Saturday, March 27, 2021

The only way Cam Newton can take credit for any production increase as a passer is if he's a top eight quarterback.

There are 32 teams in the NFL. If we divided the teams by Good, average, and bad, there would be 10.6 teams of each. There would be 1 team on the cusp of being good and another on the cusp of being bad. Same with their supporting casts. 

The Patriots supporting cast according to playerprofiler.com in 2019 was ranked 17th. That's clearly in the average range. In 2020, the supporting cast was ranked 22nd. In that still below average on the verge of being bad range. They had one of the highest true catch percentages as a group and were ranked 3rd in target separation.

What hurt the supporting cast's production and kept them from being higher was their quarterbacks. Depending on which site we look at, Tom Brady was between 14-17 in ranking in 2019. He jumped to top 5 in 2020. Newton in 2020 was ranked between 27-32. Depending on the site. With majority of his passing analytics falling between 32 and 40.

Both quarterbacks had new playbooks, Terminology and systems to run. Neither had a full offseason. Cam admitted to not knowing the play at the line of scrimmage and started playing bad week 3, one whole week prior to covid. After beating up on the worst option stopping defense and the worst pass stopping defense. 

The Raiders were bad at stopping both. Newton had a terrible first half versus the Raiders and was bailed out by his running backs in the second half because he didn't improve. He looked like Jarrett Stidham that game. Thay wasn't the only time during the 2020 season when Newton looked like Stidham. In fact outside of three or 4 games, Newton looked like Stidham most of the seaaon.

The Patriots tight ends struggled. Izzo held his own as a blocker and put up top 64 tight end stats, trying to be a number one because he was playing above his pay grade as a number one, when he's clearly a number two. The Patriots fixed this by signing Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, shipping the best tight end they had over the last two years off to Houston with their former director of player personnel.

The Patriots brought in two receivers to bolster the depth chart. The Patriots have themselves set up for a run heavy playaction dink and dunk offense. They are still interested in Jimmy Garoppolo who is their plan A. If plan A falls through, they have Cam. 

Of course there reason to think Cam will put up better stats in 2021. He'll of Stidham plays, there's reason to think he'll have better stats because the talent around them is better. So any improvements in production will be a due to the new weapons and not because the 2020 quarterbacks are any good. Did you know if Nathan Peterman played on both the 2020 and 2021 Patriots, he'd be likely to put up better production this season?

Newton's going to have better numbers by default. So how much better does Cam Newton's production have to be for it to be him and not Bourne, Agholor, Smith, Henry, and a healthy Edelman? 

Brady would've put up the same stats in 2020 that he put up in 2019 had he stayed. Because the cast was average. The Patriots significantly upgraded the supporting cast and still have the draft. There's no way anyone can give credit to Newton for improved production if he doesn't at least make the top ten, if not top eight.

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