brain injury.

In Hawaii Brennan was a legend. He set all types of NCAA records and helped the Rainbow Warriors crack the top 25. In 2006, Brennan threw for 58 touchdowns and over 5500 yards. He would finish 6th in Heisman voting in 2006, and 3rd in 2007. 

Brennan would help the Rainbow Warriors to a 28 and 11 record. With appearances in both the Sugar and Hawaii Bowl. Splitting the bowl games. 

For my fellow New England Patriots fans, the best way I can describe what Brennan meant to Hawaii is Drew Bledsoe. The Same way Bledsoe revived a dead team is exactly what Brennan did for Hawaii. He made hawaii football cool again and gave fans hope that one day, even with the rules rigged against them, that the Rainbow Warriors Nation could one day hoist the National Championship Trophy. 

I don't know much about him outside of football besides the car accident but to those of us who support Hawaii Football, Colt Brennan will always be a legend. It's sad that he past away at age 37 earlier this week. 

ESPN wrote, "Only hours earlier, Colt Brennan had tried to enter a detox program at an area hospital, but he was turned away because there were no beds available."

It's always sad when people in need get turned away from medical facilities. It's even worse when that leads to situations like this. Maybe his death can help lead to changes in the system an extra funding, so that others don't go through the same situation.

There are still some questions around his death but it appears related to pain killers. As the family awaits closure, Vicariously Patriots sends it's condolences. Number 15 will forever be remembered.

Belichick screwed up the offense.

The Patriots built an offense around a strong line and pass catching tight ends, that are essentially tackles that play receiver. The team also had two starting running backs in Sony Michel and Damien Harris. The offense was adaptable to what ever style of offense the Patriots wanted to run. To most the Patriots nailed the draft offensively but there are some that think the Patriots failed on offense.

The areas people are bringing up as the reason why they failed is the Patriots drafted Mac Jones in the first and Stevenson in the fourth. Although Stevenson can help replace Burkhead this year, and might play a bigger role next, while Jones gives the Patriots an accurate quarterback that they haven't had since the 2019 season; they were bad picks. 

Joseph Nocco of Clutch Points wrote about Stevenson, "However, it just seems as though the Patriots could have tabbed a much better player in this position, one that can make an immediate impact come 2021-22."

Everyone knows the fourth round is where impact players are the most plentiful. Silly me. Now Although I had Shelvin from LSU higher on my board and think he would've been more of what the Patriots needed, instead of Barmore; I was happy with Stevenson.

Perhaps the Issue is that the Patriots didn't draft Stevenson to play quarterback. As almost everyone who has an issue with Mac Jones, doesn't care about accuracy and would sacrifice it for running ability. There were many running backs and receivers that could've been drafted at 15 for the Patriots to select. But perhaps that's not the entire issue.

The Patriots used their draft picks to fill their needs. However, they also didn't  love Jones. If they had they would still have holes, and Mac Jones would be getting paid a lot more. They obviously weren't in love with Justin Fields because they could've out bid Chicago. That means they failed to mortgage the future to trade up with the 49ers for Trey Lance. 

It's clearly bad strategy by the Patriots. Mobility and mortgaging the future are what's trending now in the NFL. Everyone is doing it. Belichick had a chance to do both in one fair swoop and failed. This is just another case of Belichick the general manager hurting Belichick the head coach. 

Accurate quarterbacks don't win games. The Patriots needed to draft the next Jamarcus Russell, Tim Tebow, or RG3. Someone needs to tell Belichick this. And you don't plan ahead for the departure of either James White or Sony Michel. You over pay for a veteran or gamble in the draft and ait their replacement next year and struggle through 2022. 

Seriously, the media needs to get over themselves. Belichick has a formula that has worked for twenty years. Just admit you want the Patriots to become the team they were before they drafted Drew Bledsoe and get it over with. The media wants the Patriots to be mediocre but guess what. Not as long as Belichick is still general manager and head coach.

If Gronks cool with Belichick, why is he a Buccaneer?

When Rob Gronkowski was traded to the Buccaneers so that he could come out of retirement, everyone assumed it had something to do with Bill Belichick. Rob Gronkowski went onto ESPN and settled that part of why he left.

