New England Should Avoid Hopkins Unless They're Sure On What They Have In Their Current Quarterback Room.

The Arizona Cardinals cut DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in football. The Patriots were a rumored trade destination and now the question becomes should they pursue him. The answer is not a clear answer.

The only thing about Hopkins that is a deterrent, is his asking price. Hopkins only played in 9 games in 2022 due to suspension but put up good stats. He caught 64 of 96 passes for over 700 yards but only had 3 touchdown receptions.

So besides money, the next big issue is the Patriots quarterback situation. Bailey Zappe is not a top 32 quarterback and there's questions still on if Mac Jones is a top 32 quarterback.

If the Patriots think Mac is capable of being a long term starter, pursue Hopkins. If they're unsure, Hopkins would give a false read. And they need to pass on him or they'll be looking for a new quarterback in like three seasons when Hopkins is gone.

Fans don't like it but we don't know if Mac Jones is on the ceiling trajectory of Trent Edwards, Kirk Cousins, or Chad Pennington. Sure he's accurate but is he at least a sustainable middle of the pack guy or was last season a true picture of what they have in their former first round draft pick. Although, his stats suggest he would've matched his 2021 stats if he didn't get injured.

Plus if the team thinks Mac Jones is not the long term solution, Hopkins will worsen the draft value making it harder for the team to acquire a decent starting caliber quarterback in the draft. Those guys rarely make it to pick 15. With Hopkins, the team could be drafting around pick 20. Would people rather win a few more games this season or get their quarterback next season?

So, like I said, the answer in if the Patriots should pursue Hopkins is not as crystal clear as some people would think. The Patriots are going to do Patriots things and if they do sign Hopkins. I'm not going to complain now but in a few years when he wants more money and leaves, if Mac struggles, I will say I told you so.

The Patriots Should Be Equal To The 2021 Patriots

What do I see with the New England Patriots heading into 2023? I'm not sure there's enough to write a full blog on. Since rookie mini camp is just about finished, I'll give it a go.

The Patriots from a coaching perspective should be ad good as they were in 2021. Troy Brown was a good player but he's yet to show he cam develop receivers. O'Brien and Klemm should return the play calling and offensive line to respectable play.

I don't expect much change on defense. If Gonzalez can come in and play like a number two, to start his career and Jack Jones can play like a number two, the Patriots should be set at corner. The Patriots have enough defensive backs to replace McCourty but will they is the question.

On offense the Patriots have three questions. Who replaces Damien Harris, Will Gesicki make any impact and can JuJu be as productive as Meyers. Looking at the Patriots offense, JuJu is the make or break for the team having the same success it had on offense in 2021 and I think he will be fine.

With Judge returning to special teams, the team should return to normal. Yeah, the team drafted some new legs but I think it was more fundamentals on that side of the ball than anything. Judge will correct that. Judge is a smart coach that needs to learn defense as he cannot run offense but being a special teams coordinator isn't a bad gig.

Overall, I expect the Patriots to be no better and no worse than the 2021 Patriots. Is that good enough to make the playoffs in 2023, I don't know. Belichick screwed up the team in 2022. And so who knows what the 2023 version is truly capable of.

The Patriots Could Move Bourne

Kendrick Bourne didn't have a good 2022 season and it was thought that he was in the dog house  to explain his lack of production. Bourne is in the final year of his contract and the Patriots have one too many receivers on the roster with 53 man potential.

In 2021 Bourne caught 55 of 70 passes and has caught 90 of 118 passes with 6 drops as a Patriot. In 2021 he also had 800 yards and 5 touchdowns. He's gonna catch the ball and he's good for 40 yards a game.

Both Patriots rookies need development. They cannot get proper development if they're placed on the injured reserve. Kayshon Boutte can do everything Bourne can do but right now, Bourne is set to take away practice snaps away from Boutte.

Bourne didn't play in all 17 games in 2022 and was down in playing time by 8% of offensive snaps. However, he showed he was capable of putting up the previous season production when given time.

Bourne is worth a 5th to a 6th round pick. I know fans aren't gonna like hearing that but people know the team wants to move him. And the team knows if they cut their rookies, they're most likely gone and not seeing the practice squad.

The ideal situation is to wait until August and to see how the rookies perform and if one is drastically not ready, they put him on the IR. If both rookies look decent, They move Bourne. However, windows in the NFL close quickly and the team may not have that luxury. So if Bourne gets moved before August, people know why.

Expect A Heavy Roster Battle Coming Behind Stevenson In New England.

The New England Patriots currently have six running backs on the roster. The Patriots like to keep three running backs on the roster, four if the guy has special teams value. Since none of the others have the versatility of Brandon Bolden, which of the five are going to make the roster behind Stevenson?

