The first three weeks of this season, I noticed Cam Newton was missing or ignoring open pass catchers. Sometimes he'd throw it to a covered target and other times he'd run. I mainly noticed this towards Ryan Izzo. I read, watch and listen to a lot of sports writers and analysts, least in my opinion. After the Broncos game, analysts started saying that coaches tape showed him ignoring Izzo and other open pass catchers.
Every week starting with the Broncos game, analysts have been saying this. There was also a moment where they said Cam wasn't throwing to his right. That means anyone open to his right was ignored. Now we at home, unless we know where to look, only have what we see on the television, we don't see the full tape.
After the Arizona win, Harry took a lot of heat for when his quarterback was in trouble and having to be directed. Several analysts, including CLNS media, who had someone at the game; pointed out that Harry was open multiple times during the game and even during the one play where Newton had to tell Harry what to do.
Cam Newton has 266 passing plays, 30.6 a game. A protection rate of 81.1%, 21 danger plays and 15 interceptable passes. Newton has throw 9 Interceptions and 3 fumbles. He's ranked 27th with a 71.2% true completion percentage. He is ranked 31st in true passer rating with a 74.8.
Matt Dolloff wrote this after the Patriots beat the Cardinals, "Overall, Newton went 9-for-18 for 84 yards and two interceptions passing - a 23.6 rating. You get a 39.6 if you just spike the ball on every play."
One of the things I have heard and read from analysts is don't confuse completion percentage with accuracy. They pointed out versus Arizona, how although Newton completed the pass to white on the screen pass, that the ball was high.
Mark Daniels wrote after the Arizona game, "The quarterback missed open targets, held the ball for too long and nearly cost the Patriots the win."
Karen Guregain wrote, "FOXBORO — Maybe Bill Belichick wouldn’t admit or acknowledge it after the game, but the thought had to cross his mind about pulling the plug on this not-so-excellent Cam Newton adventure.
Maybe not for the game at hand, but for the rest of the season. That was how it was trending, as Newton was performing that badly against the Cardinals."
Cam is also the Patriots starter until Belichick or Robert Kraft say otherwise. I do my best to support him but as a passer, he is doing just enough but just enough isn't good enough because he's too inconsistent. When Cam is good, he's a top 9-16 quarterback but when he's bad, he's a bottom 8.
Quarterbacks start to decline between 35 and 36 years of age. Cam is a running back who throws, and running backs start decending at 30. There was an analysts who also said something similar recently and I agree.
As a quarterback, Newton is 6-7 years further in his career because his skill revolves around his legs and not his arm. I am one of the few Patriots fans that did not want Newton signed long term after week 2. Who wanted to wait and continue to evaluate him. Who is not excited to see Newton play, thinks the patriots option offense is too slow and thinks Newton has 2 years left as a starter at most.
Check this out, Ryan Izzo has been targeted 19 times with a target rate of 7.6% , 68.4% catchable passes, Target quality 4.4%, and a true catch rate of 92.3. He catches the ball when it's catchable.
His teammate, N'Keal Harry has been targeted 43 times this season or with a target rate of 18.9%, a 65% catchable rate, 3.3% target quality and a true catch rate of 85.7.
In comparison DK Metcalf has 90 targets with a target rate of 23.9%. 76.7 catchable passes, a target separation rate of 7 and a true catch rating of 84. If Harry was thrown more catchable passes his catch rate would be higher but that requires a more accurate passer.
Notice Metcalf has almost twice as many targets as Harry. Part of that reason is Newton doesn't see the field, is staying too long on or throwing to an earlier read or is taking off.
Analysts also mention a play sunday where Newton had Byrd open and threw the ball out of bounds. 5 of Newton's 9 incompletions were on poor throws. These weren't cause he was under pressure and throwing it away.
This was something I noticed earlier this season. Newton would have Izzo wide open and the ball would sail 5 yards above or around him, or Newton would try to force it to a covered receiver while Izzo was open someplace on the screen.
The CLNS pod cast had talked about how Newton's game is the 10-20 yard range and that Cam has no idea how to take anything off. They use that as their explanation for why Newton puts so many balls short and in the dirt. Five yard passes should be a gimme for any quarterback but for Newton, they're harder to hit than 30 yard passes.