Here's what Gronk told Greenberg, “It’s always been a great relationship actually and I’m super blessed just to have the nine years that I had there, big time. I’ve learned so much throughout my time there. But I would say the relationship is fine. I mean, I really haven’t talked to (Belichick) at all since I’ve been traded to the Tampa Bay Bucs, but if I see him in the streets, if I see him out at an event, a football event, wherever it is, a charity event, I have absolutely no problem with him.

I feel like we would just kick it off like we normally would, any event. Talk some football real quick, because you know he’s got to always talk football, and just catch up quick. But I feel like there’ll be no problems at all and we’ll just kick it off like how we normally do.”

Gronk was obviously hurt when he retired from football in 2019. However, the Patriots could've used him in 2020 and could've found a way to extend and adjust his contract for him to play in 2020. So the question is this, if Gronk had no beef with Belichick, what was his beef with the organization? 

Now one could say that he only wanted to play with Brady, that's possible. However, it's also possible that he didnt want to play for the Patriots any longer. It's possible he didn't want to play with Stidham or Newton. Or it could be that they just didn't want him back. 

I mean after all, Gronkowski missed 29 regular season games during his time with the Patriots and lord knows how many playoff games. That's almost two full regular seasons out of his nine with the Patriots. The real issue between Gronkowski and the Patriots; And why he's a Buccaneer, we may never know the whole truth.

Brady playing to 50 is once again becoming a thing.

In October of 2015, Sports illustrated quoted Tom Brady saying he wanted to play another decade. With Brady saying quote, "I’d like to play a long time, yeah, a long time. There’s a lot that goes into playing well. I’ve played with a lot of great teammates, but I want to play for a long time. Maybe 10 more years. I think that’s probably what my goal is.”

Something happened after Brady made those comments. In May of 2017, Brady spoke with ESPN. Here's what he told them. ""I always said my mid-40s, and naturally that means around 45. If I get there and I still feel like I do today, I don't see why I wouldn't want to continue.

If you said 50, then you can say 60, too, then 70. I think 45 is a pretty good number for right now. I know the effort it takes to be 40. ... My love for the sport will never go away. I don't think at 45 it will go away.”

The Patriots were trying to force Brady into retirement is what happened. They had Jimmy Garoppolo, who was set to take over the team. Brady who had always played on his terms, was having the team dictate his career. Even after the Garoppolo trade, Brady was unhappy, and 45 was still the number talked about.

Fast forward to 2021, Brady is in his second year with the Buccaneers and happy again. Jason Licht the Buccaneers general manager spoke about Brady on the Rich Eisen show. Here's what Licht said.

“I told him if he wants to play until he’s 50, and he’s still playing and he feels like he can still play, he can play until he’s 50."

Brady has done his best to set his name in the NFL. We have seen records fall. Dan Marino, Brett Farve, Joe Montana, and  Peyton Manning have all seen records fall to Brady, Brees and others. 

There are two records that it's nearly impossible for a quarterback to get to in the modern NFL. Steve Debergs & Vinny Testaverde both started at age 44. And George Blanda played 19 seasons as a quarterback and retired at age 48 having to convert to kicker. While Starting at age 44 might be breakable, if Brady can Break Blanda's record of playing to 48 without switching positions, it's doubtful any quarterback will ever break that. Thus Tom Brady's name will likely hold a record for 50 years after he retires. 

I Don't Fault The Packers, Rodgers Is A Premadonna

In 2020, the Green Bay Packers drafted Jordan Love, quarterback from Utah state, at pick 26 of the NFL draft. This reportedly upset franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is under contract until he's forty. Becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

In 2018 Aaron Rodgers completion percentage dropped from 64.7 to 62.3. In 2019 it dropped to 62.0. His touchdown pass percentage dropped from 6.7 to 4.2 in 2018 and only climbed to 4.6 in 2019. And his QBR fell from 66 to 58 in 2018 and continued to drop to 52.5 in 2019. His bad throw percentage was 19.4 in 2018 to 21.2 in 2019. His drop percentage was under five percent in 2018 and 2019. And he was on target less than seventy five percent of his throws with a 74.7%. 