The media has been calling for the Patriots to sign one of the remaining high priced names on the market. I'm against the Idea but it's not impossible that the Patriots do so. Until they do, I'm not giving it merit.

My thoughts on J.J. Taylor and Ty Montgomery haven't changed. I still view both as practice squad guys. And the Patriots apparently don't think much of Montgomery as they list him as a receiver on their website.

In 2022, the Patriots drafted Kevin Harris, a power back and Pierre Strong Jr. At the time, many thought Harris was drafted to replace Damian Harris, while Strong was to replace White. While Stevenson got to show he's capable of being a three down back, the rookies didn't get to show much. 

The Patriots signed James Robinson this offseason. Many thought he was being brought in strictly to be a power back to replace Damian Harris. However, although he didn't get a lot of playing time in 2022, he did in the previous two seasons. 

His first two seasons, he caught 80 of 106 targets for 566 yards with 24 first downs and 3 touchdowns. In 2022, he caught 11 of 14 passes for 5 first downs and 2 touchdowns. 

Robinson is a three down back. With his skill set, neither Strong or Harris is a roster lock. Currently of the three, Strong projects as the safest cut to the practice squad. That could change come the end of August. So expect a heavy competition with five of the six backs being on the bubble.

Cam Newton Finds The Headlines Again.

I was a huge critic of Cam Newton coming to New England. I called out Newton's play while fans were screaming to sign him to a long term contract. And after he left, one of if not the last article I wrote about Cam Newton, I defended Newton's ability to be a backup quarterback in the NFL.

Since that article. Newton has continued to talk crap about the starting quarterbacks in the league and even gave a list of guys he would be willing to backup. Both limit his ability to get signed by an NFL team.

Cam recently spoke and said the following,“It’s been hinted. And I’m not changing. People have hinted to where they say like, ‘Cam, we want you to go back to the 2015 clean-cut Cam.’ But, that was a different me. The thing that is always mentioned is, ‘Cam, you’re scaring people with how you look.’”

When Newton played with the Patriots, he did take criticism for his style but that was not why he lost his job to Mac Jones and everyone knows it. Newton would end up back in Carolina in 2021 and couldn't beat out P.J. Walker.

In 2021, Newton played in 8 games, starting 5. He completed only 54.8% of his passes for 684 yards with 4 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Newton did rush for 5 touchdowns but he fumbled 4 times. Adding Newton's rushing and passing stats together, he only averaged 114 a game over the 8 games.

According to player profiler, from a clean pocket, Cam only completed 60% of his passes. And his true completion percentage. Which is on him, was only 57.5%. And in his last year he was protected 79.4% of the time. So 4 out of every 5 passes, so he cannot blame the line.

Newton is an inaccurate quarterback that cannot except that his play hasn't been good enough. I don't front him for wanting to decline on some locations but his comments hurt his ability to get signed. Which doesn't help because his play hasn't been good in a long time. 

Newton is a scheme fit quarterback that New England tried to help become a pocket quarterback. His Mechanics were crap. Newton didn't understand some of the position when he came to New England. When it came out that Mac Jones was teaching him,  He denied it and in the same interview said it was the centers job to identify things, showing or telling what Mac was teaching him.

If he wants to play in the NFL, he needs to shut up, put his head down and find a quarterback school that can teach him how to be a pocket passer. He's not likely to get signed in 2023, so he should take the season to transform his mechanics and to learn the part of his game he's lacking. It's improbable that Newton will do that because he thinks currently his skills make him a starter. I'm not going to disrespect Newton but he's got to self reflect and help himself or his career is over.

Mapu Is A Linebacker And No Reason Currently Shown Why Sow Can't Play Tackle

Entering the 2023 draft some thought that the Patriots needed a tackle and an athletic linebacker. According to the team's draft, they drafted three interior offensive lineman and a linebacker. The team has expressed interest in turning one of those guards into a tackle. 

If you ask fans, the team is not allowed to try players at different positions and they drafted a safety, not a linebacker, even though it was linebacker announced during the draft.

Sow is 6'4", 323 pounds with a 33 inch arm length and 10 inch hands. Sow's measurements are all nearly identical or very close to Isaiah Wynn, Yodney Cajuste and Calvin Anderson. Let's be honest, if Wynn had never been hurt, he would be the team's starting left tackle. Sow's athleticism is except for the 40 time, a little worse than Calvin Anderson.

As for Marte Mapu, he would be one of the lightest linebackers in the NFL. And he wouldn't have to put on weight. Nicholas Morrow has played in 79 games, starting 46, including all 17 in 2022. He's only a hair faster than Mapu and his size is 6'0" 225 pounds but at one point was 216 pounds. Mapu is 6'3", 216 pounds. So there's no reason to assume he cannot play the position, unless he shows he's unable. And if they really want him to gain 10 pounds, feed him McDonald's for a week.

