Patriots Record Projection Changes.

Before the preseason I had the New England Patriots record projection at 10.5, with a floor of 7 and a ceiling of 14. After the cutdowns that has changed. And not in a good way. How much so and why, let me explain. 

The first problem I saw was Gilmore. Without him, who's playing outside? The Patriots secondary depth is all inside guys and safeties hybrids. They might get lucky and have a guy make due here or there but it's a whole that I expect teams to exploit. Gilmore is out at least six games.

While the Patriots drafted pass rushing defensive tackle Christian Barmore and signed run stopper Davon Godchaux, the team still has a hole. They gave up 145 yards on the ground to Washington, 82 to Philadelphia, and a 96 to New York. Both the Eagles and Giants got away from the run. 

The depth overall. Wide receiver, corner, inside linebacker, defensive tackle, quarterback, tight end, and even offensive line are all unbecoming or suspect. If someone goes down, do they have the next man up? I don't think so, maybe they can develop someone but with their draft history as of late, I wouldn't count on it.

Nordin is inconsistent with high upside and Folk is dealing with his back. When the Patriots need the leg of their kicker can they count on them? Folk is due for a down year and we saw how Nordin looked versus Philly. Now Folk could heal and they could develop Nordin, or they could send Bailey out to kick.

And then there's Mac Jones. Mac got fooled by the Giants trap scheme post snap. So his lack of knowledge of NFL defenses is going to put the Patriots in a spot. It's his experience level and will come with time. On top of that, does he have his emotions under control when things go bad? We saw twice this offseason where he didn't. And as I mentioned with depth, the Patriots really don't have a trustworthy guy to come in if something happens. Mac is much much more accurate than Cam but Newton's experience may be missed.

So with all that my projection has changed. I expect the Patriots to win 8 games. Their floor is 5 games and their ceiling is 11 games. It's not saying the passing game isn't going to be better without Cam because Newton makes mistakes of his own but the team overall has holes that a well run organization can game plan against.