In 2019 he had a true completion percentage of 68.7, a clean competition percentage of 72.0. He was 25 in pressured completion percentage, 29 in play action competition percentage, his spoorting cast was ranked 14th and his receivers were first in seperation. And he was protected 85.3% of the time. His production premium ranking for the 2019 according to player profiler was 23rd.

Looking at his adjusted passing on pro football reference, There are a lot of inconsistencies between the 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons. All in all drafting a quarterback to sit and develop behind Rodgers made sense in 2020 and still to this day makes sense. 

Now Aaron Rodgers is coming off a MVP season. Why would it make sense? Look at Tom Brady for that answer. Brady seemed to of lost his fire until Jimmy Garoppolo became a threat. That's what Love did for Rodgers. Rodgers had chased his coach out of town, he grew complacent and was playing like it. The Packers reminded him in the NFL that older players don't have job security, regardless of what they're career resume says. Rodgers to prove he was still the guy worked his butt off and had an MVP season.

To help the offense, the Packers drafted 3 offensive lineman, a running back and a receiver. Making sure that Rodgers won't be ending up on his back. They also got him two guys that can catch. The offense wasn't the only thing the Packers addressed but putting players around Rodgers makes sense if they want to keep him happy.

Let's look back at 2020. They drafted Rodgers a running back, a tight end and 3 offensive linemen. In 2019 they drafted a center, tight end and running back. And because it's the last relevant draft class in 2018 they drafted 3 receivers, and a tackle. That's just the draft, not including what they've done via free agency.

So addressing the offense should not be considered an issue for for the 37 year old quarterback. So what is the problem for the 37 year old quarterback? The problem is, is that at age 36 he was forced to face his own career mortality. He's upset that the Packers could ever think about one day replacing him. Anyone who says "well they didn't talk to him and ask permission to draft a quarterback," doesn't understand how business works. And the Packers are a corporation.

With Rodgers recent history, the number of collarbone and other injuries he's had, the Packers window to get a successor developed is thin. Rodgers contract bought them time and the Packers were never likely to let Love start before his fifth year.

Rodgers coming out and saying how unhappy he is after they have spent that much draft capital on offensive weapons prior to and after the 2021 draft, and after they got rid of McCarthy, just goes to show why he's unbecoming of a franchise quarterback. And why I'm glad the Patriots drafted Mac Jones instead of trading for the premadonna Rodgers.

Mike Lombardi Believes Jones Will Have A Red Shirt Year.

Before the Patriots made a single draft pick in the 2021 nfl draft, the quarterback depth chart went Newton, Stidham, and Dolegala. After the draft, the quarterback room really hasn't changed much. With Dolegala being shown the door with the selection of one Mac Jones.

Currently, Cam Newton is quarterback number one but there is some division over who currently is quarterback number two before Jones and Stidham report in seven days for rookie minicamp. While some fans believe that Jones is the number two guy that could be the starter, not everyone agrees.

Mike Lombardi who has ties to the Pats, spoke about the Patriots depth chart on his podcast and it's clear what he said will not sit well with all fans of the six time superbowl champions.

Lombardi said, "“I think it’s a year [until he becomes the starter]. I think, look, they’re going to coach the [bleep] out of him. They’re going to get him in there, he’s gotta be smart as hell. Here’s what you have to do to play quarterback for the Patriots. You have to have great intelligence. Great intelligence. You have to have really great anticipation with the football. And you gotta be deadly accurate. Those are the things, those are the three things that Mac Jones does.

Give him directions to the weight room. Because I promise you, that body will change. I promise you by April the 30th next year, Mac Jones will look like a different human being. That body will change. Because they’re going to change that body.”

The big knock on the the Patriots last year was they ran the Brady offense. Yeah they added in some option runs for Newton but the passing plays were still designed for a guy who could throw from the pocket and do it accurately. 

Jones won't be asked to run an option, and he'll barely be asked to run but everything else from last year will be the same. Sure they added tight ends but it's still gonna be similar concepts. With that Jones should run the offense better. Jones turns 23 right around week one, so sitting Jones his rookie year should not hurt him.