When it comes to both players, it's going to come down mainly to coaching. Klemm, Mayo and Steve Belichick are going to have to show they can develop players. I haven't seen them play, so I do not know how much work is needed. I would assume they nees season but they could be ready by week one. Then again, they might not be ready until 2025.

If Mac Has Another Bad Season, Do The Patriots Pull The Plug On Him For 2024?

Mac Jones was voted 85th of the top 100 players entering 2022. And he made a pro bowl after the his rookie season in 2021. It was looking like the Patriots had found their franchise quarterback but that came to an end quickly because his offensive coordinator took a promotion elsewhere and his 2022 season went to shit.

A fan asked Masslive if Mac has a repeat season in 2023, do the Patriots move on from him. It's a good question but it unless the circumstances are met, it wouldn’t happen until 2025.For Mac to lose his job in 2024, one of three things would need to happen.

First, one of the other three quarterbacks currently on the roster would have to beat him out and show they can clearly operate the offense better than Mac. 

Second, there would have to be a free agent that was a significant upgrade to Mac Jones. With how Washington handled the Kirk Cousins franchise tag, setting precedence, don't expect Baltimore not to tag Jackson again in 2024. So the Patriots getting a free agent upgrade is slim.

Third, the Patriots would have to draft a quarterback that can beat out Mac, the way he beat out former starter, Cam Newton. 

These things are improbable but not impossible for 2024. Which is why if Mac has a bad season in 2023, he'll most likely have one more year to make himself trade bait. 

The thing that fans need to understand is that 3,200 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10-14 interceptions and completing 65% of his passes would be a successful season. Statistically, since that's what most fans go by. That would make him a top 16 quarterback based of 2022 stats. 

Mac's Accuracy and decision making would have to fall off a cliff, for his play to cost him his job. Having a competent offensive coordinator, the only way Mac falls off that cliff is if he forgets how to play football and tries to play like a gun slinger and turns into Eli Manning.

Traditional Base Defenses And Traditional Defenders Are Basically Obsolete.

The NFL is changing. Teams are getting away from the heavier formations and the fullback has become basically obsolete. Tight end are now more often bigger receivers than blockers. And defenses must evolve. In this article are three defensive formations that the NFL should be transitioning to.

It's not just the defensive formations that must evolve. The players must evolve. The term "hybrid: has been thrown around for a few years now. What's considered hybrid must become the new normal outside of nose tackle, outside cornerback and free safety.

Defensive tackles must become true defensive Linemen. Defensive ends must become outside linebackers capable of dropping into coverage. Linebackers must double as either a defensive end or safety. Strong safeties must be also be linebackers or slot corners. Slot corners should double as one of the other defensive back positions. Positionless football has become a term and for the most part, the players must simply be defenders.

So the three formations that the NFL must adopt are the 3-3-5, the 3-2-6, and the 3-1-7. This doesn't mean only three guys have their hands in the dirt, it means every team should have 1 nose tackle, two defensive Linemen and a bunch of defensive backs on the field with very few "linebackers." Having linebackers as hybrids means technically having either more DBs or DLs on the field. These three formations are all about deception. For years I called for a 5-0-6 defense but I realized, I just wanted the 3-2-6 with the linebackers on the line.

So what is the 3-3-5 nickel defense? According to Coach Martin of football advantage, "It allows for great flexibility to defend against both the pass and the run, especially when more and more offenses are running more multiple wide receiver sets and out of more shotgun formations."

Iana boyd of Sportstreatise said this about the 3-2-6 dime defense, "The 3-2-6 is basically a recognition that the 3-4 isn’t optimal for defending spread offenses and the expansion of a dime package into a base defense. Texas embraced the 3-2-6 last season when it became clear that A) spread offenses didn’t have a great answer for the two-robber coverage and B) Texas was better as an all around defense by playing more versatile athletes (i.e. four safeties) rather than specialists."

These two formations have a minimal 2 corners and 1 free safety. Which allows defense to create confusion because by mixing up the other defensive backs.

Nathan D of fourvertsfootball said this about the 3-1-7 quarter defense, "A quarter defense is used in situations in which you do not want to allow long or intermediate passes. This defense is meant specifically to stop passing situations as it is not effective against the run."

The quarter defense typically has 4 corners and three deep safeties but there's no reason why it has to be mandatory. Why not two outside corners, two free safeties and three box safeties? It's all about creativity.

Basically the nickel and dime defense listed are the first and second down base defense and quarter basically becomes the third and long, and passing down defense. The three four personal is basically never needed because the safeties just move down to become the missing linebackers. Maybe teams keep one thumper linebacker for when they're in the nickel but it's not really needed.