Evan Lazar has said repeatedly that Newton "is not a passing drill, timing route quarterback. He's a run around, see it and throw it over your head quarterback." When it's clutch time and the Patriots need a passer, unless they're playing poor defenses, they cannot count on Cam's arm. How anyone could be excited from this, I don't get.
Dolloff continued, "This win at least proves that Bill Belichick is still capable of preparing the roster enough to scratch out a win despite poor quarterback play."
Cam Newton isn't apologizing for his performance, saying he'd take "an ugly win over a pretty loss". At the end of the Day, a win in 75% of what matters. However with five games left and the playoffs still in reach, everyone's individual performances still matter. That leads to a whole can of questions for how the team proceeds.
There has been one question going around and it has been a debate among analysts. Newton is playing to help see what they have with their other guys. However, with how inaccurate Newton is. With how many times he either hangs on to the ball to long, throws it to a covered, or tucks it and runs; how much longer will they leave him in there? His fallacies are hurting the growth and development of the other players, whether anyone wants to admit it or not.
The question then goes to if not Cam, who? Analysts say Stidham is still making young or rookie mistakes and that includes turning the ball over. Now many analysts agree that it his turnover rate could improve as he gains experience on the NFL level. Analysts say that Stidham understands timing routes and is more accurate but again the main knocks on Stidham are that he's in experienced, and both games that he was put in, the game was still in reach and he couldn't handle the pressure and turned it over.
Then the arguement is made that Stidham's play was comparable to Newton's first half versus the Raiders during his first game, and comparable to Newton's performance versus the 49ers in Stidham's second appearance.
I have said that the Patriots need to ride with Newton until they're out of playoff contention but if Sunday's win was a statement win, The Patriots could make the playoffs despite an inconsistent Cam Newton. There are huge problems with that as far as developing players on the offense go.
Another thing I noticed and stated is Tom Brady's 2019 season stats minus 400 yards passing and plus 400 yards rushing are a typical season for Cam Newton. I said that since week one. Newton's passing stats are down by like 300 yards and that includes his one game missed. However, he's still pretty close with exceptions to his touchdown passes.
With the areas Newton is struggling, he could actually be doing more damage than good at developing other pass catchers but his legs give the Patriots the best chance to win. The alternative is a more accurate less mobile and inexperienced Stidham.
So what do the Patriots do? That is the million dollar question. When asked about the quarterback position going forward after Arizona, Belichick didn't sound as confident in Newton as he did after Houston.
Think about this, after returning from injury; In 2009 a 32 year old Brady had a 800+ yard pass catcher, a 700+ pass catcher, a 500+ yard pass catcher, and a 400+ yard pass catcher. His main receiver was Welker who is the equivalent of Julian Edelman. His secondary receiver was a washed up Dion Branch. Newton's on pace to have 4 pass catchers with the same amount of yards.
Here's the one major difference. A 32 year old Brady with nobodies at the end or beginning of their career and that includes inexperienced Hernandez and Gronk but Brady still put up 29 touchdowns all together. Newton with a similar offensive build at 31 is only on pace for 19 total touchdowns this season.
In 2019, Brady had 27 total touchdowns, which is around where Newton is normally and the offense is basically the same. So that's a huge decline in Newton's production.
One cannot use the arguement that Newton had no weapons in Carolina, and then say his stats are down in New England because he has no weapons. The arguements cancel each other out.
There was an arguement that the Patriots would be a better team in 2020, than in 2019 but would have a worse record. Now the question has to be asked, would the team of been better off going with Stidham than Newton.
For those that say "I think we know", with everything Newton has shown us this season including camp in August, with Belichick orginally wanting to sit Stidham another year before Tom left, with the Patriots having confidence in Stidham this spring and summer, and with Belichick telling WEEI the following on around November 4th, "WE DON'T KNOW" if they would've been better off.
Here's what Belichick told 'Ordway, Merloni and Fauria early in November, "Jarrett has improved a lot from last year. He’s a much better player than he was last year. Just want him to continue to track in that positive direction. We’ll just see how it goes.”
Here's my final thought. There are many who will say don't play a young quarterback early, let them sit and develop because the risk of them losing confidence like Josh Rosen apparently did could happen to anyone. This line of thinking is especially true among Patriots nation. So why is Stidham now the exception to that line thinking or is it because he's a Patriots quarterback, or is it because he's not Cam Newton, and how can we be sure that's not what Belichick is doing with Stidham?
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