The thing that made Tom Brady great wasn't just his desire to improve mentally but physically. If I am Jones, at least for the 2021 off season, I am entering the TB12 clinic to work with Brady and learn what he can about how to improve physically. Nothing football related really, just find out how to get a head physically. 

Now while the Patriots are working on getting Jones up to speed, I expect them to play Stidham where they can. They spent a forth on the kid and they're going to want to get some value on him. Right now, he's worth about as much as a UDFA. That's not good because it means he has no trade value. Stidham could be a good long term backup for the Patriots but the Patriots aren't known for keeping backups that long.

With that, when Cam faulters and cost the Patriots games because he's not accurate enough, expect the Patriots to be make the switch to Stidham. Stidham showed in 2020 that he is no less accurate than Cam, with the same decision making abilities. 

The Patriots are reported to have the sixth easiest schedule, so that might not be until November before they have to switch quarterbacks, if Newton can holdout to after Thanksgiving, Stidham might have to fight with Jones to see the field but being that he's now playing for his career, there's more pressure on Cam than just following Brady. With that, I believe cam will be benched by no later than after the second week of October for the 2019 backup who will also be playing for his career.

Sony will be playing for his career in 2021

The Patriots drafted Sony Michel in 2018 and since, Michel has rushed for 2292 regular season yards in 3 seasons, carrying the Patriots to a superbowl 53 victory. On Monday the Patriots decided not to exercise Michel's fifth year option.

Michel was set to make over four million if his option was picked up. Michel is now on a prove it deal, not only for the Patriots but for the entire NFL.

In 2020 Michel started six and played in nine games. He averaged 5.7 yards in 79 Carrie's for a total of 449 yards. That's not bad seeing has he lost his job to Damien Harris but the lack of production in the passing game has really hurt Michel's value. Michel is only averaging just under 9 catches a season for about 80 yards.

Michel must show improvement in year four in the passing game. If Michel stays on his trajectory, he should play in 13 games and rush for around 785 yards. Being that he has to split carries with Harris, a successful year on the ground for Michel will be 500 yards +/- 15 yards on the ground in 17 games. That's figuring he splits time with Harris.

If Michel can find a way to average 4.7 yards or better in 2021, he can see someone playing that money if he stays healthy. However if he is averaging 4 - 4.2 or less, Michel will be lucky to see over two million a season from any team. Honestly I can see the Patriots offering Michel two and a quarter to two and a half million next offseason, question is how bad does Michel want to get paid.

Sapp discovered red flags with Patriots DT Barmore before the draft.

Apparently back in March, Warren Sapp went to work with Christian Barmore to help get him ready for his rookie season. Sapp spoke about his experience with Barmore and Patriots Nation, it wasn't good. Sapp spoke on the Pewter Report podcast.

Sapp said, “Let’s wait for the evaluation because what I saw when I went over to the Yo Murphy Performance (Compound) was not even third-round material.”

Many Patriots fans were saying Barmore was a first round prospect and wanted the Patriots to take him at pick 15. Barmore fell to the team at pick 38. Could teams of seen what Sapp saw or was it coincidence...

Sapp said, “I had a chance to get him on the football field and walk him through the five steps to the quarterback, and if they’re telling me that this is a first round guy then Aaron Donald really did get blocked 70 percent on the double teams. I just promise you this, if these eyes right here that you’re looking at are telling a lie about talent, then shoot me. I won’t talk anymore football. If this kid’s a first-round pick then I won’t talk football (on social media) for a full year. I won’t make a tweet or an Instagram post unless the kids’ playing sports. It’s nothing personal, but I’ll take off a whole year if Barmore is a first-round pick.”

Apparently Barmore didn't impress Sapp. Now it wasn't his job to but if you get the chance to take pointers from a former superbowl champion, you want to do what he says, you want to impress him. Especially since Sapp is a member of the media. It's clear Sapp felt like he wasted his time.

Sapp continued, “I got up at 5:30 a.m. and drove to Tampa to get there by 10:30 a.m., I threw my hat and my lovely ROKA sunglasses . . . I’ve thrown my hat and my sunglasses, and at one point I’m sitting there like, ‘Do this,’ and he’s doing something else. To the point where another person said, ‘You’re not doing that,’ and he looked at both of us like, ‘What?’ So I tried it one more time, and then when he didn’t do it that time I picked up my glasses and my visor and I walked off. I didn’t say another word to anybody. I just left.”