I'm not going to write a full article on offense but the team that learns to use the H-back tight ends as running backs, move tight ends as receivers and goes five tight end exclusively, will dominate the NFL. As the size matchups will create a nightmare for all defenses. The Patriots ran a 4 TE set a few years back but McDaniels couldn't figure out how to use the H-back position. 

The New England Patriots 2023 NFL Draft Class.

All 15 of the Patriots 2023 Draft class need work. While it may vary on the amount the coaches have work to do. Especially Troy Brown. Many of these guys have low floors with starting potential. It's going to be interesting to see how their competitions go and who catches the Foxboro flu.

Gonzalez is a former 4 star prospect. A shutdown cornerback that is almost elite in man and better in zone. While he'll play outside, he is versatile enough to be moved around. He would be a day one starter for most teams. Whether that is true for the Patriots depends on how complicated their playbook. He fell so far down the board, meaning there's something there that teams we're happy with. As he was projected in the top 5 by many.

White is big and versatile run defender. A former tight end who has past ankle issues and is raw at the position. His ceiling has been called into question and some reports had him as a mid day two prospect. While needed to go to a team with a strong defensive position coach. Bill Belichick may not be a position coach but he is one of the best defensive coaches in league history.

Mapu is a hybrid linebacker without a true position. His traits best fit a nickel or dime defensive scheme but he should be able to contribute to special teams. His traits as a former receiver get overlooked but he uses them well in coverage. His tackling may be better than some think. Some were upset at Belichick for taking him in the third but after average as many respectable reports as possible. His average projection was round 3.9, getting mad because the team took a late third rounder in the mid third is silly. 

Andrews is an anchor from D2 with power. His athleticism and size have been called into question but lately it seems if an offensive lineman doesn't have specific measurements, they're ruled inferior. He's an angry run blocker that excels in the quick game. He's got the ability to play all three interior spots but his game improved at center.

Ryland has the leg but his accuracy has been called into question. However each of the past 3 years he's been over 80% averaging 84.5% during span. He's automatic on extra points. And was good over half the time on kicks longer than 50 yards.

Sow is a slow and nasty run defender. Who's a raw mauler. With his experience, he is a utility lineman, capable of playing all 5 spots. He has good size and some think he's more athletic than being given credit for.

Mafi is a raw prototype interior lineman. That made thr swap from interior defensive lineman. While some think he's got starting potential, his reports read as someone who needs a red shirt year to develop. 

Boutte is a versatile Z receiver that some wanna type cast as a slot. His arrival should spell the end of Kendrick Bourne after thus season, if not sooner. He's a guy known for his ability to get yac. Unfortunately, he's a receiver with ankle issues. Even though he had a down year, some scouts still compared him to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If he hits his ceiling, the Patriots have a true number one.

Baringer big leg that kicks them low and long. He's gonna need some development as either he gives too much room / time for returns or he puts the ball in the endzone. He might of been drafted but he has to be coming in as the underdog in the competition.

Douglas is undersized and it seems to be the main reason for his late round status. He's slot and return man. Shifty and elusive are the two words almost every scout used to describe him. For fans that wanted another Welker or Amendola, if Douglas sticks around, you'll have you're guy.

Speed is a underdeveloped fast cover corner who maybe better suited to play a one high safety than a corner. He offers special teams value while the Patriots figure out what they're going to do with him. His 4.3 speed offers value against some of the faster pass catchers they'll face.

Bolden is another defensive back with blazing speed who excels in man coverage and has special teams ability. I really didn't read a lot to explain why the former 4 star prospect went so late, except that he was from the southwestern athletic conference.

Cunningham a smaller passer that is a cross between Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. His arm has the same cons as Mac and Zappe and he trades athleticism for accuracy like most running quarterbacks. I didn't read one report that said he was coming cerebal but there were quite a few that said he need to improve on decision making and compared him to wildcat quarterbacks.

Lumpkin is an underutilized inline tight end, who can play in the slot. He shows flashes of talent as a pass catcher. And he's hard to bring down. He's worth keeping around just for his blocking. He's a basement level floor with a high ceiling.

Jourdan Heilig is a special teams player without a true position on defense. Everything I've read on him, he reads like Nate Ebner only he's more of a backup nickle linebacker. Out of the three undrafted guys, he's got to have the worst odds of making the 53 man roster in September.

That's 15 guys. Cunningham is not going anywhere with his contract. As for the other two, the Patriots said some of the guys in this class were taken before they had the chance. That is probably true for the undrafted guys as well. If I'm being honest, the only guy that helps the 2023 team is Gonzalez. There's a chance the rest can but I don't expect any of the others to make an impact before 2024.