Barmore looked good on television, so would the league scouts notice what Sapp saw in person?

Sapp said, “I guarantee you they do because what you look at as a scout is the eye test on the tape. He was in the National Championship and I thought, ‘that the kid was a baller’ myself. I couldn’t wait to get up [to Tampa to work Barmore out.]”

Sapp talked about why he went to the facility to watch Barmore and what he hoped to accomplish that morning.

Sapp continued, “I’m not coaching you up, I’m just watching what you’re doing to see if I can shave a little corner for you because I’ve watched the position. These eyes aren’t going to lie to me four feet down.”

Sapp had been asked what the issue with Barmore was, was he uncoachable or did he need overly simplistic elongated directions. Sapp's response: 

“Both, If I tell you to swing your left arm and you move your right, I’ve got a real issue – and that’s just one example. Trust me. For me to throw my visor and throw my $300 glasses, I’m telling you. I’m like, ‘Is there something wrong with me?'"

I've heard fans hype Barmore since he was drafted. I've also read a lot of scouting reports on him and the one thing I can say is that almost everything that fans brag about, Reports say he does inconsistently. What I'm saying is temper expectation. Barmore is a 2 down developmental guy to start and if what Sapp says is true, his development could take a lot longer than anticipated. Barmore's reports read like a boom or bust candidate and Sapp's experience suggests bust. Let's hope the Patriots have a better time working with the lad 

We know who but what did the Patriots Draft?

The Patriots' draft is in the book but from the looks of it, it sounds like there are a lot of misconceptions of what to expect from the Patriots draft class. After everything I have read, I will tell you what I see from this class.

Mac Jones. Jones has been compared to Tom Brady & Joe Montana, mid level starters, and bottom tier starters & backups. If you're talking the Tom Brady from 2001, then maybe. Jones should come in between the 16-20 starter range as a rookie. He still needs some development  but he is not Dave Kreig at the end of his career. His speed and mobility are deceptive. He's not going to rush for 400 yards a game but he has the ability to rush for 170 +/- yards a season or 10 yards a game. When defenses give him space to pick up 3-4 yards and slide.

Barmore has been compared to Big Vince. He's strong, versatile and can play anywhere on the defensive line. Unlike Wilfork, he's a better pass rusher than run stopper, and he consistently gets struggles on one on one blocks in the run game. Barmore is more along the lines of Richard Seymour. 

Perkins is an edge rusher for a 4-3 scheme. But he's more suited to be a 3-4 outside linebacker for the Patriots. Like Barmore he's inconsistent in the run game and can struggle to get off blocks. He's probably closer to a Shane McCallian than Rob Nickovich.

Rhamondre Stevenson's was a big bruising back with solid hands but he lost 20 pounds. He's an excellent pass catcher and although he might be a better runner than him, he should be the next Rex Burkhead. 

Cameron McGrone is an athletic linebacker that with some development, should be used the same way the Patriots used Jamie Collins. I'm not saying he's the same freak that Collins was but should be used similarly. McGrone is coming off an Injury and should be redshirted majority of the 2021 season.

Joahuah Bledsoe is another development safety. He is just like Kyle Duggar in that he should be able to come in and also play that hybrid linebacker role. He's also versatile enough to play corner and will probably be one of the teams nickel backs. If he makes the roster, he'll probably be the guy to give Duggar breaks.

William Sherman at the moment should be the swing tackle the team has been looking for since it let Waddle go. He will also serve as an emergency interior lineman. Luckily the Patriots have a solid line so he'll be in development.

Tre Nixon has been compared to Malcolm Mitchell but he's closer to Chris Hogan. He can beat people deep occasionally but he's mainly an intermediate to short route guy. He's also rumored to be selected 100% by Ernie Adams. It's unsure if he has special teams ability but he never played any.

I hope this sheds some clarity to what the Patriots have in this draft. Hopefully we see some UDFAs roll in soon. Until then who's ready for OTAs and rookie minicamp?